Open: London Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture November 02, 2020



However, history and data show that the euro has, broadly speaking, performed well since its inception (in spite of euro skepticism). The collapse of global interest rates this year has helped position the euro as an alternative to the U.S. dollar. While CHF remains strong as a EUR alternative and (even global) safe haven, the euro serves as a safe haven of sorts to currencies such as the lira. As shown, the euro has spiked recently, yet since the inception of the common currency, it seems to have performed quite well.
The latter also tends to create oil price weakness too, and it has recently, yet the euro area itself is a net importer of crude oil products. Notice that the euro has, on an exchange rate basis, is still below its weighted fair value (as implied by PPP, which is based on relative trade factors). It was last at $0.7018.The Japanese yen was flat at 104.66 per dollar, while the British pound was last a shade weaker at $1.2931.
Most recently, the euro has conceded some of its strength, including against alternative safe havens such as the Japanese yen (see below). Indeed, only two currencies (in the set of ten currencies) have strengthened against the euro since the year 2000. In the new regime of effectively zero interest rates (based on the short-term targets of G10 central banks, at least), the euro still offers the potential for appreciation.


Spot gold rose 0.2 per cent to $1,882 per ounce by 0335 GMT, while US gold futures were up 0.2 per cent at $1,882.90 per ounce. Silver rose 1.2 per cent to $23.92 per ounce and palladium gained 1.7 per cent to $2,250.19, while platinum fell 0.4 per cent to $845.26. “Gold traders are worried that these lockdowns could lead to deflationary pressures… gold’s next trade is really for a reflation trade,” Axi’s Innes said. Gold is seen as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement.


This quarter experienced a little rebound in realized oil, gas, and liquefied natural gas prices and weaker achieved refining and chemical margins. In this case, Shell could quickly drop below Conversely, if oil prices turn bullish (vaccines or else), we may retest Watch oil like a hawk. The trend in natural gas follows the same pattern from $4.21 last year to now Below are historical prices for oil and gas. The oil sector is weak because of a dwindling oil demand due to a paralyzed economy besieged by a stubborn virus pandemic.
The company is part of my leading oil integrated group: Note: Shell is still paying after cutting the dividend last quarter. As I said in the preceding quarter, cyclicality is an immovable part of the oil sector’s equation, and what goes down will go up again. Oil prices have recovered a little from the second quarter’s dismal performance. It raised its dividend after drafting plans to shrink its oil and gas operations while transitioning to low-carbon energy.
However, Shell is highly correlated to oil prices and future demand outlook. Source: Oil and Gas IQ The Hague, Netherlands-based Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) (RDS.B) reported its third-quarter results on October 30, 2020.

United States

As I have been noting in past (VideoCasts) and (Podcasts), President Trump’s poll numbers haven’t been this bad since: That does not mean bad polls = good election results. It also suggests that the V-shaped recovery of bond markets, propelled by the Fed, is unlikely to lead to a V-shaped recovery in real activity. Democrat Joe Biden holds a commanding national lead over President Donald Trump, but Trump has stayed competitive in the swing states that could decide the White House race.
Still, that isn’t stopping politicians from pressuring vaccine makers, misinformation from spreading across social media and the digital realm, and Kamala Harris casting doubt on any vaccine under Trump. The Fed s corporate debt backstop did indeed help to avert a liquidity crisis, then. He claims that actions taken by President Trump and promises made by Joe Biden – both relating to taxes and tariffs – simply don’t help him. Meanwhile, the Fed s support for corporate debt has had another major impact, on banks.
The Justice Department has signaled that recent legal action against Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) is only the first action of many to come from their 16-month investigation.
The Fed s stated support helped buoy the safety of corporate bonds further. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.45 per cent while the Dow fell 0.6 per cent.


But with banks now flush with cash from the ECB s generous loan packages, the deteriorating macro-economic backdrop just isn’t being reflected. (I concede that these weights are for EU-27 trade rather than EU-19, but they are fair to use for our purposes.) A year of Lagarde. U.S. presidential election, Brexit, etc.