Daily Close | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture July 20, 2020

The US weather is considered good for growing Soybeans at this time but forecasts call for hot and dry weather in the next few days. Dan’s daily newsletter, The Corn & Ethanol Report, gives a unique insight and perspective into these market sectors, covering various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. The Soybeans could be supportive with that situation has the commodity at much tighter supplies than the corn side. Many Soybeans appear short in the central Midwest right now. China has become a much more active buyer of Soybeans here in the US and has promised to ramp up purchases in order to comply with commitments it made under the Phase One trade deal. Spring Wheat was developing under good growing conditions and futures prices closed lower. The Winter Wheat markets are in up trends on the weekly charts. Check Out These Dividend ETFs By Tezcan Gecgil/Investing.com – Jul 20, 2020 2 U.S. Dollar: No Love with COVID-19 Cases at Record Highs By Kathy Lien – Jul 17, 2020 27 More Analysis We started Monday with Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month and 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M. and Crop Progress at 3;00 P.M. On the corn front, China buying to meet their quotas did not seem to faze the market.

We still have warm weather and rain forecasted mid-week which could pressure corn even further. Soybean trade was higher in the overnight which may somewhat support corn as I said earlier, but with the weather fundamentals I would be watching fund activity. We will see weekly Export Inspections and Crop Progress reports today. He offers brokerage services to an international clientele … more Mr. Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. We are having a hot July with plenty of moisture which is good for corn. The amount of corn used for ethanol production was 467 million bushels below average for the period.

China has remained a very active buyer in South America even as it has increased Soybeans buying here in the US, so the overall amount taken from the US might not match the hopes of the trade. Winter Wheat markets were slightly lower at the close last week as the Winter Wheat harvest expanded north and started to get complete. Spring Wheat markets show downtrends as good conditions are also reported in much of Canada. The plague could harm wheat, canola and barley crops in the western part of Rio Grande do Sul state. Mr. Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. Brazil prices have been creeping higher for the rest of the world as it starts to run out of Soybeans to export, so China and the rest of the world will look to the US and Argentina for additional supplies. Ideas are that USDA will show slight improvement in crop conditions this week after rains hit much of the belt last week.

In the overnight electronic session, the December corn s currently trading at 335 ¾ which is 4 cents lower.

Check Out These Dividend ETFs By Tezcan Gecgil/Investing.com – Jul 20, 2020 2 Opening Bell: U.S. Futures, Stocks Fall; Euro Gains On Stimulus… By Pinchas Cohen/Investing.com – Jul 20, 2020 1 U.S. Dollar: No Love with COVID-19 Cases at Record Highs By Kathy Lien – Jul 17, 2020 27 More Analysis Recent market trends have shown that precious metals continue trading higher as the aftermath of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has been calculated by global economists in an attempt to understand the long-term economic effects of its presence. For Activision Blizzard, the key metric to watch is bookings – which is the dollar amount that players spend on games. In order to relieve the suffering of those that found themselves suddenly unemployed, Congress approved $600 a week unemployment bonuses as part of the 2.2 trillion dollar CARES Act that it passed in March… The $600 weekly payments from the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation program were put in place as part of the $2.2 trillion CARES Act that Congress passed in late March amid the coronavirus pandemic.

less 20, 2020 2:58 PM ETby: WWS Swiss Financial Consulting SAWWS Swiss Financial Consulting SA Debt, long-term horizon, contrarian, investment advisorWWS SFC SASummaryThe US government is spending too much.The US dollar is not irreplaceable.Various scenarios.This article speculates on what could happen should the US dollar depreciate considerably. Like gold, silver tends to be greatly influenced by the fluctuations in the dollar and US real rates. The E&P clients are hedged through the remainder of the year, however, with a continued lower for the longer oil price, CADE could be forced to write down reserve bases and thus lending risk increases even if the dollar value of the loan does not change. “Over by Christmas” might well have also applied where British leap-frogging in 1914 led, as the key Euro-summit that has been dragging on since Friday dragged on until the early hours of Monday morning; you know, the urgent summit to try to shape the apparently-Rubicon-crossing fiscal package that will help Europe recover from the same virus the UK thinks will be over by 25 December anyway.

In the intro, Jack Farley places in context recent movements in the dollar, yen, and euro. That compares to the rest of the trillion-dollar club—Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), and Alphabet (GOOG)—which added a collective 45.81 bps to the S&P 500. The Australian dollar will be in focus tonight with the RBA minutes and speech by RBA Governor Lowe on the calendar. Source: Bloomberg The dollar dropped back to its recent range lows… Check Out These Dividend ETFs By Tezcan Gecgil/Investing.com – Jul 20, 2020 2 U.S. Dollar: No Love with COVID-19 Cases at Record Highs By Kathy Lien – Jul 17, 2020 27 More Analysis We started Monday with Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month and 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M. and Crop Progress at 3;00 P.M. On the corn front, China buying to meet their quotas did not seem to faze the market.

But intense pushback made him add a 652-million euro cash sweetener to the all-share deal, boosting the premium to about 45%. The Fed tightening policies can strengthen the dollar and translate into downside for gold. For the latest news, sign up for our Covid-19 podcast and daily newsletter.Here are today s top storiesEuropean Union leaders were given a new compromise proposal for a 750 billion-euro ($858 billion) economic recovery fund as negotiations continued through a fourth day. Like gold, silver has benefited from a very favorable macro environment, reflected in the steep decline in the dollar and short-term US real interest rates. However, if the talks break down, the euro, which has been in a consistent uptrend this month, will sink in disappointment. The US Dollar Dollar Index (.DXY) was more than 0.1% lower. Source: Bloomberg, Orchid Research The macro-environment for SGOL has become increasingly positive since June, reflected in the steep fall in the dollar and long-term US real interest rates.

Because the dollar depreciates and short-term US real rates move lower, speculators are inclined to assert more upside exposure to COMEX silver. The EU appears to have reached a compromise on its 750 billion-euro emergency aid plan. Treasuries pushed higher, and elsewhere, Italy s 10-year bond yield spread over Germany, a key gauge of risk in the euro region, fell to the lowest level since March. Michael is also the author of the book “The Coming Bond Market Collapse: How to Survive the Demise of the U.S. Debt Market.” Prior to starting PPS, Michael served as a senior economist and vice president of the managed products division of Euro Pacific Capital. Investment demand is expected to continue to increase in the near term as a result of the very friendly macro environment for gold and silver, which is reflected in the decline in the dollar and US real rates. 20, 2020 2:35 PM ET|| About: Invesco CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust ETF (FXA)by: Income GeneratorIncome Generator Newsletter provider, portfolio strategyAsk TradersSummaryThe Invesco CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (NYSEARCA: FXA) has fallen by more than 15% since January 2018, despite limited economic disruption coming as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.Unemployment changes and GDP losses coming as a result of the pandemic have been relatively muted when compared to many of the world’s largest economies.Rising copper prices have made one of Australia’s most important exports even more valuable and this should have a positive effect on the country’s trade balance figures going forward.A supportive outlook from interest rate differentials could continue to support FXA over the long-term as several major economies are expected to keep rates near historic lows for an extended period of time.Despite relatively limited economic disruption coming as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Invesco CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (NYSEARCA:FXA) has fallen by more than 15% since January 2018.

Moderna Sinks on AstraZeneca Covid-19 Vaccine Progress, JPMorgan… By Investing.com – Jul 20, 2020 40 S&P 500 rises on optimism over COVID-19 vaccine, stimulus By Reuters – Jul 20, 2020 28 Top 5 Things to Know in the Market on Monday, July 20th By Investing.com – Jul 20, 2020 11 Euro, euro zone bond markets hold out hope for recovery fund; stocks… By Reuters – Jul 20, 2020 21 Exclusive: Online Learning Got You Down?

Source: CPB, Orchid Research The largest contraction is in the Euro Area (-11.8% YoY in the first four months of the year, followed by Latin America (-9.6% YoY in January-April), two regions badly hit by the COVID-19 crisis. At Least You Can Bet On It By Investing.com – Jul 20, 2020 2 More News 3 Stocks To Watch In The Coming Week: Tesla, Microsoft, Intel By Haris Anwar/Investing.com – Jul 19, 2020 26 Week Ahead: Stocks To Hit Resistance As Sentiment Flips Between Risk,… By Pinchas Cohen/Investing.com – Jul 19, 2020 20 Opening Bell: U.S. Futures, Stocks Fall; Euro Gains On Stimulus… By Pinchas Cohen/Investing.com – Jul 20, 2020 1 In Search Of Reliable Fixed Income?

However, if the talks break down, the euro which has been in a consistent uptrend this month will sink in disappointment. 20, 2020 1:53 PM ET|| About: Aberd Std Silvr Shs (SIVR)by: Orchid ResearchOrchid Research Commodity analysis, fundamental research, global macro, Trade opportunitiesSummarySIVR has recently exceeded its 2019 high of $19.03 per share, corroborating our view that there is a strong bull run in the silver market.Like gold, silver has benefited from a very favorable macro environment, reflected in the steep decline in the dollar and short-term US real interest rates.Both speculators and ETF investors have recently boosted significantly their net long exposure to silver, highlighting a very strong sentiment.We expect investment demand for silver to remain robust in the months ahead because silver has still plenty of catch-up to play against gold, despite this year’s expected contraction in industrial usage.Our 3-month moving target for SIVR is at $20 per share.

The dollar weakened to an almost six-week low. Source: Author via Tradingview With all of these fundamental factors supporting the outlook for the Australian dollar, it makes sense for investors to start looking for technical triggers that can be used to initiate buy positions in the Invesco CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust. 20, 2020 2:32 PM ET|| About: Aberdn Std Gold Shs (SGOL)by: Orchid ResearchOrchid Research Commodity analysis, fundamental research, global macro, Trade opportunitiesSummarySGOL is at its highest level since October 2012, reflecting a strong bull market in gold.The macro-environment for gold has been very favorable, reflected in the steep decline in the dollar and long-term US real rates.With the Fed on autopilot for a long period of time, we expect macro-dynamics to remain supportive of gold in the months ahead, especially considering the elevated level of uncertainty.At this juncture, we believe that an all-time high in SGOL by the end of the year is a very plausible outcome.

SGOL continues to benefit from a very positive environment for gold, which is reflected in the steep decline in the dollar and the 30-year US TIPS yield. The Canadian dollar, on the other hand, is rising ahead of Tuesday’s retail sales report.

We expect investment demand for silver to remain robust in the months ahead because silver has still plenty of catch-up to play against gold, despite this year’s expected contraction in industrial usage. Let’s take a closer look at the quarter below: (Source: Company Presentation) As we can see from the chart below, the company saw gold production steadily decrease from fiscal Q1 to fiscal Q3, with a slight increase in fiscal Q4 of 3% sequentially (20,700 ounces vs. 20,100 ounces). : Because we expect more speculative buying for COMEX gold in the coming months, we think that the COMEX gold price will move further higher. Even though industrial demand for silver should contract noticeably this year, investment demand should increase sufficiently to more than offset the contraction in the industrial sector. We think that these substantial inflows reflect greater participation of retail investors in the silver market and a still relatively low silver price vs gold.

Weak economies lead to weak industrial demand, which is not supportive of higher copper. Further adding fuel to the rally are production problems in major copper producing areas due to COVID-19, including Peru and Chile. The reason was a surge in gold prices that translated into higher operating and free cash flows. This isn’t helped by the current hedge position of 67,000 ounces at an average gold price of A$2,090/oz [US$1,463/oz], or 20% below current spot prices. Gold has outperformed its complex since the start of the year, rallying by roughly 20%. First, it tanked the copper market by seemingly hurting demand. Source: CFTC, Orchid Research The speculative community boosted significantly its net long position in COMEX silver in the week to July 14, according to the CFTC. However, we argue that the macro environment for gold is sufficiently bullish to keep speculative sentiment toward COMEX gold buoyant. Copper miners are naturally affected by recent events. Source: Bloomberg Silver futures topped $20 for the first time since Sept 2016…

Its current lineup extends from the $199 HERO7 Silver to the $499 GoPro MAX. In addition to gold, he writes articles about inflation, interest rates, and the Federal Reserve. The country is dealing with the worst flooding seen in recent decades, which includes areas where copper is mined. Pan American Silver announced today the suspension of two of its silver mines in Peru due to several workers testing positive for the COVID-19 virus. The S&P GSCI Industrial Metals was also higher this month, in line with the move in silver, so this recent move could be explained by the economic optimism boosting certain metals on the back of promising COVID-19 vaccine trials. Industrial use is much higher for silver, accounting for more than 50% of demand. The slowing of gold ETF inflows over the past week is not a surprise after the massive increase in investment demand from April. Imports of unwrought and other semi-refined copper have increased to a much greater extent than copper ore. Imports of unwrought copper increased by 25% to 2.8M tons in the first six months of 2020, but imports of copper ore are up by only 3% to 10.8M tons.

The coronavirus pandemic has severely disrupted production at copper mines in Chile and Peru. I believe this profit booking is an opportunity to consider fresh exposure to this gold mining stock. As we can see below, a $1,351/oz cost profile moves Red 5 to ranked 59th out of 63 gold producers worldwide from a cost standpoint, or in the bottom 10% of the sector in terms of margins. This disparity reflects the fact that the average price of copper has fallen in 2020 compared to 2019. It is important for market participants to be aware that the silver market is smaller and typically more volatile than the gold market. According to data from the ICSG, the copper deficit reached 414,000 metric tons in 2019, more than twice the amount two years earlier. Source: Bloomberg, Orchid Research : We expect inflows into silver ETFs to continue in the months ahead until the gold:silver ratio adjusts toward a level in line with its historical standards.

Peru is the number two copper producer at roughly 12% of global output. During the same period, gold has returned 4.5% on an annualized basis. The Huaron and Morococha Mines produced 6.3 million oz of silver last year, accounting for 25% of the company’s silver production: With more problems with silver mine closures due to the global pandemic, it will be interesting to see how this will impact the silver market. Imports of unwrought copper have also increased, although not as strongly. This, in itself, is a big factor to remain positive on gold. In addition, as gold prices remain firm, the company can be aggressive on the capital investment front to benefit through higher production. (Source: Company Presentation) Red 5 released its fiscal Q4 and FY2020 results last week, and the company reported quarterly gold production of 20,700 ounces at A$2,259/oz [US$1,581/oz].

Because some momentum-based ETF investors have joined the party of late, gold is vulnerable to some bouts of profit-taking once the gold price takes a pause and momentum-based traders unwind their long positions. But there is one exception and that is copper (CPER)(JJC). 20, 2020 2:32 PM ET|| About: Aberdn Std Gold Shs (SGOL)by: Orchid ResearchOrchid Research Commodity analysis, fundamental research, global macro, Trade opportunitiesSummarySGOL is at its highest level since October 2012, reflecting a strong bull market in gold.The macro-environment for gold has been very favorable, reflected in the steep decline in the dollar and long-term US real rates.With the Fed on autopilot for a long period of time, we expect macro-dynamics to remain supportive of gold in the months ahead, especially considering the elevated level of uncertainty.At this juncture, we believe that an all-time high in SGOL by the end of the year is a very plausible outcome.

COVID-19 seems to be able to move the price of copper in both directions. As of July 17, 2020, the S&P GSCI Silver was up 6.1% for the month, twice as strong as the S&P GSCI Gold’s return. 20, 2020 2:45 PM ET|| About: Newmont Corporation (NEM)by: Disruptive InvestorDisruptive Investor Long/short equity, Deep Value, event-driven, macroSummaryStrong growth in free cash flow will translate into dividend growth in the coming quarters.Low leverage implies ample financial flexibility to ramp-up investments and benefit from higher gold prices.Sustained decline in all-in-sustaining-cost will result in higher EBITDA margin and cash flows. Given the Fed’s autopilot mode and the lingering macro/political/geopolitical uncertainty on the horizon, it is fair to argue that the macro environment for gold will remain extremely favorable. Gold production for FY2020 came in at 92,800 ounces, well below FY2020 guidance of 115,000 ounces, and this contributed to a massive miss on costs as well.

ETF inflows into silver have increased at an accelerating pace since April, highlighting a strongly positive sentiment toward the precious metal. Typical industrial uses for silver include solar panels, automotive components, and medical devices. Like gold, silver tends to be greatly influenced by the fluctuations in the dollar and US real rates. This 9% lower gold production compared to the 102,000 ounces produced in FY2019 was the main culprit for the higher costs this year vs. last year’s more respectable costs of A$1,601/oz [US$1,121/oz]. However, higher gold prices offset this impact. The worry is that China’s economy will slow down, partly as a result of the trade tensions, and that’s not bullish for copper demand going forward. : There is plenty of room for additional spec buying for COMEX silver in the months ahead due to the fairly light spec positioning in the silver futures market. However, the contraction has been more than offset by the massive rise in investment demand for silver, pushing silver prices higher.

Assuming the company manages to achieve guidance this year, this will translate to a 1% increase in gold production but at 7% higher costs and some of the industry’s worst costs. SIVR has exceeded its last year high, boosting our conviction that a bull run in the silver market is well alive. 20, 2020 3:41 PM ET|| About: Halliburton Company (HAL)by: Fun TradingFun Trading The Gold And Oil CornerAs an experienced investor, I will help you stay on task more efficiently.SummaryHalliburton reported a loss per share of $1.91 for 2Q ’20 on $3.196 billion in revenues compared to $5.930 billion in the same quarter last year.The annual dividend payment is down to $0.18 or 1.38% per share.I recommend HAL as a hold. Source: Orchid Research ETF investors bought silver at a strong rate of 325 tonnes in the week to July 17, according to our estimates. According to the 2020 gold reserve survey, “the number of central banks buying gold is expected to increase substantially this year.” This is likely to ensure that gold prices remain firm.

If the Chinese economy continues to normalize, copper demand could return to pre-pandemic levels. Because we expect healthy inflows into gold ETFs in the months ahead, we think that the strong investment demand for gold will act as a positive force for gold prices. Even if gold trades in the range of $1,800 to $2,000 an ounce, EBITDA margins will be robust. Gold markets have now closed higher for six straight weeks and sustained global uncertainties suggest this upward trend is likely to continue for the remainder of 2020. If the last major disruptive event of the past 15 years is any indication, a bullish environment for gold typically opens the door to bullish price action for silver. Copper started to fall when trade tariffs came into effect in the middle of 2018. The Fed tightening policies can strengthen the dollar and translate into downside for gold. While Pan American Silver is shutting down its silver mines in Peru, it’s two gold mines, Shahuindo and La Arena, restarted operations on May 15th and continue to ramp up to full production.

Welcome to Orchid’s Gold Weekly report. His website, Kelsey’s Gold Facts, contains self-authored articles written for the purpose of educating and informing others about gold within an historical context. Over the last three months, the SPDR Gold Trust has been propelled by inflows of nearly $11.8 billion. In such an environment, investors are inclined to increase their allocation to gold in their portfolios. Source: Bloomberg Share By Amrith Ramkumar Close July 20, 2020 3:56 pm ET The price of silver rose for the ninth time in 12 sessions Monday, hitting a nearly four-year high with investors flocking to precious metals during the economic uncertainty caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Not only did it hit copper’s biggest consumer, but it caused a global recession. In light of these relatively new market trends, bullish investors trading the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: GLD) have encountered significant benefits in volatile economic environments that have produced rallies of 25.6% since March 16th, 2020.

But the overall impact on copper miners has been positive with rising prices for their output. 20, 2020 6:42 PM ET|| About: Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd. (TRQ), Includes: RIOby: Vladimir ZernovVladimir Zernov Long/short equitySummaryTurquoise Hill reports Q2 production results and increased full-year gold production guidance.The liquidity situation has improved, and Turquoise Hill has funds for operations and development of underground mine until early 2022.Raising additional financing is inevitable, but the company has the time to choose its options.Traders and investors in Turquoise Hill (TRQ) had plenty of information to digest over the recent month. Source: Bloomberg Commodities were all generally higher on the day with silver dramatically outperforming… However, there is reason to think that the recent rally in copper prices may not be sustainable.

Demand changes in China matter greatly because China accounts for more than half of all copper consumption. However, the average head grades in FY2020 were considerably lower, which contributed to the lower gold production year-over-year, as head grades came in at 3.79 grams per tonne gold in FY2019 and slipped 10% to just 3.30 grams per tonne gold in FY2020. Copper ore Quantity YoY Value YoY 2019 21.990M tons 11.6% CNY233.7B 11.1% 2018 19.716M tons 13.7% CNY212.8B 17.0% Unwrought copper 2019 4.979M tons (6%) CNY223.9B (9.2%) 2018 5.297M tons 12.9% CNY246.8B 16.5% Source: China customs statistics (Unit: 10000 tons) H1 2020 H1 2019 YoY Copper ores and concentrates 1084.0 1052.6 +3.0% Unwrought copper and copper products 284.1 226.9 +25.2% (Unit: 100M CNY) Copper ores and concentrates 1109.8 1116.5 -0.6% Unwrought copper and copper products 1196.9 1031.2 +16.1% The latest customs data out of China suggests that the situation has reversed in 2020.

So why have copper prices done so well lately despite all the apparent headwinds? We discuss gold prices through the lenses of Aberdeen Standard Physical Gold Shares (SGOL). According to Pan American Silver press release as of June 1st, they stated the following in regards to their two silver mines in Peru: Pan American Silver Announces Resumption of Operations Previously Suspended by COVID-19 Restrictions Huaron and Morococha: Pan American is awaiting the regulatory authorizations to restart these underground mines. However, copper has since gone on a major rally. Source: SGOL Source: CFTC, Orchid Research The speculative community cut slightly its net long position in COMEX gold in the week to July 14, according to the CFTC. There is an important reason why silver isn’t perfectly correlated to gold. This means that SIVR holds physical silver bars in HSBC vaults. The large contraction in industrial production in the first four months of the year is likely to be accompanied by a significant contraction in industrial usage for silver.

They also discuss gold, and analyze ongoing progress of the EU recovery deal. Copper is actually up for the year after a major rally. Newmont Corporation currently has 95.7Moz in gold reserves. Later on in 2008, he began researching areas of the gold and silver market that, curiously, the majority of the precious metal analyst community have left unexplored. Gold started trending higher in the second half of 2019 after nearly five years of sideways movement. As a result, we expect investment demand for the yellow metal to continue to increase in the months ahead, pushing gold prices firmly higher from there. Over the last six-month trading period, the SPDR Gold Trust has been the beneficiary of inflows equal to nearly $18.06 billion. 20, 2020 2:22 PM ETby: S&P Dow Jones IndicesS&P Dow Jones Indices Index providerIndexologySummarySilver has soared since mid-March 2020, fueled by renewed industrial demand and investor appetite for alternatives to gold and government bonds.Over the past 20 years, silver’s monthly correlation to gold was 0.75.If the last major disruptive event of the past 15 years is any indication, a bullish environment for gold typically opens the door to bullish price action for silver.By Jim Wiederhold Silver has soared since mid-March 2020, fueled by renewed industrial demand and investor appetite for alternatives to gold and government bonds.

As a reminder, industrial demand for silver accounts for roughly half of the total silver demand. Source: Wikimedia Commons Demand for copper has been outpacing supply for years. Shelton has favored a return to the gold standard although recently seemed to back off such a hard stance. Of course, the novel coronavirus pandemic triggered a bigger rally in gold and I believe that the precious metal will continue to trend higher. So while the amount of imported copper ore increased by 3% YoY, the amount spent on these imports declined by 0.6%. A man found dead in upstate New York may be linked to a killing at the New Jersey home of a federal judge by a gunman posing as a FedEx delivery person.Summer camps in parts of the U.S. are closing as children and counselors test positive for the virus, a troubling sign as states decide whether schools should start in-person instruction as soon as next month.What you ll need to know tomorrowThe U.K. just ordered 90 million vaccine doses.Wall Street firms are looking at moving jobs out of New York City.Chicago may be headed for some new Covid-19 restrictions.Citi says it s only a matter of time before gold hits a record.Saudi Arabia s Fannie Mae just bought $800 million in mortgages.Kim Jong Un s unfinished hospital shows sanctions may be biting.WeWork s Adam Neumann to sell guitar house for $27.5 million.

It’s conceivable that copper production output could decline substantially in the top three copper-producing countries, which combined are responsible for over half of the global supply. S&P DJI calculates many variations of indices tracking the silver market, including inverse and leveraged indices such as the S&P GSCI Silver 2X Leveraged, which was up 12.1% for the month as of July 17, 2020, and back in positive territory YTD.

Unfortunately, this led to Red 5 being one of the highest-cost producers in the sector in FY2020, with the jump in costs year-over-year offsetting much of the gold (GLD) price gains. Later on in 2008, he began researching areas of the gold and silver market that, … more Independent researcher Steve St. Angelo (SRSrocco) started to invest in precious metals in 2002. Source: Orchid Research ETF investors added 8 tonnes of gold to their holdings in the week to July 17, according to our estimates. However, even if gold declines to $1,600 to $1,700 an ounce, mining stocks will correct. Gold ETF holdings have increased by 736 tonnes or 31% in the year to date. Much of the world economy remains in a recession, which is no good for an industrial metal like copper.

China accounts for nearly 20% of industrial silver demand. Although gradual, there has been a steady decline in the industrial use of silver over the past 10 years. This is an indication of ultra-expansionary policies that will support upside for gold. Gold and silver were sailing along, with silver, in particular, taking hold of the 20 handle and hanging on to it with a firm grip. For instance, imports of raw copper ore increased by double digits in both 2018 and 2019. In the last decade, gold has been among the underperforming asset classes. (Unit: 1000 metric tons copper) 2017 2018 2019 2020 (Jan-Mar) World refined production 23,538 24,098 24,041 5,822 World refined usage 23,710 24,488 24,455 5,693 Refined balance (171) (391) (414) 130 Source: ICSG The ICSG points to changes in China as the reason why the market has flipped. As expansionary policies continue, gold will remain in favor. Instead, I would much rather own names like Saracen Minerals, Ramelius Resources, and Silver Lake on dips.

Like gold, silver has benefited from a very favorable macro environment, reflected in the steep decline in the dollar and short-term US real interest rates. (Source: Company Presentation) Unfortunately, FY2021 guidance isn’t expected to be any better than FY2020, with Red 5 guiding for 94,000 ounces of gold production at a cost outlook mid-point of A$1,930/oz [US$1,351/oz]. Chile is the number one producer of copper with a mine output of 5.8M metric tons, which equals roughly a third of global output. Silver ETF holdings have jumped by 7,500 tonnes or 35% in the year to date, representing a significant amount of silver (more than half of annual supply). I want to first talk about dividends as it’s closely linked with gold prices. That said, there was a silver lining: after the company reported the lowest revenue in the 21st century last quarter at $17.6BN, in Q2 IBM managed a modest sequential rebound, with revenue rising to 18.1$BN, even as Wall Street was expecting another 20 year low in the top-line.

This confirms our view that a positive swing in sentiment has emerged in favor of COMEX silver since May, which is the result of a very friendly positive environment. A bullish thesis on gold implies an upside for fundamentally strong companies like Newmont Corporation. It may not have looked like it earlier in the year, but there is a chance that the copper market could end 2020 with a supply deficit. Investment demand is expected to continue to increase in the near term as a result of the very friendly macro environment for gold and silver, which is reflected in the decline in the dollar and US real rates. Source: Trading View, Orchid Research For investors seeking exposure to the fluctuations of gold prices, Aberdeen Standard Physical Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:SGOL) is, in our view, a great long-term investment vehicle, with a small expense ratio of 0.17%. GoPro covers a wide range of price points, starting at the $199 HERO7 Silver to the high-end $499 GoPro MAX.

SIVR has recently exceeded its 2019 high of $19.03 per share, corroborating our view that there is a strong bull run in the silver market. Therefore, a big decline in gold can be ruled out. Considering these factors, I am bullish on gold and I believe that Newmont Corporation is among the best names in the mining industry. From its low in mid-March, the S&P GSCI Silver was up 65% as of July 17, 2020. Copper has been in demand for years. That’s how a gold standard works. 20, 2020 2:15 PM ET|| Includes: COPX, CPER, FCX, JJC, SCCO, TRQby: MarketGyrationsMarketGyrations Long/short equity, value, contrarian, GrowthSummaryThe supply of copper has swung into a surplus in 2020 after several years of supply deficits.Copper prices have rallied after years of falling prices, which started when trade tensions erupted between China and the U.S.COVID-19 initially pushed down copper prices, only to bring them back up to where they were before.The negative impact of COVID-19 on copper is likely to outweigh and outlast the positive impact in the long run.This year has been a rollercoaster for commodities.

Source: Bloomberg, FRED, Orchid Research Because the Fed is expected to remain on autopilot for a long period of time, we expect this friendly macro environment for gold to prevail, making us bullish on SGOL for longer. Both gold and silver have broken out. We expect silver prices to continue to play catch-up against gold prices in the months ahead, which should, therefore, normalize the gold-silver ratio to a more normal level judging by historical standards. As gold trends higher or remains firm at current levels, I expect dividend growth in the coming quarters. Today, the silver price has broken above its $19.75 level and is now trading 30 cents higher in the $20 range. China is both a major producer and importer of copper. The perception is that copper may soon be in short supply as a result. These weak results led to the company missing guidance by over 15% in FY2020, with annual gold production coming in at 92,800 ounces vs. expectations of 115,000 ounces.

This can occur before or after a large move in gold, so it does not always occur with a lag. SGOL continues to benefit from a very positive environment for gold, which is reflected in the steep decline in the dollar and the 30-year US TIPS yield. Both speculators and ETF investors have recently boosted significantly their net long exposure to silver, highlighting a very strong sentiment. This positive for the COMEX silver spot price thus SIVR. There was a surplus of 130,000 metric tons of refined copper in the first three months of 2020. Front-month silver futures advanced 2.2% to $20.124 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, recording their highest close since August 2016. Global copper demand is typically considered to be a leading indicator for economic growth around the world, so we could see rising demand for Australian copper exports as the global economic recovery continues.

The gold-silver ratio has declined well since April, yet it remains elevated judging by historical standards. The Fund physically holds gold bars in vaults based in London (UK) and Zurich (Switzerland) custodied by JPMorgan. The less precious metal, silver, has lagged gold’s recent multi-year increase. Notice the outsized move of silver from September 2008 to April 2011. The physically-backed methodology prevents investors from getting punished by the contango structure of the Comex silver forward curve (forward>spot), contrary to a futures contract-based methodology. The backdrop for copper has deteriorated quite significantly in 2020. The more volatile precious metal has historically overshot moves in gold prices (see Exhibit 1). Industrial production usually drops during recessions, which in turn reduces copper usage. After a big increase in 2016 and 2017, copper prices peaked in early 2018 and then began to decline. Copper hit another low when parts of the U.S. went into lockdown in March due to COVID-19.

The bullish copper supply and demand fundamentals of previous years have become less so in 2020. I would not be surprised if gold outperforms most assets in the coming years. 20, 2020 5:45 PM ET|| About: Red 5 Limited (RFVVF)by: Taylor DartTaylor Dart Long/short equity, momentum, gold & precious metalsTaylor DartSummaryRed 5 reported its fiscal Q4 and FY2020 results last week with both annual gold production and costs missing by a wide margin.FY2021 should be another tough year with gold production expected to be below 100,000 ounces at higher costs as the Red 5 scales down KOTH Underground to prepare for construction.While Red 5 has the potential to double its production by FY2022, we are likely to see significant dilution or debt in FY2021 to fully fund the current funding gap.I continue to see the stock as a Hold, but I believe there are more attractive opportunities elsewhere as peers bolstering their balance sheets should outperform Red 5 while we await KOTH’s expected first gold pour in FY2022.We’ve finally begun the Q2 earnings season for the Gold Miners Index (GDX), and at the same time, we’re winding down what was an exceptional FY2020 for the Australian miners who are reporting their fiscal Q4 results.

I believe that the company is one of the best bets to benefit from rising gold prices (besides exposure to physical gold). Included are Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Southern Copper (SCCO) and Turquoise Hill Resources (TRQ). Looking to commodities to diversify an investment portfolio could provide a silver lining in the second half of 2020. The two silver mines in Peru accounted for 6.3 million ounces of silver output for Pan American Silver in 2019. Copper prices fell again in May 2019 when the trade war intensified with more tariffs. This should act as a positive force for the COMEX silver spot price and thus SIVR. Importantly, SGOL, which was launched in September 2009, tracks closely its benchmark – the London PM fix for gold, as the chart below shows.

SGOL is at its highest level since October 2012, reflecting a strong bull market in gold. So while the recent rally in copper prices may continue for a while longer, the prudent move with regard to copper stocks like COPX is to sell into the rally. (Source: Author’s Chart) The one silver lining here is that the Red 5 story should improve in 18 months as the company expects to transition from a one plant miner with two mines to a miner with an increased production profile and two stand-alone operations. Because the dollar depreciates and short-term US real rates move lower, speculators are inclined to assert more upside exposure to COMEX silver. Nevertheless, we expect ETF inflows to remain healthy in the months ahead due to the positive macro environment for gold, including elevated macro uncertainty, massive dovishness from the Fed, significant US fiscal stimulus, and the forthcoming US presidential elections. Welcome to Orchid’s Silver weekly report, in which we wish to deliver our regular thoughts on the silver market through the Aberdeen Standard Physical Silver Shares ETF (SIVR).

Copper dropped once more when China reported the outbreak of a novel coronavirus. Copper rallied from $2.00 per pound to almost $3.00 per pound, Mongolia decided to fund the construction of a state-owned power plant, the feasibility study for the mine did not bring bad news while production guidance was increased. Another trigger for strong gold prices is the trend in central bank gold purchase. But despite supply deficits, copper prices have gotten progressively weaker. 20, 2020 2:35 PM ET|| About: Invesco CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust ETF (FXA)by: Income GeneratorIncome Generator Newsletter provider, portfolio strategyAsk TradersSummaryThe Invesco CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (NYSEARCA: FXA) has fallen by more than 15% since January 2018, despite limited economic disruption coming as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.Unemployment changes and GDP losses coming as a result of the pandemic have been relatively muted when compared to many of the world’s largest economies.Rising copper prices have made one of Australia’s most important exports even more valuable and this should have a positive effect on the country’s trade balance figures going forward.A supportive outlook from interest rate differentials could continue to support FXA over the long-term as several major economies are expected to keep rates near historic lows for an extended period of time.Despite relatively limited economic disruption coming as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Invesco CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (NYSEARCA:FXA) has fallen by more than 15% since January 2018.

Even though industrial demand for silver should contract noticeably this year, investment demand should increase sufficiently to more than offset the contraction. While many producers on the Australian market had blowout years like Saracen Minerals (OTCPK:SCEXF), Ramelius Resources (OTCPK:RMLRF), and Silver Lake (OTCPK:SVLKF), Red 5 (OTC:RFVVF) missed its guidance by a country mile, and a capital raise near 9-month lows in fiscal Q3 didn’t help matters.

Trade disputes involving China, the main consumer of copper, have taken a toll on prices. This has benefited the Global X Copper Miner ETF (COPX), an ETF consisting of 27 mining companies. Australia’s copper exports have reached $3.2 billion on an annualized basis, and a recent rebound in copper prices should have a strongly positive influence on the country’s trade balance figures for the rest of 2020. Yet copper prices have rebounded nonetheless and are actually in positive territory for the year. Therefore, Red 5 was forced to operate the mill at 50% while waiting for the eccentric unit, shaving 28,000 tonnes or 3,200 gold ounces off of fiscal Q4 quarterly output. Market participants diversified some of their gold holdings to silver in previous scenarios, and such flows tended to cause outsized moves in the much smaller silver market.

Copper usage declined by 4% in China as a result of temporary shutdowns due to COVID-19. 20, 2020 1:53 PM ET|| About: Aberd Std Silvr Shs (SIVR)by: Orchid ResearchOrchid Research Commodity analysis, fundamental research, global macro, Trade opportunitiesSummarySIVR has recently exceeded its 2019 high of $19.03 per share, corroborating our view that there is a strong bull run in the silver market.Like gold, silver has benefited from a very favorable macro environment, reflected in the steep decline in the dollar and short-term US real interest rates.Both speculators and ETF investors have recently boosted significantly their net long exposure to silver, highlighting a very strong sentiment.We expect investment demand for silver to remain robust in the months ahead because silver has still plenty of catch-up to play against gold, despite this year’s expected contraction in industrial usage.Our 3-month moving target for SIVR is at $20 per share.

As it stands, the mine is expected to produce over 140,000 ounces of gold annually at costs of A$1,167/oz [US$817/oz]. Investment demand for silver has risen over the past three years from a 10-year low, but it still only accounts for about half of the industrial demand. Over the past 20 years, silver’s monthly correlation to gold was 0.75 – quite high, but not perfect.

The July Brent crude swap ended the day up 10 cents to $43.21/bbl. Before 2018, gasoline and diesel prices were readjusted periodically by Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) to reduce price volatility. In April, WTI prices dove below the zero mark for the first time in history due to oversupplied conditions triggered by virus-related lockdowns. 20, 2020 3:53 PM ET|| Includes: BNO, DBO, OILK, OILX, OLEM, SCO, UCO, USL, USOby: HFIRHFIR HFI ResearchThe #1 oil and natural gas research service on Seeking Alpha.SummaryOil market rebalancing is underway with global oil inventories including oil-on-water falling at a clip of -4 mb/d for the first two weeks of July.Excess oil-in-transit is gone, but floating storage remains ~80 million bbls higher than normal.All of the excess in floating storage is concentrated in China because the Chinese took full advantage of lower oil prices in March and April.Depending on the demand recovery in China, the excess crude buying we saw could pose a potential headwind down the road.Saudis are fully aware of this and have increased OSP to choke off flows to the east.

Cal ’21 Brent/WTI spread swap was at $3.22/bbl. The lack of shale profitability, mainly due to West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices sub-$40 per barrel won’t be enough for highly indebted shale companies to survive. Fuel oil: GC HSFO FP slides, Brent barges crack widens The July swap for Gulf Coast high sulfur fuel oil ease 20 cents to $36.70/barrel at 4p Houston. US clean: USGC CBOB diff jumps July paper for US Gulf Coast CBOB gasoline moved up 75 points to the August ULSD futures contract minus 11.75 cents/gallon even as stronger supply was heard. NYMEX WTI-Houston August futures went up 26 cents at $41.24/bbl as of 130p Houston. Refining capacity did not increase anywhere close to this, so the excess crude is going into onshore storage. Now given that the Chinese took advantage of low oil prices, this implies that if demand does not recover soon for the Chinese, then future crude buying would be reduced resulting in a slower rebalancing.

Slumping crude production is more bad news for the stock market… The United States and India signed a preliminary agreement on Friday on cooperating on emergency crude oil reserves, including the possibility of India storing oil in the US emergency stockpile, officials said. The July WTI-Houston/Brent swap ticked up a cent to minus $1.55/bbl. Genscape reported that the Colorado City-to-Houston 440,000 b/d Bridgetex crude pipeline shut early Monday morning. Regional Crude: Increasing crude stockpiles weaken US crude grades Genscape reported an increase in crude stockpiles in Cushing by 816,443 bbls to 52,190,969 bbls, causing the Mars August paper to weaken 10 cts to WTI August swap plus 75 cts/bbl. WTI Midland August paper also went down by 5 cts to WTI August swap plus 5 cts/bbl. Demand for gasoline and ethanol has gotten a little stronger and should continue to improve over time. The Gulf Coast July gross refinery margin (PD3CSCRKSPOT) was at plus $3.68/bbl, up 60 cents, according to Refinitiv Commodities Analytics, which is a measure of crude run by refineries 2-3 weeks ago with products output now.

At 130p Houston, the August WTI swap was marked at $40.98/bbl. But even with these gains, gasoline prices are still 23.4% lower than they were during the same period last year. Crude output will continue to wane this year and likely into next. The July WTI/Oman spread swap was assessed at minus $2.85/bbl. But given that demand is still recovering in China, most of this overbought crude is being stored offshore via floating storage. At 130p Houston Monday, the August WTI future settled at $40.81/bbl, up 22 cents. Matt Gallagher, CEO of Parsley Energy, a top 20 producer in Texas, spoke recently with the Financial Times and said crude output of 12 or 13 million barrels per day is over: “I don’t think I’ll see 13m [barrels a day] again in my lifetime. This will help smooth the rebalancing in Asia by forcing refineries there to absorb the excess crude before buying more expensive crude.

The July Brent/WTI spread swap narrowed 5 cents to $2.38/bbl. For OPEC, the Saudis, in particular, are well aware that the Chinese took full advantage of low oil prices. The NYMEX crude Aug/Sep futures increased 5 cents to minus 11 cts/bbl. Typically clients will see corporate high-yield credit bought under times of extreme stress like in early 2009 and then again in the first quarter of 2016, when crude oil fell to $28 per barrel, and then sold within 6 – 9 months. The August Houston/Cushing WTI futures spread was at plus 69 cts/bbl. The GC HSFO July swap percentage to Brent crude July swap was estimated to be 84.9%. Oil climbed above $40 a barrel. Between Tuesday and Friday, Cushing crude inventories grew by more than 23,000 barrels, according to Genscape. Belvieu natural gasoline July forward swaps slid 1.25 cents to 62.75 cents/gal, but Conway natural gasoline July forward swaps gained 2.5 cents to 84.125 cents/gal.

Mr Trump’s decision to hold a mass rally inside a 19,000-seat arena inside Tulsa, Oklahoma, has drawn criticism at a time when cases of the coronavirus are spiking in Oklahoma, and Tulsa specifically. Under Mr Berman’s leadership, the office indicted Mr Trump’s former personal attorney Michael Cohen on campaign finance violations, as well as associates to the president’s current lawyer, Rudy Giuliani. We’ve held many Fed Listens events over the past 16 months, and it’s important to note that these conversations aren’t just a nice way to talk to people from around the country, although they are that. China is considering retaliating against the Chinese operations of two major European telecommunication-equipment manufacturers, Nokia Corp. and Ericsson AB, should European Union members follow the lead of the US and UK in barring China’s Huawei Technologies Co. from 5G networks, a major online news agency reported. Fed Listens Events As a second-wave of Covid-19 infections sweeps through the United States, many have praised New Zealand for its handling of the pandemic which has already allowed for the country to reopen its economy.

less 20, 2020 2:58 PM ETby: WWS Swiss Financial Consulting SAWWS Swiss Financial Consulting SA Debt, long-term horizon, contrarian, investment advisorWWS SFC SASummaryThe US government is spending too much.The US dollar is not irreplaceable.Various scenarios.This article speculates on what could happen should the US dollar depreciate considerably. Meanwhile, the pandemic rages on, especially in the U.S., where President Donald Trump has shown little interest in or capacity for combating the disease. Mr. Waller, the research director at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, was also nominated by Mr. Trump to the seven-seat Fed board. You add depth and definition to the flood of data that flows through the Fed each day. While Simons generously supported a left-leaning agenda, Mercer’s support of Breitbart News, Steve Bannon, and Cambridge Analytica proved far more powerful on the conservative side, arguably providing Donald Trump’s margin of victory in the 2016 election.

Mnuchin, meanwhile, “confirmed Republicans plan to reduce the size of a $600-per-week enhanced unemployment benefit approved in March, which will begin running out for millions of Americans later this week,” according to the Post, which notes that Republicans have argued that . The United States and India signed a preliminary agreement on Friday on cooperating on emergency crude oil reserves, including the possibility of India storing oil in the US emergency stockpile, officials said. Questions were initially raised over how Mr Farage had gained entry to the US despite the country’s strict ban on individuals travelling from the UK under the presidential proclamation signed in March to curb the spread of Covid-19. Therese Raphael It Was Never Really Trump s Economy Voters understandably give Trump big Fs for his handling of the coronavirus and other things, but about half the country still sees him as a decent steward of the economy.

Putting this amount of cash in context it represents about $5,660 for every man, woman and child in the US (which many would say should be sent out directly to these people instead of provided to US corporations so they can repurchase stock), it is greater than the market cap of Apple even with the current insane meltup in the Nasdaq, and is greater than the GDP of the 10th largest nation in the world, Canada.. … which means that if Trump wanted to, he could buy all of Canada and not even have to LBO it, but instead pay cold, hard cash for it. Mr Trump has frequently compared to Chicago to Afghanistan, and has been incorrect each time he has made the comparison. less 20, 2020 5:05 PM ET|| About: Fanhua Inc. (FANH), Includes: COE, JRJC, LX, VIPSby: Debra FiakasDebra Fiakas Small-cap, long/short equity, special situationsCrystal Equity ResearchSummaryWealth effects of bull market touted by Beijing political leadership, whipping up trading volume and prices of China stocks.Price comparisons of U.S. stock market indices and U.S. listed stocks suggest Beijing’s bullish talk spilled into U.S. stock market.Recent return performance of selected companies in China consumer services sector reveals investor respect for all things ‘online’.Fundamental performance still the best play for investors even when policymakers attempt to lay down trump card.Lately, China’s President Xi Jinping is sounding more like a fervent capitalist than the leader of the largest communist country in the world.

These new contracts will continue to build the company’s relationship with the US Department of Defense, and I would expect further material contracts to be secured going forward. Shares of this tiny pharmaceutical firm soared as much as 552% after the company said its experimental drug cut the risk of developing the worst symptoms of Covid-19.Voters in the crucial battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and North Carolina will begin casting ballots in September, giving President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden just weeks to make their cases to voters.U.S.

The US invasion of Afghanistan began in 2001. With the Fed backstopping the economy, I believe we have a fundamental reason to rely on the above statistics: this time likely isn’t going to be different and the odds continue to favor downside in the VIX. Sharing the full story, not just the headlines Download now Mr Farage, who left his regular LBC show earlier this month, last appeared at a rally with Mr Trump in 2016, when the then-Republican nominee was campaigning for the US presidency against Hillary Clinton. After weeks of refusing to wear a face covering in public, Donald Trump has posted to Twitter a black-and-white photo of himself wearing a mask and encouraged Americans to do the same as the nation’s coronavirus death toll tops more than 140,000. Gardner responded by suggesting that Trump and other McCloskey defenders are attacking her to distract from “their failed approach to the COVID-19 pandemic” along with other issues, per Politico.

Still, the next package is in doubt, partly because Trump and Republicans have gotten increasingly picky, notes Michael R. Strain. News > World > Americas > US politics Close Related Video: Donald Trump suggests he could reject 2020 election results ‘Even if Trump knew that his scheme lacked legal authority, he could get away with it for the length of his presidency,’ attorney John Yoo said. By Monday the US had 3.77 million confirmed cases of Covid-19, and more than 140,000 officially recorded deaths. Equities outside the US in developed markets topped last week’s widespread gains for the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange-traded funds. Jonathan Djanogly, the Conservative MP who led the rebellion, had argued that the US congress approves similar deals. Here’s what you need to know to end your day.Mnuchin wants stimulus to get kids back to school and boost jobs.IBM benefits from cloud demand, revenue beats estimates.The summer Friday isn’t dead.

Mr Trump said in a Fox News interview Sunday that he intended to use the interpretation of the law to attempt to force his decisions on healthcare and immigration, as well as “other plans” through. The attorney’s ideas hang on a Supreme Court ruling last month that blocked Mr Trump from ending the Barack Obama-era DACA immigration program. 20, 2020 2:32 PM ET|| About: Aberdn Std Gold Shs (SGOL)by: Orchid ResearchOrchid Research Commodity analysis, fundamental research, global macro, Trade opportunitiesSummarySGOL is at its highest level since October 2012, reflecting a strong bull market in gold.The macro-environment for gold has been very favorable, reflected in the steep decline in the dollar and long-term US real rates.With the Fed on autopilot for a long period of time, we expect macro-dynamics to remain supportive of gold in the months ahead, especially considering the elevated level of uncertainty.At this juncture, we believe that an all-time high in SGOL by the end of the year is a very plausible outcome.

What we’re reading The border patrol was responsible for an arrest in Portland (The Nation) Trump plans to expand federal invasion of U.S. cities (Mother Jones) The depression-era book that wanted to cancel the rent (The New Yorker) The pandemic has pushed aside city planning rules. That will be the focus of the next round of virus relief, according to Steven Mnuchin. “This morning at 11.30am Tulsa Police were requested by Trump campaign staff to remove an individual from the secure area of the rally,” police said in a statement. Mr Yoo’s upcoming book argues Mr Trump has returned the power to the presidency that the founding fathers intended it to have. Rarely do we hear President Trump these days touting shale jobs and production output, mostly because the industry has entered a bust cycle. As an example of his opposition to renaming bases, Mr Trump has pointed to the rich history Fort Bragg in North Carolina, whose namesake, Braxton Bragg, was a Confederate general.

Given the Fed’s autopilot mode and the lingering macro/political/geopolitical uncertainty on the horizon, it is fair to argue that the macro environment for gold will remain extremely favorable. As of Monday afternoon, the US has 3.83 million confirmed cases of coronavirus, and 143,000 officially recorded deaths. The New York Fed’s Manufacturing reading for July exceeded estimates, rising to 17.2 while the neighboring Philly Fed showed a slight decline from 27.5 24.1. The US weather is considered good for growing Soybeans at this time but forecasts call for hot and dry weather in the next few days. Fed Listens: How is COVID-19 Affecting Your Community? There are plenty of critiques; the most pointed ones blame former Fed chief Alan Greenspan for keeping interest rates too low, too long. Because you have declared that you have no intention of resigning, I have asked the president to remove you as of today, and he has done so.” When asked about the firing just hours later, however, Mr Trump said he was “not involved” and that it was up to the attorney general.

Included in these releases will be more housing data in the form of new and existing home sales and FHFA home prices, claims, the Kansas City Fed’s activity index, and preliminary Markit PMIs. According to Axios, two Trump White House officials spoke with reporters anonymously and said that while the president is interested in Mr Yoo’s ideas, the White House isn’t going to rely solely on issuing executive orders. Liquidity is the “silent killer” in the corporate bond markets, but with the Fed’s 7 – 8 liquidity programs spread across corporate and municipal bond asset classes starting in early April, 2’0, the Fed and Jay Powell have stated they want to keep the corporate bond markets open for business so that corporations can continue to access the capital markets for refinancing, raising new funds, and rolling over debt.

The Supreme Court’s ruling against DACA was not that the program could not be disassembled, but that Mr Trump’s attempt to dismantle the program did not follow proper procedure. Much of the company’s revenues and contracts come from the US Department of Defense, with whom the company maintains a strong relationship and long-term beneficial contracts. As a reminder, having initially declared himself a supporter of President Donald Trump and teasing a future presidential run, West announced his White House campaign on the Fourth of July. “We’re going to make sure that we don’t pay people more money to stay at home than go to work, we want to make sure that people who can go to work safely can do so,” said Mnuchin. Since the 16 March, the US Customs and Border Protection agency has suspended access for “most individuals, other than United States citizens and lawful permanent residents, who have been physically present within the United Kingdom, excluding overseas territories outside of Europe, or the Republic of Ireland within 14 days of travel to the United States”.

China has become a much more active buyer of Soybeans here in the US and has promised to ramp up purchases in order to comply with commitments it made under the Phase One trade deal. Fed Listens Events May 21, 2020 Chair Jerome H. Powell At “A Fed Listens Event: How Is COVID-19 Affecting Your Community?,” sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D.C. (via webcast) Watch Live Good afternoon. The Fed tightening policies can strengthen the dollar and translate into downside for gold. Mr Trump, seated in the Oval Office and speaking with reporters, claimed that the violence in Chicago this summer has been “worse than Afghanistan, by far.” Sadly, for the US, many states are still embroiled in the first surge of the virus. Complicating matters further is that those residents on H1-B visas currently in the US face uncertainty as to whether they would be allowed to return if they leave, for example for family reasons.

In an interview with Fox News’ Chris Wallace on Sunday, president Donald Trump, who has now been seen in public wearing a mask, said that he still believed that people should be free not to wear masks and that “masks cause problems, too”. As Noah points out, these were Trump s least-constructive ideas. On February 14, 2017, the New York Times published an article entitled, “Trump Campaign Aides Had Repeated Contact With Russian Intelligence.” Peter Strzok, who headed the Trump investigation (aka Operation Crossfire Hurricane), read the article and made notes establishing that the FBI had no basis for investigating Trump. Mr Trump said, referencing the American civil rights activist, Baptist minister, and former Democratic presidential candidate. This number is thought to have fallen during the Trump administration. 20, 2020 8:51 PM ET|| About: OPKO Health, Inc. (OPK), Includes: DGX, LH, RADby: Doubling DollarsDoubling Dollars Long only, growth at reasonable price, value, dividend investingDoubling DollarsSummaryOver 700,000 COVID-19 tests are being performed daily across the US.OPKO Health’s wholly owned subsidiary, BioReference Labs is the nation’s third-largest diagnostics laboratory.Fastest test result turnaround in the industry has landed the company impressive state, local, and sports contracts.Back in 2015, OPKO Health (OPK) acquired medical diagnostic testing company BioReference Laboratories (BRL) in a $1.5 billion all-share offer.

We are starting to see this in the US and other OECD countries. Steven Mnuchin called for a stimulus package centered on getting children back to school and boosting jobs. Six members of the advance team tested positive out of hundreds of tests performed, and quarantine procedures were immediately implemented, said Tim Murtaugh, communications director for the Trump campaign. Authored by Andrea Widburg via AmericanThinker.com, On March 20, 2017, then-FBI Director James Comey told Congress that the FBI was formally investigating whether there were contacts between the Trump campaign and the Kremlin.

Attorney general William Barr escalated a tense standoff between the Justice Department and one of the most powerful investigative offices in the nation on Saturday, claiming that Donald Trump had ordered the firing of a federal prosecutor who was investigating the president’s allies, only for Mr Trump to later deny he was involved. Kanye added the US and other wealthy countries should pay to implement the same scheme worldwide. I must mention that the Fed will tighten policies in baby steps. Kelsey is the author of two books: INFLATION, WHAT IT IS, WHAT IT ISN’T, AND WHO’S RESPONSIBLE FOR IT and ALL HAIL THE FED! The government has shut down twice in three years under Donald Trump over differences on immigration and border security. Sharing the full story, not just the headlines Download now Mr Trump praised the work of federal troops he sent to Portland and claimed that more would be on the way, potentially to other Democrat-run cities like Chicago.

,” Trump said of the payroll tax relief, following a Monday meeting in the Oval Office which included Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. In regards to the US, the department’s advice adds: “The USA has put measures in place to limit the spread of coronavirus (Covid-19). Mr Obama instituted DACA using an executive order, and Mr Yoo believes the same laws protecting DACA could protect executive orders issued by Mr Trump for at least two years into his successor’s term, should he lose the 2020 US election. May 21, 2020 Governor Lael Brainard At “A Fed Listens Event: How Is COVID-19 Affecting Your Community?,” sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D.C., (via webcast) Watch Live This will be the 15th Fed Listens event the Federal Reserve has conducted over 16 months.

The highlights of the event included #Ye stating that he wishes to “save the country” – which is something most voters can get behind; that “shooting guns is fun” and without that right the US could be “enslaved” by China or other countries – so clearly pro-Second Amendment; a move away from industrialisation back to agriculture as the industrial revolution is over – which seems timely as people flee big cities; that marijuana should not just be legal, but free; a precautionary note that he isn’t prepared to go against Big Pharma because “they would kill” him – so cynics might say he has a better grasp of US realpolitik than his critics claim; and the proposal that US new-borns should be given USD1m as, after all, “The money’s not even real, and didn’t we just stop all the jobs for six months?”. Mr Barr claimed the US attorney’s statement “wrongly implies” that his “continued tenure in the office is necessary to ensure that cases now pending in the Southern District of New York are handled appropriately” but that “this is obviously false”.

News > World > Americas Close Trump campaign says staffers will not attend rally Six members of an advance team who were organising Donald Trump’s rally in Tulsa this weekend have tested positive for Covid-19. The Treasury secretary met with President Trump, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy to hammer out the Republican plan amid firm opposition from Democrats.There’s also an internal division. With such a supportive Fed, I have a very hard time seeing broad-based selling once again, at least for the next few months. The Treasury cash balance has been surging ever since a flood of T-Bill issuance was unleashed at the start of Q2 to prefund the trillions in fiscal stimulus outlays that are needed to keep the US economy for collapsing, with the total amount of cash on (Steven Mnuchin’s) hand rising by a record $1.4 trillion, since April 1.

There has been a fair amount of talk about activist judges, Trump judges, and Obama judges. That’s partly because of the massive distortions caused by the Fed. The development added another layer of confusion to the fate of US attorney Geoffrey Berman, who has been spearheading investigations into Mr Trump’s inner circle. Donald Trump said the violence in Chicago is “worse than Afghanistan” in a recent interview and suggested he may send federal officers into additional cities. Once considered a longshot, Judy Shelton, Trump’s Hot-Button Nominee, may soon be on the Fed. Sharyl Attkisson quoted the notes: “Phone records and intercepted calls show that members of Donald J. Trump’s presidential campaign and other Trump associates had repeated contacts with senior Russian intelligence officials in the year before the election, according to four current and former American officials.” “This statement is misleading and inaccurate as written. But poor pandemic management is also poor economic management, and Trump s main policies tax cuts for the rich and trade wars were either neutral for growth or actively hurt it, writes Noah Smith.

At the request of Donald Trump’s campaign, police arrested an Oklahoma demonstrator on live television moments after she was seen praying outside the president’s rally, though she said she had a ticket to attend. The bills before each chamber have huge implications on whether Americans receive a second round of stimulus checks by the end of the summer; whether states, local governments, small businesses, and health systems get the money and coverage they need to continue dealing with the coronavirus crisis; and whether the US military and government can continue to function without funding obstacles. The answer, based upon newly released documents from the Senate Judiciary Committee, is that To go back a step, we know from Inspector General Michael Horowitz’s December 2019 report that the FBI relied upon the Steele Dossier both to spy on Carter Page and to investigate the Trump campaign.

The issue of renaming US military bases that honour Confederate officers has threatened to topple the ever-fragile NDAA agreements, with Mr Trump suggesting he could veto any legislation that includes such provisions. The same has been true especially in Republican-controlled states in the US in response to the coronavirus. The number of these zombies is surging because they feed off of the Fed’s falsification of credit markets. John Yoo told Axios that he was consulting Mr Trump on a US Supreme Court ruling on immigration that could allow Mr Trump to issue executive orders to skirt federal law. The catalyst: a deadly virus and the Fed’s unprecedented measures to prop up the economy. The Navy is expected to move fast on implementation as virus cases surge, which is a move the service hopes it can prevent another mishap like what happened several months back when10% of the USS Theodore Roosevelt’s 4,865-person crew tested positive for the virus.

Recent reports have said the US attorney’s office was leading an investigation into Mr Giuliani over potential campaign finance violations. Brazil prices have been creeping higher for the rest of the world as it starts to run out of Soybeans to export, so China and the rest of the world will look to the US and Argentina for additional supplies. The 22 June proclamation by president Donald Trump stopped the issuance of work visas and meant that many foreign doctors are unable to travel to the US to begin their residencies. “This might help explain why Trump doesn’t like to wear a mask in public,” Mr Hume wrote. Source: Bloomberg, FRED, Orchid Research Because the Fed is expected to remain on autopilot for a long period of time, we expect this friendly macro environment for gold to prevail, making us bullish on SGOL for longer. “,” Trump added of the 7.65% tax paid by employers and employees which funds Social Security and Medicare.

20, 2020 2:15 PM ET|| Includes: COPX, CPER, FCX, JJC, SCCO, TRQby: MarketGyrationsMarketGyrations Long/short equity, value, contrarian, GrowthSummaryThe supply of copper has swung into a surplus in 2020 after several years of supply deficits.Copper prices have rallied after years of falling prices, which started when trade tensions erupted between China and the U.S.COVID-19 initially pushed down copper prices, only to bring them back up to where they were before.The negative impact of COVID-19 on copper is likely to outweigh and outlast the positive impact in the long run.This year has been a rollercoaster for commodities. The president claimed on Saturday he had nothing to do with Mr Berman’s firing, and that it was up to his attorney general whether the US attorney would remain in his post. Cass Sunstein Bail Out the Economy, and Your Portfolio To Trump s credit, he has been willing to sign off on economic stimulus bills throughout the pandemic, which have helped keep the economy from disappearing completely into the Mariana Trench.

Meanwhile, Trump is reportedly trying to take money for the CDC and for coronavirus testing and tracing out of the latest stimulus bill. The two newly declassified documents, however, practically cry out that, when Comey announced the Trump investigation, he knew or should have known that it had no basis. The House is also set to consider a measure from Congressional Black Caucus Chairwoman Karen Bass, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, Majority Whip Jim Clyburn and others to remove statues and busts in the US Capitol of Confederate leaders and people who promoted slavery. St. Louis Circuit Attorney Kim Gardner The McCloskey’s defenders – including several GOP leaders, President Trump and others have while Missouri Gov. But in a statement sent to The Independent, the US Department for Homeland Security said: “On June 19, Mr Nigel Farage, the leader of the United Kingdom’s Brexit Party, was denied boarding while attempting to fly from the United Kingdom to the United States.

Donald Trump is exploring options for circumventing Congress by consulting with a Bush-era lawyer that tried to legally justify torture via waterboarding. The Fed can support a recovery in asset prices, but this does not translate to the economy. Mr Yoo’s article was later spotted on Mr Trump’s desk. They are just one opinion, and I could very well be wrong too, but the Fed and Jay Powell have made it clear they want the corporate bond markets open and functioning. That was an improvement from the first three months of the year, when investors yanked $33 billion in the largest retreat in more than a decade.Time is growing tight for Trump and Joe Biden to make their cases. As such, the amount of excess cash means either that the US needs to issue far less debt in the current quarter than previously forecast (about $3 trillion), or the Treasury needs to find new and creative ways of delivering all this cash to Americans (ideally individuals rather than corporations this time).

US officials have exempt Nigel Farage from the country’s travel ban under the “national interest” clause, as Donald Trump prepares to hold his first major campaign rally since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. Trump hasn t been such a good economic manager. Mr McConnell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin have previewed that bill by emphasising that it will include measures to help American children return safely to schools, incentivise employers to bring people back to work, and provide enough funds to ensure US health systems can deal with sick patients during the pandemic. [https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/august-recess-pelosi-coronavirus-relief-package-stimulus-check-trump-a9619326.html] Both the House and Senate will take up their separate bills to fund the US military for fiscal year 2021, a process that has largely been bipartisan so far as committee leaders in each chamber have worked behind the scenes to shape the contours of a deal.

He issued a statement saying: “In light of [AG] Barr’s decision to respect the normal operation of law & have Deputy US Attorney Audrey Strauss become Acting US Attorney, I will be leaving the US Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York, effective immediately.” In November, Ms Williams will face Republican Angela Stanton-King, a former reality TV personality who was pardoned earlier this year by president Donald Trump for her role in a stolen car ring for which she was convicted in 2004. Sharing the full story, not just the headlines Download now His message appeared hours after US Surgeon General Jerome Adams’s appearance on Fox News, in which he pleaded with Americans to wear masks in public as infections surge across the US, topping more than 3.7 million, with 1 million new cases within the last month alone. Regardless of Mr Yoo’s understanding of executive powers, the question the attorney raises – which he discussed at length in the National Review – is not if Mr Trump can issue executive orders legally, but rather if he issues them, who would actually stop him?

But he borrows far too much from Trump s anti-trade populism. More than 120,000 people have died from the coronavirus in the US, and more than 2 million people infected. “Even if Trump knew that his scheme lacked legal authority, he could get away with it for the length of his presidency. FBI investigation has shown past contact between [Trump campaign volunteer Carter] Page and the SVR [Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation], but not during his association with the Trump campaign.” [snip] “Officials would not disclose many details, including what was discussed on the calls, and how many of Trump’s advisers were talking to the Russians.” “Again, we are unaware of ANY Trump advisers engaging in conversations with Russian intel officials” and “Our coverage has not revealed contact between Russian intelligence officers and the Trump team.” [snip] “Senior FBI officials believe … Christopher Steele … has a credible track record.” “Recent interviews and investigation, however, reveal Steele may not be in a position to judge the reliability of subsource network.” The FBI’s decision to investigate a duly elected president was arguably the most consequential investigation the FBI has ever undertaken.

“This is worse than anything anyone has ever seen,” Mr Trump said. Geoffrey Berman, who was fired from his position as US attorney for the Southern District of New York while investigating members of Donald Trump’s inner circle (AP) “I was surprised and quite disappointed by the press statement you released last night,” the attorney general wrote to Mr Berman on Saturday. less News > World > Americas > US election Woman wearing ‘I Can’t Breathe’ T-shirt dragged from area at campaign staff’s ‘request’ Tulsa Police place Sheila Buck into custody outside Tulsa’s BOK Centre before Donald Trump’s campaign rally on 20 June. Hospitals across the US are finding that they are short of doctors, and one reason may be the Trump administration’s ban on work visas.

20, 2020 2:09 PM ET|| Includes: BND, GSG, JNK, TIP, VEA, VTI, VWOby: James PicernoJames Picerno Macro, economy, long onlySummaryMost of the major asset classes rose last week.On the flip side, shares in emerging markets suffered the biggest setback last week.For the one-year trend, US investment-grade bonds are still the leading performer for the major asset classes.Equities outside the US in developed markets topped last week’s widespread gains for the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange-traded funds. The US Dollar Dollar Index (.DXY) was more than 0.1% lower. “It is really dejecting, because drilling our first well in 2009 we saw the wave of energy independence at our fingertips for the US, and it was very rewarding . Nevertheless, we expect ETF inflows to remain healthy in the months ahead due to the positive macro environment for gold, including elevated macro uncertainty, massive dovishness from the Fed, significant US fiscal stimulus, and the forthcoming US presidential elections.

China has remained a very active buyer in South America even as it has increased Soybeans buying here in the US, so the overall amount taken from the US might not match the hopes of the trade. The US has had more than 3.7 million cases to date and hit a daily record of 75,643 on July 16th. One of which was a sustainment contract with the US Department of Defense which has a maximum value of $50 million over five years. A cut or suspension hasn’t been finalized, according to a spokesperson for Senate Finance Chairman Chuck Grassley.Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will kick off a first round of negotiations on Tuesday afternoon. If Kanye is indeed done, will Trump now piggy back on the rapper’s talking points in hopes of also grabbing his voter base… Seeking AlphaLong Ideas | Consumer Jul. By March 20, when Comey announced that the FBI was looking into the Trump campaign, FBI agents on the ground had already stated that the primary source had no credibility.

“His pitch tells voters that President Trump’s ‘America First’ economic populism is sound in principle, and only lacking in execution.” News > World > Americas > US politics Close ‘We are not trying to take away your freedoms when we say wear a face covering’ The US Surgeon General has begged Fox News viewers to wear face masks in an appearance on the network on Monday morning. The Treasury secretary gave few details after a White House meeting with Donald Trump and Republican lawmakers to hammer out their plan, though the president’s demand for a payroll tax cut will probably be part of it.

What Everybody’s Talking About Megacities like Beijing and New Delhi have nothing on the tiny Chilean town of Temuco when it comes to pollution. If so, it would no doubt be taken as a staggering affront by Beijing. less 20, 2020 5:05 PM ET|| About: Fanhua Inc. (FANH), Includes: COE, JRJC, LX, VIPSby: Debra FiakasDebra Fiakas Small-cap, long/short equity, special situationsCrystal Equity ResearchSummaryWealth effects of bull market touted by Beijing political leadership, whipping up trading volume and prices of China stocks.Price comparisons of U.S. stock market indices and U.S. listed stocks suggest Beijing’s bullish talk spilled into U.S. stock market.Recent return performance of selected companies in China consumer services sector reveals investor respect for all things ‘online’.Fundamental performance still the best play for investors even when policymakers attempt to lay down trump card.Lately, China’s President Xi Jinping is sounding more like a fervent capitalist than the leader of the largest communist country in the world.

California, Florida and Arizona all reported a slowdown in the increase of new cases, The U.K. suspended its extradition pact with Hong Kong and placed the city under an arms embargo in response to Beijing’s new national security law.

By deciding to cut taxes on production by EUR10bn from next year, Macron aims to further reduce the competitiveness gap between France and Germany. Here is the rest of the deal headlines, as summarized by Reuters: All of the above is, of course, meaningless and the only thing that does matter is whether the ECB will keep monetizing all European debt issuance. Sizing > Idea.This is the way KVP ShareMacro EUCO: No Hamilton moment but a great telenovelaEquities Equities Watch WK #30: AMZN, MSFT, TSLA… Macro Macron’s necessary reform to support the industrial sectorMacro Chart of the Week : Hong Kong Air Freight Volume MACRO The EUCO meeting will resume today at 4.00 pm (Brussels time). Should this actually become the reality on the ground, we wonder: News > UK > UK Politics Close MPs have defeated an attempt by Tory backbenchers to ensure parliament has a vote on any post-Brexit trade deal. Despite the Foreign Office still advising all British nationals “against all but essential international travel”, the Brexit Party leader posted a photograph of himself on Saturday with the caption: “In the USA, only twenty four hours from Tulsa”.

, where the patriotic, aristocratic BoJo/Rees-Moggs of the country leap-frogged their way to sign up to fight under a leadership by the same class best satirised by Blackadder’s General Melchett proclaiming that to repeatedly attack where the enemy was strongest, not weakest, would ensure Britain would: “win the greatest victory since the Winchester flower-arranging team beat Harrow by twelve sore bottoms to one!” Of course, there was also a killer virus then too. The European summit which started on Friday and continued into Monday, where top politicians were meant to agree on the composition of Europe’s recovery fund (originally proposed at €500BN in grants and €250BN in loans), was painfully, excruciatingly long, even by European standards, but it appears to have finally concluded, and following some rather heated and angry comments – mostly aimed at the Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte who has emerged as Europe’s new paymaster now that Merkel has succumbed to MMT – we finally have a deal.

The association handed a petition to Downing Street to ask Prime Minister Boris Johnson to allow circuses to reopen EPA Bamburgh Castle in Northumberland, which re-opened to the public after being closed due to the coronavirus lockdown PA People visit Columbia Road Flower Market, London, as it reopens following the easing of coronavirus lockdown restrictions across England PA A member of bar staff wearing PPE in the form of a face mask, pours drinks inside the The Goldengrove in Stratford AFP via Getty Cardboard cutouts of fans in the stands prior to the League One play-off semi final match between Portsmouth and Oxford United at Fratton Park PA A diver cleans the inside window of the seal tank at Tynemouth Aquarium in North Shields, as it prepares to open on Saturday after further coronavirus lockdown restrictions are lifted in England PA Slackliner Sandor Nagy practices on the beach in Boscombe, on the south coast of England AFP via Getty (left to right) Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald, former Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams, and Deputy First Minister Michelle O’Neill attending the funeral of senior Irish Republican and former leading IRA figure Bobby Storey in west Belfast PA Former Team GB Rhythmic Gymnastic dancer Hannah Martin during a training session at Ouse Valley Viaduct in Sussex Reuters People visit Bolton Abbey in Yorkshire, that recently reopened following the easing of coronavirus lockdown restriction PA A protest for Justice for Shukri Abdi on Trafalgar Square in London, following a raft of Black Lives Matter protests across the UK PA Police at the scene of an incident at the Park Inn Hotel in central Glasgow.

Worried aid leaders believe the move lays bare the real agenda behind Boris Johnson’s announcement, which is to shift funds from fighting poverty to bolstering trade and foreign policy struggles such as resisting Russia.

But in a statement sent to The Independent, the US Department for Homeland Security said: “On June 19, Mr Nigel Farage, the leader of the United Kingdom’s Brexit Party, was denied boarding while attempting to fly from the United Kingdom to the United States. Justin Fox Boris Johnson s coronavirus plan offers little guidance to businesses or confidence he s learned lessons.