Agriculture
These areas are trying to plant the next Winter Wheat crop but the dry weather and the dry soils are keeping farmers out of the fields. It also covers the commodities market daily focusing on in-depth technical developments in GOLD, CRUDE OIL, SILVER, CORN & WHEAT. Overseas weather remains variable for Wheat production. The Dollar has turned trends up and this is hurting Wheat prices. General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were lower on the higher US Dollar.
Currencies
In this article, I would like to outline three reasons to short the Australian dollar against the Canadian dollar (short AUD/CAD). Figure 4 shows that the short US dollar trade is still very crowded as net short specs have risen to 245K contracts, their highest level since early 2018. Not even the bond market managed to rally even with the stock market selling off and a strong dollar. In other words, no change, although with the dollar trading near session lows after it early rampage, it appears that downward momentum has for now been reversed.
Like other precious metals, palladium has been hurt by a marked rebound in the dollar, pressuring prices lower. Based on the 24-month running bond spreads correlations, I have calculated that the is overvalued by while the Canadian dollar is overvalued by only . Now to the extent that this resistance here holds and the dollar reverses market can rally again and with it recently battered metals. Conversely, the Canadian dollar is one of the most undervalued currencies.
The dollar held onto its gains versus the Japanese Yen and extended higher for the fifth day in a row against the Swiss Franc. Over the past week, the sell-off has been predominantly driven by the renewed dollar strength. Via SchiffGold.com, The markets are getting clobbered this week with the exception of the US dollar, which hit a 2-month high. The Dollar tumbled intraday, ending the 4-day win streak and biggest surge since March…
Source: FXCM, Bluegold Trader (website), personal calculations What is important is that the relative undervaluation of the Canadian dollar is rather broad-based. Source: Bloomberg Bitcoin managed some decent gains as the dollar sank today… We view the firmer dollar as a short-term phenomenon, expecting the reflation theme to prevail in 2021. However, the relative overvaluation of the Australian dollar is less extensive. What would reverse the dollar? Conversely, the Canadian dollar is down 0.9% y-o-y.
Like other precious metals, palladium has been hurt by a marked rebound in the dollar, pressuring prices lower. Based on the 24-month running bond spreads correlations, I have calculated that the is overvalued by while the Canadian dollar is overvalued by only . Now to the extent that this resistance here holds and the dollar reverses market can rally again and with it recently battered metals. Conversely, the Canadian dollar is one of the most undervalued currencies.
The dollar held onto its gains versus the Japanese Yen and extended higher for the fifth day in a row against the Swiss Franc. Over the past week, the sell-off has been predominantly driven by the renewed dollar strength. Via SchiffGold.com, The markets are getting clobbered this week with the exception of the US dollar, which hit a 2-month high. The Dollar tumbled intraday, ending the 4-day win streak and biggest surge since March…
Source: FXCM, Bluegold Trader (website), personal calculations What is important is that the relative undervaluation of the Canadian dollar is rather broad-based. Source: Bloomberg Bitcoin managed some decent gains as the dollar sank today… We view the firmer dollar as a short-term phenomenon, expecting the reflation theme to prevail in 2021. However, the relative overvaluation of the Australian dollar is less extensive. What would reverse the dollar? Conversely, the Canadian dollar is down 0.9% y-o-y.
Metals
If the basis stays down, that means the silver market is markedly tighter at $24.50 than it was at $26.75.” This brings us to yesterday’s silver dive. But even if the markets were right, the stock market needs Fed stimulus a lot more than gold and silver do. With an inception year of 2006, the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is the oldest ETF containing physical silver, held by a third party in New York and London. Gold and silver are going down, but they don’t need the Fed to commit to even more aggressive monetary policy than its already committed to.
We think that going long silver at current levels would almost be equivalent in turning bullish again in stocks, and therefore does not offer a good diversification for investors. Eventually, that’s going to change.” Imagine what will happen in the gold and silver markets when these folks become outright bulls like Peter. Like the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), SLV provides a vehicle to invest in silver for entities that cannot invest in the physical metal.
What it’s already committed to is more than enough to send gold and silver prices substantially higher than they are right now. … So, if you’re worried that we’re not going to get more stimulus, you shouldn’t be selling gold and silver. Peter said he doesn’t think there’s a lot more downside to gold and silver. Source: Bloomberg, Orchid Research Other precious metals like silver and platinum have suffered even more over the past week, as can be seen below.
Gold was down nearly $40 yesterday and silver hit a 7-week low. I think there’s more fear in the gold market, certainly in the mining stock market, than there is greed.
But to the extent that they’re right, at least in the short-run, this is much worse news for the stock market than it is for the gold market. That means the abundance of silver to the market at $22.80 is not much less than it was at $26.75. Do not buy the dip on silver, it is still too early! As a vote of confidence, pre-IPO shareholder Silver Lake is buying $100 million worth of shares in the offering! 24, 2020 1:32 PM ET|| About: Eldorado Gold Corporation (EGO)by: SA TranscriptsThe following slide deck was published by Eldorado Gold Corporation in conjunction with this event.
Is silver done for the rest of the year? A few days ago, we wrote about a big silver crash.
We think that going long silver at current levels would almost be equivalent in turning bullish again in stocks, and therefore does not offer a good diversification for investors. Eventually, that’s going to change.” Imagine what will happen in the gold and silver markets when these folks become outright bulls like Peter. Like the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), SLV provides a vehicle to invest in silver for entities that cannot invest in the physical metal.
What it’s already committed to is more than enough to send gold and silver prices substantially higher than they are right now. … So, if you’re worried that we’re not going to get more stimulus, you shouldn’t be selling gold and silver. Peter said he doesn’t think there’s a lot more downside to gold and silver. Source: Bloomberg, Orchid Research Other precious metals like silver and platinum have suffered even more over the past week, as can be seen below.
Gold was down nearly $40 yesterday and silver hit a 7-week low. I think there’s more fear in the gold market, certainly in the mining stock market, than there is greed.
But to the extent that they’re right, at least in the short-run, this is much worse news for the stock market than it is for the gold market. That means the abundance of silver to the market at $22.80 is not much less than it was at $26.75. Do not buy the dip on silver, it is still too early! As a vote of confidence, pre-IPO shareholder Silver Lake is buying $100 million worth of shares in the offering! 24, 2020 1:32 PM ET|| About: Eldorado Gold Corporation (EGO)by: SA TranscriptsThe following slide deck was published by Eldorado Gold Corporation in conjunction with this event.
Is silver done for the rest of the year? A few days ago, we wrote about a big silver crash.
Oil
Crude Value Insights offers you an investing service and community focused on oil and natural gas. Source: Bloomberg Despite Oil’s modest gains, XOM slipped lower, pushing its dividend yield above 10% once again!… They are also used on buses and trucks for compressed hydrogen and natural gas.
United States
Investors also found comfort in the comments from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin who said he will resume talks with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on another economic relief package. In fact, I think the Fed is going to be much easier, money is going to be much looser, as far as monetary policy, than almost anybody believes. The lawsuit appears to be based partly on aspects of the Trump’s family inheritence that were first reported by the NYT two years ago.
So, as I said earlier, I think the markets are wrong in thinking that the Fed is not going to deliver more stimulus. Which means that if Biden wins and for whatever reason Brainard is passed over the Treasury job, which may well become the next Fed chair. He’s also made it clear that the US government can run even bigger deficits and the central bank has its back. The markets want to know that more money is coming now, not just the more money that the Fed has already committed to. Various investigations into President Trump’s financial dealings continue, but apparently Mary Trump – who reported in her book that her uncle once complimenter “her figure” by exclaiming ‘Wow, Mary.
We suspect a solid settlement and an NDA will soon be signed, and Mary Trump will go back to being the relatively anonymous niece of the president. Capacity utilization in the US has averaged around 71% over the last two months, which is still 8% lower than the long-run (1972-2019) average of c.79%. Of course, the action of the Fed will be decisive for the evolution of the market until the end of the year (or at least until November 3).
The Fed ended the normalization process, they started the “non-QE” REPO injections a few months later, and Donald Trump promised “a huge trade deal” with China. Fed Chairman Powell’s comments were identical to recent days as he continued to call on the federal government to provide more stimulus. The Covid-19 sell-off was a bigger test for the “Fed put” narrative (aka “stocks only go up”).
But her antipathy to Wall Street and progressive views would worry the finance industry, which has long feared her legislative and regulatory wrath.
The underlying momentum in the durable goods segment is heartening, and this also ties in with the confidence demonstrated by manufacturers in the US. Wall Street and many investors’ expectations for Zoom are too far above the reality of what the company can deliver looking forward. When I ran the LPPLS model in July, it suggested that the Nasdaq was driven by euphoria since March, expecting a crash “by the end of the summer” (i.e. Because if nothing else, this lawsuit shows why Trump started working with the media in the first place.
One of the big drivers of the sell-off was the perception that the Fed might be done with stimulus.
So, as I said earlier, I think the markets are wrong in thinking that the Fed is not going to deliver more stimulus. Which means that if Biden wins and for whatever reason Brainard is passed over the Treasury job, which may well become the next Fed chair. He’s also made it clear that the US government can run even bigger deficits and the central bank has its back. The markets want to know that more money is coming now, not just the more money that the Fed has already committed to. Various investigations into President Trump’s financial dealings continue, but apparently Mary Trump – who reported in her book that her uncle once complimenter “her figure” by exclaiming ‘Wow, Mary.
We suspect a solid settlement and an NDA will soon be signed, and Mary Trump will go back to being the relatively anonymous niece of the president. Capacity utilization in the US has averaged around 71% over the last two months, which is still 8% lower than the long-run (1972-2019) average of c.79%. Of course, the action of the Fed will be decisive for the evolution of the market until the end of the year (or at least until November 3).
The Fed ended the normalization process, they started the “non-QE” REPO injections a few months later, and Donald Trump promised “a huge trade deal” with China. Fed Chairman Powell’s comments were identical to recent days as he continued to call on the federal government to provide more stimulus. The Covid-19 sell-off was a bigger test for the “Fed put” narrative (aka “stocks only go up”).
But her antipathy to Wall Street and progressive views would worry the finance industry, which has long feared her legislative and regulatory wrath.
The underlying momentum in the durable goods segment is heartening, and this also ties in with the confidence demonstrated by manufacturers in the US. Wall Street and many investors’ expectations for Zoom are too far above the reality of what the company can deliver looking forward. When I ran the LPPLS model in July, it suggested that the Nasdaq was driven by euphoria since March, expecting a crash “by the end of the summer” (i.e. Because if nothing else, this lawsuit shows why Trump started working with the media in the first place.
One of the big drivers of the sell-off was the perception that the Fed might be done with stimulus.
China
Liu Jianshun, a Beijing-based retail investor, said he found a “sense of belonging” from debating stock prices on East Money’s chat platform, known as Guba. According to the Caller, Jianming during the mid-2000s for the China Association for International Friendly Contacts – a PLA front group which engages in “intelligence collection” for Beijing.
Europe
The ECB projects that the economy will contract 8% this year, and the inflation rate has fallen below zero for the first time in four years. In other words, the ECB is paying banks to take cash which they should then lend out, at least in theory. According to Bloomberg, the ECB could undermine its own influence over short-term market rates.
0 
