Open: London Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture August 18, 2020



Soybean ratings declined to 72% good to excellent, down 2 points from the previous week and in line with trade expectations. The ministry and traders sign a memorandum each year to determine how much wheat can be exported in the marketing season. Arabica coffee prices closed up on Monday and raw sugar futures were mixed in a mild session.


Gene comments on stock, bond, dollar, oil & gold markets, with a particular emphasis on monetary policy, technology issues and S&P intraday action. less After ending yesterday’s session on a flat note at 74.88, the rupee (INR) has opened higher today at 74.76 versus the dollar (USD). The question can be asked, therefore, what is going on in gold, in bond, and in the value of the US dollar? The company is the world’s largest producer of potash, a key source of dollar revenue for Belarus, and is a major supplier of fertiliser to China and India.
This decline in the value of the dollar is likely to continue throughout the year. As Mr. Mackintosh states: To be clear, I don’t think the dollar is about to lose its status as the world’s anchor currency. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which was over 100.00 in May, is below 93.00 this morning. Amid sour diplomatic relations between the countries, China in May imposed anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties totalling 80.5% on Australian barley – effectively stopping a billion-dollar trade in its tracks.
On March 20, 2020, one euro cost $1.0667 at the close of the day. This morning, one euro cost $1.1880.


IAMGOLD has underperformed the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: GDX) while more reputable gold miners like Barrick Gold (NYSE: GOLD) and Newmont Corp. (NYSE: NEM) have outperformed significantly. Lower real yields make gold, which pays no yield, that much more attractive, so a brief correction in real yields helps to explain a brief correction in gold. Gold prices gold prices rose dramatically beginning in March, reaching a new historic high $2,074.90 on August 6.
The balance sheet is good with no net debt and steady gold production with some growth potential with Cote Gold. That would deliver buyers of platinum at current prices returns measured in multiples even assuming gold prices go nowhere. All-in sustaining costs, AISC, were per ounce sold for the second quarter, Below are the historical prices of gold and AISC. The opportunity for investors is that mean reversion could take platinum back up to a 1:1 ratio with gold and then perhaps a healthy premium over the yellow metal.
The case against platinum is that its demand profile is very narrow, dominated by the automotive industry, and is generally not held in monetary reserves like gold. If gold continues to weaken further from its recent highs, IAG could eventually retest the 200 MA at and potentially go even lower. At Rosebel mine, attributable gold production for the second quarter was 52k ounces, extensively impacted by the mid-June suspension of operations.


The company’s quality assets mean that it actually has one of the lowest capital spending to market capitalization among the oil majors. In fact, what investors are betting on is that a dramatic reduction in capital spending across the world will cause oil prices to recover significantly. Malaysian palm oil futures slipped on a gloomy outlook for August exports and worries over rising output as the world’s second-largest producer nears peak production season.
We’d like to see the company use its financial strength to take stakes in troubled oil companies around the world. Effectively, it has much lower risk than current oil companies, which makes its lower yield much more acceptable to shareholders. Saudi Aramco Milestones – Saudi Aramco Investor Presentation Saudi Aramco had held the highest net income, dividends, and total shareholder returns among major oil companies since its IPO. Saudi Aramco Market – Saudi Aramco Investor Presentation COVID-19 caused an unprecedented reduction in worldwide oil demand as a result of COVID-19, causing a collapse in Brent price.
While its oil practically produces itself, it doesn’t need significant capital spending.
That means that through the difficult 1H 2020, the company earned almost $10/barrel, versus nearly $20/barrel a year ago.

United States

The Fed may even opt for some form of average inflation targeting (AIT), where past undershooting translates into a temporarily higher future inflation target. The expectations are returning to a level closer to the Fed’s objective range for consumer price inflation, although still below what the Fed would like to see. If inflation can rise in the future without provoking an increase in rates from the Fed, then real yields will be lower. It isn t doing so at present, and Velis contends that is because investors are already assuming that the Fed is targeting average inflation.
Democrats opened a virtual national convention with broadsides against Donald Trump on the virus, racial justice and the shattered economy. But even in the United States, a confidence trickster like Trump can be elected president and undermine democracy from within. The company that originally IPO-ed to sell a 1.5% stake for $25 billion, is now the second most valuable company in the world behind Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL).
Jerome Powell has driven home the point that the Fed will be moved by progress on the virus, and that little else matters for now. Democrats slam Trump over virus, economy, race at convention. Trump and the postal chief are also being sued by a group of voters and political candidates.


less U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar visited Taiwan for high level meetings last week in a move that angered Beijing.


Looking at inflation forwards – reflecting market expectations of future inflation prints – there is still some way to go before the ECB’s inflation targeting credibility has been restored. Conclusion: EUR inflation swap rates have moved quite a lot higher due to extraordinary monetary and fiscal support and recently also supported by the ECB’s inflation put. Brexit trade talks enter a new round, the U.S.-China tech fight escalates, and a new bidder is interested in TikTok operations.
Round Six A new round of talks to define Britain’s post-Brexit trade relationship with the EU starts in Brussels today. After five rounds of formal negotiations, the U.K. and European Union are still far from reaching a comprehensive trade agreement. On Monday, the EU warned Britain’s banks that they may not be able to quickly gain equivalence for access to the EU market, according to the Financial Times. Source: Handout/Getty Images Boris Johnson’s government apologized and made a U-turn over this year’s pandemic-affected exams after an outcry from schools, parents and students.
There is little prospect of a breakthrough this week, said one EU official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. A) I became an enthusiastic supporter of the EU because I considered it an embodiment of the open society on a European scale. The buyers of the bond need to be assured that the European Union will be able to service the interest.