Forex Weekly Report 30-03-2020

Hello friends! I hope you all are doing great. Here we go for another week where the virus will dominate the headlines again. I am bringing you some information about the corona so you can take your own conclusions.

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:

*Death Rate = (number of deaths/number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentages shown below do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent a share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.

Pre-existing medical conditions (comorbidities)

Patients who reported no pre-existing (“comorbid”) medical conditions had a case fatality rate of 0.9%. Pre-existing illnesses that put patients at higher risk of dying from a COVID-19 infection are:

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY:

*Death Rate = (number of deaths/number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on a pre-existing condition. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by a pre-existing condition. Rather, it represents, for a patient with a given pre-existing condition, the risk of dying if infected by COVID-19.

You can see more here.


I am just asking you to reflect on these numbers and think if it’s really necessary to kill the world economy and the hope of millions of people in name of a disease that is not worse than the average flu. Please no feelings here, just the good and old cold thought, ok?



The shortage of dollars is being equalized by  FED intervention, yet the world is and will trade in contraction and healing mode. The USD is and will be the only game in town. For many reasons, but given the context, the main one is. The USA is opening the economy first then everyone. Make no mistake this will prove to be the right move, check again the coronavirus charts above.

With the world playing the “I am broke mode” I see very hard to European countries to rescue each other and this will be another hard Chantelle to the already fragile EuroZone. The parity is near and at the end of this pandemic we should see EURUSD at 1.00

The last movement index signal we had for EURUSD was on 08/12/2015 an Uptrend Resumption signal and was exactly the bottom. Now we got the opposite signal at a very favorable scenario for EUR shorts.

This same scenario we are seeing for EURUSD is repeating for a lot of other EUR crosses. Here they are:

EUR Crosses short



Trading Plan

Friends, the idea here is pretty simple. I will short EUR against a bakest of currencies take rallies as opportunities to sell and demand breakouts and place to add more to my position.

This is the position I took last night at EURUSD

EURUSD Trading Plan


CADCHF – Uptrend Resumption

We saw on last week’s oil getting hammered and while analysts keep seeing more downside, I think that these levels of prices will make rulers talk to each other again, let fight and misunderstanding aside and focus on their economies again. While I write this headline was just released.


Per analysis, the CAD should suffer more, but per expectation, these levels of prices are super attractive and have the motivation I just talked about.




Trading Plan

The price of the CADCHF is extremely attractive at these levels. I took a position this morning and will add as this develops.

CADCHF Trading Plan



Very interesting move in COFFEE positions captured by the “Big Movers” Tool.

Coffee big mover


After a sharp move down we now we both players ( commercials and non-commercials) making bullish movements. Non-commercials adding to longs and Commercials adding to short. This synchronized move can push coffee prices to 128 again. I am taking a position here.

COFFEE Positions

COFFEE Positions

Trading Plan

I am taking a small position using the last week low as stop-loss and aiming 128 as the target.

COFFEE Trading Plan


That’s it friends. Don’t try to short USD, playing EUR shorts is the best call now. The USA indices and dollar will benefit the most as the corona crisis starts to diminish. So let’s keep following the proposed plan and keep our attention on new economic proposals by world leaders.

Don’t get fooled by the main media unemployment and recession is far worse than the coronavirus pandemic. When you see some world leader proposing and moving to open the economy, make no mistake is right there that you must put your money.

If you want to discuss and see how the trades are managed join me at my trading room.

My best regards

Leo Hermoso


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