Open: London Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture February 25, 2021



Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.19 per cent to 90. The rupee depreciated 6 paise to 72.41 against the US dollar in opening trade on Thursday tracking weakness in Asian peers. The political outlook and the dollar smile appear more negative, but primarily from a structural / medium-term perspective.


crude rose 0.25 per cent to $63.40 per barrel and Brent was at $67.33, up 0.43 per cent on the day. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, advanced 0.16 per cent to $67.15 per barrel. It’s clear energy earnings growth will be in the triple digits because of weak comps and higher oil prices.

United States

The Fed seems more relaxed and takes higher longer yields and a steeper curve as a positive sign. Against the backdrop of an ever-improving US economy, however, the Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, and S&P 500 may continue higher in the longer-term despite recent weakness. That being said, not all indices are created equal and the high-flying Nasdaq 100, which has dragged markets higher since March 2020, maybe falling out of favor. The US is running at almost double the pace of the EU, which will likely also allow the US to lift more restrictions earlier.
Tuesday, we talked about a reversal chat pattern in the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) that was created from the price clearing over the 50-day moving average. To that end, exchange-traded fund flow data reveals a series of withdrawals from the Nasdaq-tracking QQQ ETF since January 2021. Estimates have only risen historically coming out of recessions and after the Trump tax cut. We do not want to see Nasdaq fail as that can drag everything with it.


In the spring of 2015, long EUR yields continued to fall on the back of ECB bond purchases despite positive signs from the economy. President Lagarde commented earlier this week that the ECB was closely monitoring the evolution of longer-term nominal bond yields. It remains to be seen how aggressively the ECB is prepared to fight rising nominal yields. However, coming after a long period of very subdued levels and given the ECB’s willingness to keep financing conditions easy, they stand out.
Still, some will find themselves in the spotlight for going too far by essentially imposing blanket bans that disrupt the EU s single market. At least for now, the ECB has not made big changes to the pace of the PEPP. ECB President Christine Lagarde said the institution is monitoring developments, but traders are testing its resolve.