Open: London Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture November 06, 2020



For the week, the dollar index was down 1.5 per cent, on course for its biggest drop in almost four months. Against the euro, the dollar traded at $1.1818 after falling 0.87 per cent in the previous session. The British pound traded at $1.3128, holding onto a hefty 1.23 per cent gain from Thursday. Worries about the US economy are growing, which is a reason to expect declines in the dollar to continue into next year, some analysts say. The pandemic is still trending in the wrong direction.” The dollar traded at 103.61 yen in Asia on Friday, close to an eight-month low.
The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies stood at 92.668, close to a two-week low. In the past, most fixed-income investors could expect to recoup around 40 cents on the dollar. The declines in the Aussie also dragged the New Zealand dollar lower. Spain is projected to be the euro area s worst performing economy this year. Joblessness in the euro area is set to rise to 8.3% this year and 9.4% in 2021, according to the Commission s quarterly forecasts.


Source: International Copper Study Group China makes 51% of global copper consumption, so the transition towards a service economy there, is what pulls copper prices and forecasts down. Copper prices are currently at $3 and where copper prices go next depends on the short-term supply-demand situation. There are two ways to approach this: Given the positive long-term trends for copper, you could set a fixed portfolio exposure to copper that makes you sleep well.
Over the past years, there were many new copper mines that had been launched when copper prices were close to $4 in 2011. With copper miners it all depends on copper prices. 2.8MT growth is almost 15% of current mine supply and I don’t think demand for copper will grow at 3% to cover for the already committed new supply. Given the current economic situation, the expected growth in supply of at least 2.8MT by 2025, I don’t see copper prices exploding soon. However, one must not forget that there is plenty of copper out there and that supply will follow demand over the long term.
China’s 51% demand for copper is 10 times more important than all the renewable and electric vehicle-related demand. Middle class by 2030 – Source: EC The Indian economy is expected to be 30 times bigger by 2050, which means much more demand for copper.


Brent crude was off 72 cents, or 1.8 per cent, at $40.21, having fallen 0.7 per cent in the previous session. Combined, the outcomes include oil futures going negative in spring, Chevron reporting a net income loss of $8.3 billion in the second quarter, and Exxon’s dumping from The Dow. Long-term demand for oil has dwindled gradually as societies buff up their alternative and green energy initiatives. He believes that deep cyclicals like airlines and oil will rally sharply higher and that 2021 will be a global economic boom.
US crude futures fell 36 cents to settle at $38.79 a barrel. At the other end are the oil markets, which face both long and short-term headwinds.

United States

Philly Fed employment fell, although the report noted it still saw an overall increase on manufacturing employment. Below you will find a time-line with important dates to note from key battlegrounds and also deadlines when/if the election result is contested by Donald Trump and the Republicans. Philly Fed employment fell in October to 12.7 from 15.7, although the report noted on balance, firms reported increases in manufacturing employment. The Fed refrained from rocking the election boat at the meeting that concluded less than two days after the balloting closed.
The TGA will hence also remain much more elevated than anticipated by the US Treasury in the quarterly funding report. Johnson said Trump’s possible re-election win could produce a toxic environment for his family. The Trump administration defended the sales as part of “continuing efforts to modernize [Taiwan’s] armed forces and to maintain a credible defense capability.” The total flexibility of the QE program is already in place, why the Fed can just increase purchases in between meetings if necessary.
Read our analysis of why Trumpism isn t going away, even if Trump himself leaves office.
By this time China should be on a par or even surpassing the US in geopolitical, geoeconomic and techno power.


Here is how I framed what is at the heart of the Chinese 2021-2025 five-year plan approved at the plenum in Beijing last week.


3:15 p.m. ECB s Robert Holzmann speaks at online conferenceLike the Brussels Edition?Don t keep it to yourself.