Forex Weekly Report 03-11-2019

Hello, my friends! A new month is beginning and so our hopes and expectations of good trading and a better month than the last one and we had a pretty good October, check here our results!

But let’s starts our analysis because past returns are no guarantee of future ones!

BIG MOVERS

This table shows financial instruments that had a 15% change in its non-commercial net position from one week to another, so things that are gaining momentum and should give us opportunities to trade with a direction in mind. 

GBPUSD – BULLISH BIAS

Cable(nickname for GBPUSD) is one of the big movers this week, this alone is sufficient to add to our alerts list and to what we do every week when a pair is trading the long side

Buy Demand and Pullbacks on Supplies Zones

But pound also has another bullish signal, The Commercials COT INDEX! Commercials just changed their bias to short, and you already know that commercials are counter-trend traders

COT FACTS

• Non-Commercials Net Positions Changed from -54k to -35k (HUGE)
• Commercials changed their bias to short
• Stochastic Bullish Signal is about to trigger
• RSI Bullish Signal is about to trigger

COT CHARTS

COT SPREADSHEET MODE

News

This headline from CNBC resume this change in Big specs net positions

 Irish investors more hopeful now that prospects for a no-deal Brexit is fading. Source CNBC

Also, we have this interesting excerpt from an investing.com news

The Bank of England will be launching its rebranded Inflation Report as the Monetary Policy Report on Thursday. The new report will focus on forecasts and ad-hoc analysis rather than merely reviewing the previous quarter.

Interest rates are expected to remain on hold at 0.75% given the Dec. 12 snap election and a new Jan. 31 Brexit deadline.

But the BOE has been edging away from long-term guidance that rates are on an upward path, noting in September that this hinged on Brexit and the global economy picking up. Policymaker Michael Saunders has said since then the BOE cannot wait indefinitely for Brexit uncertainty to lift, and that economic slowdown strengthens the case for easing policy.

Some policymakers doubt a rate cut would do much good. Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden fears the slowdown is damaging the economy’s productive capacity so lower interest rates are more likely to boost inflation than lift growth. Source Investing

And here a great discussion with two experts about Brexit! Worth watching!

Eurointelligence’s Munchau Says the Message to ‘Get Brexit Done’ Is Selling

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We can see that there is a sense of urgency about resolving the Brexit question and also a consensus that a rate cut will do more damage than benefit!  So with this in mind, I am adding to the TOTW alert list GBPUSD, GBPJPY, and GBPCHF. I will be buying demand zones and pullbacks after breakouts of the supplies zone!

And The reason I am adding GBPCHF to the list is this article by reuters

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) may need to take its interest rates further into negative territory, its chairman Thomas Jordan said in an interview with the weekly NZZ am Sonntag. Source Reuters

 

USDCAD – BEARISH BIAS (BULLISH CAD)

For a second week in a row USDCAD is among the big movers to long side, but we are going to play this with a yellow light because its already making a BOTTOM pattern, yet there still room for further downside!

COT INDEX Signals are pretty accurated when is signaling an downtrend, but they usually premature about uptrends! We had a similar signal this year for USDCAD starting at 02-07-2019, signalling that a bottom was in formation! It took more than a month in a accumulation zone that later proved to be a bottom! Now we have a signal triggering at exactly same price it did in July. Trade footprints oftently followed! This makes me believe USDCAD will seek the 1.30 zone again!

COT FACTS

• CAD long position increased (short USDCAD)
• Stochastics still in “Stay short zone”
• Similar pattern took place in July-209

COT CHARTS

COT SPREADSHEET MODE

Price Chart

So this will make me add USDCAD to short list and CADCHF and CADJPY to buy list this week and as always playing demand/supply/pullback zones!

We use supply/demand/pullback alerts like these to trade: