Open: London Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture April 19, 2021



Yet, despite all of this, US bond yields have fallen, pushing the dollar down.Consequently, the dollar index has given back most of the gains made in March. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.10 per cent to 91.64. Key technical points are 91.30, the March 18 low, for the dollar index, and $1.2000 for euro, which could trigger a run to $1.22, he said. Instead, they are happy that the economy is rebounding, fuelling the so-called reflation trade (long stocks and short the dollar against, well, everything).
Strategists see a euro boost from a pick up in regional growth on the back of faster vaccinations as well as equity capital inflows from a buoyant stock market. The krona seems to have difficulty in gaining ground in an environment of dollar strengthening. A look at the technicals suggests some resistance ahead — from a so-called Ichimoku cloud analysis of the euro’s recent trend — but this is not necessarily insurmountable.
The euro changed hands at $1.19565, near the highest since March 4. The euro capitulation trade.


It reminds me of the trend when everything bottomed out in March 2020, as stocks, cryptos, gold, silver, copper and foreign currencies all surged higher. The reflation trade has also caused the major US stock indices to break to clear blue skies, sending crude and copper prices also higher this week. The falling wedge is a bullish continuation pattern and so with silver breaking out of it, this is technically a very nice bullish development. If this trend continues, we should see bond yields fall further, boosting the appetite for gold and silver.
If the breakout can hold, then silver could climb towards $26.65 initially, ahead of $28.40 next, and possibly $30 thereafter. In the longer term, I still believe that silver could be heading well above $30 regardless of the direction of yields. If silver were to break below $24.70 then it would confirm that the latest breakout attempt has again failed. This has allowed non-interest-bearing assets like gold and silver to rebound sharply.
Gold and silver have stormed back to life as a result.


US oil was down 27 cents, or 0.2 per cent, at $62.96 a barrel, having gained 6.4 per cent last week. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.37 per cent to $66.52 per barrel.

United States

Analysts at National Australia Bank cited “speculation in several online reports” that the US Treasury may crack down on money laundering within digital currencies for the sharp move lower. “Wall Street’s gains amid low volatility “should keep USD rallies contained and attract further USD sellers,” he wrote. In fact, we have had lots of good news from the US economy in the last couple of weeks. The Capital Spectator has been quoted by a range of news organizations, including The Wall Street Journal, Reuters and others.


Here s what s moving markets.Center-Right Fight NightThe battle to lead Chancellor Angela Merkel s conservative bloc into September s German federal election is headed for a final showdown.