Consensus sees weekly jobless claims dropping to 1.25 million when the data is published at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Continuing claims are expected to drop to 17.5 million. With the virus surging again in some states just as government support for businesses is running out, there are fears of a new wave of layoffs. Adding to the pressure on the unemployed is the imminent end to the $600 a week in extra federal benefits, with lawmakers in Washington at a standstill in talks for more stimulus
U.S. retail sales for June are expected to show a 5% growth in the month from May when the data is published at the same time as jobless claims. Also, at 8:30 a.m., the Philadelphia Fed business outlook for July is released. U.S. May business inventories and the July NAHB housing market index are at 10:00 a.m. TIC flow data is at 4:00 p.m. New York Fed President John Williams, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans all speak today
The European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates on hold and maintain its emergency bond purchase program at 1.35 trillion euros ($1.5 trillion) when it announces its latest monetary policy decision at 7:45 a.m.
The worse than expected performance of the Chinese consumer and some reassessment of vaccine progress is putting pressure on sentiment.
The Chinese economy grew 3.2% in the three months to June from a year earlier, beating the median forecast for a 2.4% expansion. There were some worrying signs behind the headline number, with consumer spending coming in weaker than expected.
The U.K. government has set out its plan to avoid disruption to internal trade post-Brexit, seeking to avoid barriers between its constituent nations that would hamper commerce.
METALS
Canada said the U.S. should be patient about determining whether to reimpose aluminum tariffs on imports but says the country will retaliate if the U.S. pulls the trigger.
China daily crude steel output hits new record in June on robust demand China’s daily crude steel output rose 2.4% in June from a month earlier, official data showed on Thursday, setting a second straight monthly record as mills cranked up production on robust construction activity and a pick-up in manufacturing. Output in the world’s top steel producer hit 91.58 million tonnes last month, or 3.05 million tonnes a day, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.
POLL-Red-hot copper to lose steam as investors assess hard facts A sizzling rally that pushed copper prices to two-year highs will lose some of its heat in the coming months as investors take a hard look at supply and demand fundamentals, a Reuters poll showed. Benchmark copper rocketed higher from its lowest in more than four years in March, with investors cheered by stronger demand in China and concerned about possible mine shutdowns.
Anglo sticks to most 2020 output targets despite second-quarter COVID-19 hit Global miner Anglo American on Thursday stuck to its full-year guidance for copper, other metals and diamonds even as it posted an 18% decline in overall second-quarter output due to coronavirus lockdowns. In the three months to the end of June, production of diamonds, platinum, palladium, iron ore, coal, and manganese fell, while copper and nickel rose.
Anglo Asian’s Azerbaijan H1 gold output down 18.8%, keeps outlook Azerbaijan’s leading gold mining company, Anglo Asian Mining Plc, kept its 2020 guidance on Thursday as it reported an 18.8% decline in first-half gold output to 27,922 ounces. Anglo Asian produces gold at Gedabek and other Azeri mines in a joint venture with the state in which the London-listed company holds a 51% stake.
London copper extended losses into a third straight session as Chinese-U.S. tensions, rising COVID-19 cases and doubts over the durability of China’s economic recovery spurred a broad-based sell-off in industrial metals.
AGRICULTURE
NOPA June crush tops all estimates at 167.263 million bushels U.S. soybean crushings declined for a third straight month in June, but the 1.4% drop was smaller than expected and the total amount was the largest June crush on record, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Wednesday. NOPA said its members, which handle about 95 percent of all soybeans crushed in the United States, processed 167.263 million bushels of soybeans last month, down from 169.584 million bushels in May but up from the 148.843 million bushels crushed in June 2019.
Argentina farm minister says no plan to hike grains export taxes Argentina does not plan to increase grains export taxes despite the government’s need for revenue as the coronavirus pushes the country into a deep recession this year, Agriculture Minister Luis Basterra told Reuters on Wednesday. Farmers in the vast Pampas grains belt had worried that the cash-strapped government, embroiled in a complicated restructuring of $65 billion in sovereign bonds, might raise taxes on international shipments of wheat, corn, and soy
U.S. corn to challenge export record to China in 2020-21 -Braun. The new marketing year is still a month-and-a-half away, but the amount of new-crop U.S. corn that has already been sold to China would make those 2020-21 exports the second-largest on record if the full volume is shipped. The Phase 1 trade deal between Washington and Beijing essentially requires record exports of corn and other U.S. agricultural goods to China, something very much on the radar for corn with the way sales are going.
China buys more soybeans as its U.S. crop buying spree continues China’s U.S. farm product buying spree continued on Wednesday, traders said, with private importers in the Asian nation booking more U.S. soybeans as the end of Brazil’s export season approached. Private buyers booked at least five cargoes of U.S. soybeans on Wednesday, or at least 300,000 tonnes, for shipment mostly in October and November from Gulf Coast and Pacific Northwest ports, two U.S. export traders with the knowledge of the deals said.
Chart of the day
The green line in the attached chart is Capital One, a credit card company that’s obviously going to be highly exposed to household finances. The gold line is 10-year yields. For the past 60 days, they’ve moved together hand in hand, peaking within moments of each other. When people were most optimistic about the prospect of a v-shaped recovery (and by implication better household finances) rates were near their recent peak.
