The GBP/JPY pair has exhibited significant bullish momentum through 2023, ascending over 20% from the year’s trough at 155.36. Recently hitting eight-year peaks beyond 188.50, the upward trajectory can be partially attributed to speculators’ activity as revealed by the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) report and pivotal economic data releases.
Speculators’ positioning, per CFTC COT data, indicates a robust inclination towards lengthy Sterling with rising buy volumes, aligning with the Pound’s appreciation. Conversely, sell volumes, although substantial, have been less dynamic, suggesting that the bullish consensus remains compelling.
Macro indicators provide additional insights. Despite the BoE’s interest rate ascent to 5.25%, meant to quell inflation at 4.6%, the GBP has maintained strength, signalling market approval of these inflation-targeting measures. Furthermore, the BoJ’s perseverance with a -0.1% interest rate underscores the policy divergence, therefore enhancing the GBP’s appeal against the JPY.
The GBP/JPY’s sprint past major moving averages with steady buying pressure suggests the path of least resistance is upwards, barring any sudden shifts in market sentiment or unexpected economic turns, particularly in the spheres of inflation and unemployment rates in the UK and Japan.
Considering the amalgamation of technical setups, COT data, and economic fundamentals, the GBP/JPY pair’s outlook remains predominantly bullish. However, traders should stay vigilant for potential retracements or consolidations after such a sharp climb and be attentive to upcoming economic releases for timely adjustments to their positions.
In summary, while current indicators suggest continued strength for the GBP/JPY pair, it is vital to keep abreast of speculators’ shifts in the COT report and impending economic data that might influence broader market sentiment and currency valuation.0