Fresh Info to Start Your Day – New York Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture July 20, 2020



  • They increased their short bet in cocoa futures on ICE by 6,661 contracts for a total short of 30,406 contracts by July 14, CFTC data showed.
  • Most-active corn futures fell more than 5% in the week ended July 14 as weather turned more favorable for U.S. crops.


  • The dollar edged lower against rival currencies, while gold inched up.
  • European equities fluctuated, the euro strengthened and European bond spreads narrowed as progress was made on the stimulus plan.
  • Argentina’s Alberto Fernandez told the FT that an offer to pay 53 cents on the dollar for $65 billion of foreign debt was the last the nation would make.
  • Treasuries gained and the dollar edged lower.
  • The U.S. dollar edged lower against rival currencies, while gold inched up.
  • What Else Is Happening The four EU governments that were holding up negotiations over a 750 billion-euro rescue deal are ready to compromise.
  • The euro oscillated within its prior range of between $1.14 and $1.145.
  • EU holdouts ready to accept 750 billion-euro rescue deal.
  • We might expect something similar for the euro.


  • The dollar edged lower against rival currencies, while gold inched up.
  • Oil dipped and gold was little changed.
  • Copper prices fell as inventories in Chinese warehouses rose, and a surge in coronavirus cases deterred efforts to revive the global economy.
  • Citi says it’s only a matter of time before gold reaches a new record.How much do you really know about coronavirus?New insight into the origin of water on earth.
  • The U.S. dollar edged lower against rival currencies, while gold inched up.
  • ZCCM-Investment Holding (ZCCM-IH), controlled by Industrial Development Corporation (IDC), is a mining investment arm of Africa s second largest copper producer.
  • The speculators also upped their net long position in copper futures and options, the CFTC data showed.
  • STOCKS TO WATCH Yamana Gold Inc (YRI).


  • Brent fell 0.2% w-o-w while WTI, aided by a inventory draw in the USA, ended last week marginally higher by 0.1%.
  • The OPEC+ decision to proceed to phase 2 of the production cuts has also raised concerns on the additional supply that would come into the market.
  • Front month August WTI futures were down $0.16 at $40.29/bbl, with the other 49-month forward contracts trading between -$0.17 and $0.28.
  • Reuters quoting Refinitiv trade flow data put Asian imports of Brazilian crude oil at 1.07 million bpd for H1 2020, up 30% y-o-y.
  • The 4Q 2020 Brent/Dubai rose $0.01 at $1.4/bbl and the Cal ’21 contract declined $0.03 at $1.52/bbl.
  • The Dubai Brent EFS was seen at $0.8/bbl, closer to the MTD average.
  • Saudi seaborne crude exports stood at 32.9 million bbl (4.7 million bpd) against 40.7 million bbl (5.8 million bpd) for the week prior.
  • The August 92 RON Gasoline contracts declined $0.59 at $44.16/bbl; 4Q 2020 was down $0.47 at $44.09/bbl and the 2H Cal ’20 contract declined $0.54 at $44.11/bbl.
  • Shell Says U.K. Can Bring Forward Gasoline Car Sale Ban to 2030 The ban can be brought forward with the right policy and incentives.
  • The massive amount of crude being stored in China may end up weighing on oil imports from August onwards, even with the nation’s recovery in domestic consumption.
  • September ICE Brent futures were $0.24 lower at $42.84/bbl, while the rest of the 48-month forward contracts traded between -$0.24 and $0.03.
  • Elsewhere, crude oil fell for a third session, though remains within a tight range as the coronavirus continue to cloud the demand outlook.
  • Lower exports of refined products, especially gasoline from the refinery could support Asian refined products.
  • August 92 RON-Brent cracks were $0.43 lower at $1.12/bbl; 4Q 2020 dipped $0.41 at $0.30/bbl while the 2H Cal ’20 declined $0.44 at $0.68/bbl.
  • The economies of both nations face a double crisis from the pandemic and crude market turmoil.
  • OPEC+ allies discussed last week and decided to ease production cuts from August and proceed with phase 2.
  • August CFR naphtha-Brent cracks were $0.05 higher at -$1.30/bbl; 4Q 2020 traded $0.06 higher at -$2.50/bbl while the 2H Cal ’20 advanced $0.05 at -$1.88/bbl.

United States

  • Trump claimed the U.S. has the best mortality rate in the world even as Covid-19 deaths exceeded 140,000.
  • But Biden has a 15-point lead over Trump and is up by 10% among likely voters, an ABC News/Washington Post poll shows.
  • It was a sequel to an earlier letter originally published in September 2016, in response to then-candidate Trump s promise to exit the Paris climate agreement once elected.
  • Trump derided Joe Biden as incompetent and said the former VP would cry “Mommy” in a tough interview.
  • The catalyst: a deadly virus and the Fed’s unprecedented measures to prop up the economy.
  • Meanwhile, the company disabled a campaign-style video that President Donald Trump retweeted on Saturday, citing a copyright complaint.
  • President Trump and Republicans in Congress are facing a last chance to keep the economic rout from deepening before the November election.
  • Trump’s handling of the pandemic is a key issue, and his job approval rating has fallen to 39%.
  • In the midst of a devastating pandemic, Trump is destroying the agency’s ability to discharge its most vital responsibility: maintaining surveillance of diseases by gathering, analyzing and reporting data.
  • Donald Trump said without evidence that the U.S. has the “best mortality rate.”
  • Global Headlines Economy panic | Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress have little time to shore up a key pillar for re-election in November: a strong economy.
  • Trump said he will approve plans for health care, immigration and other issues in coming weeks.


  • China stepped up inspections of imported food last month after an outbreak of the coronavirus among people working at and visiting a major food market in Beijing.
  • Bryce Baschuk in Geneva Charted Territory Despite their economic ties, Australia is increasingly willing to risk its diplomatic relationship with China to check Beijing s assertive foreign policy.
  • China reported 22 new cases, with 17 coming from Xinjiang.


  • Later U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo travels to the U.K. to meet Prime Minister Boris Johnson as both countries maintain pressure on China over Hong Kong.
  • Back to Brexit The latest round of talks to define Britain’s post-Brexit relationship with the EU starts today.
  • Concerned by the economic impact of the pandemic, Boris Johnson said he doesn’t want another lockdown and told his cabinet to return to the office this week.
  • Meanwhile, post-Brexit trade deal negotiations are making no progress.
  • There’s a breakthrough in talks on the EU’s stimulus package, Brexit negotiations are underway, and it’s another busy week for corporate earnings.
  • Brexit intransigence | Initial optimism from the EU and U.K. that a deal can be clinched on their post-Brexit relationship is fading.
  • “It is better to agree on an ambitious facility even if it takes a bit more time,” ECB President Christine Lagarde told Reuters.
  • We also publish the Brexit Bulletin, a daily briefing on the latest on the U.K. s departure from the EU.