Open: London Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture January 24, 2022

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Currencies

Bullish dollar bets were a near-consensus trade at the beginning of the year, which admittedly should make those with long positions cautious. Bulgaria is joined by Croatia and Romania in striving to adopt the euro, while others like Sweden are intentionally not meeting the requirements.

United States

The models of Grantham, Hussman and others might show that the stock market could fall by 40% or 50%, but would the Fed ever let this happen? The Fed has stepped in to arrest market routs on several occasions over the last quarter-century, but throughout this period low inflation was a constant. Meanwhile, changes in the Fed s balance sheet, the amount of money it s making available to markets, have become hugely important: What About the Fed Put? Goldman Sachs economists said they see a risk the Fed will tighten monetary policy more aggressively this year than the Wall Street bank now anticipates.
The Fed has done nothing to stop the rout in tech stocks or cryptocurrency (and there s no reason why it should). Coming Up European stocks are poised to join the selloff in Asia ahead of the Fed meeting which begins tomorrow. Betting on a crash entails confidence that there will be no put, whether from the Fed or the target-dated fund industry.
But the Nasdaq still went down 82% on his watch.

Europe

The U.S. orders family members at its Kyiv embassy to leave, Boris Johnson s most critical week, the Federal Reserve s meeting and cryptocurrencies selloff eases. The commission told ambassadors Friday that such exceptional measures were no longer needed now that the apparently less deadly omicron variant has spread across the EU. Some protestors smashed the windows of the European External Action Service and others threw projectiles.Restrictions Lifted | EU ambassadors agreed not to add restrictions on vaccinated travelers.
Tens of thousands of people took to the streets, with demonstrations largely peaceful until they neared the EU headquarters. But don’t expect any concrete details on what sanctions the EU might impose.

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