Forex Weekly Report 22-06-2020

Welcome again Ledges! If this is your first time here, welcome! If you don’t follow me on twitter yet, do it now, this way you will get updates on my trades and positions. So let’s stops with the bla bla bla and let’s go to the business.

We had another week of zero movement and tons of false breakouts. None of the trades we were watching gave us a trigger. Patience and Risk management are the key factors to have success in trading, lets exercise the first while nothing triggers 😀

We still seeing mismatched headlines in the same report we have this:

  • In Europe, the U.K. is set to outline the next steps on easing its lockdown measures this week, widely expected to include a relaxation of the 2-meter distancing rules and more guidance on masks and perspex screens in shops.

We also have this:

  • The number of Covid-19 cases in the U.S. is continuing to gain, with Florida seeing the biggest daily increase since the start of the pandemic, providing more fuel to those worried that a full-blown second wave could emerge.

While you may argue that “Nah but these are different countries” but economies are extremely entangled and there is no single country that is self-dependent. I am telling you all this, just to say you the ranging market is here to stay. While no breakout happens or a new measure is announced it will be hard to move out of where we are now.

 

US DOLLAR INDEX – POSSIBLE BOTTOM

I already told how much I love this signal? Or did I told whats happened the last time it triggered? One thing I know I never told is this is the first time that Possible Bottom and Uptrend Resumption signals triggered at the same time. I will not say this is HUGE because there is no enough data in the sample to corroborate it, but at least it’s exciting.

The last time Possible bottom signal triggered was at 28-01-2018 when USDX was trading near 88.00

 

Bloomberg reported the following today:

It’s noticeable that while hedge funds have quickly taken on board one of the first rules of markets — don’t fight the Fed — they haven’t turned net bullish Treasuries. Despite central bank bond purchases and concerns over the continuing impact of the coronavirus, expectations likely remain high among the fast money contingent that the U.S. economy will normalize and yields could soon push higher.

And as you may remember I reached you the relation between yields and the USD. It looks to me that we have a possible bullish scenario for USD.

USDX COMPONENTS next zones

 

aud – bullish bias

Australia currency still pushing the limits and its about to change its positioning to net long. Last week we discussed the factors that are making possible Australia outperform. Nothing has changed, in fact, this week we have more positive news for Australia miners.

Unions at Chile’s Codelco demand more protection against coronavirus Labor unions at Chile’s state-owned copper miner Codelco said on Sunday  that measures taken by the company against the spread of the novel coronavirus were insufficient and threatened to take steps to force stricter health policies. On Saturday the death of the second Codelco mployee from the virus was confirmed, prompting the company to suspend construction projects in northern Chile and take other steps aimed at reducing the circulation of workers

Chile is the world’s biggest copper producer and its facing risks of supply disruptions.

I keep my positive outlook for AUD crosses, especially for EURAUD and NZDJPY.

NZD – BULLISH BIAS

Remember what I told last week about NZD!? The plan is going exactly as we expected. I can see the breakouts we are waiting for happening this week.  NZD is also about to become net long and this will add more fuel to the developing uptrend.

I included a draw that I presented to members last week from NZDJPY.  You just need to wait and don’t fuck the trade. Price is behaving as expected.

That’s it trading warriors! See last week’s report to get more info. I also want to share some of the changes our community is expecting, and say that the crazy price for 3-years subscription is now over. Thank you all members that are putting trust in my work.

Best regards!

Leo Hermoso

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