Open: London Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture November 19, 2020



A dollar rally would likely keep coffee futures prices below the 135 level—the upper boundary of coffee’s trading range. In this report, I’ll make the case that the ambiguity which prevails in the coffee market—when combined with an improving currency backdrop—supports a bullish intermediate-term outlook for java prices. Indeed, the persistent weakness in the real/dollar pair has been one of the major factors holding back the Brazil-dominated coffee market in recent years.
This in turn could result in lower supply going forward, providing yet another boost for coffee’s intermediate-term bullish case. Political factors point to a weaker dollar, which would also boost coffee. Questions also abound as to how much recent COVID-related shutdowns have affected retail demand for coffee. Cotton seed volumes declined one per cent on account of challenges faced by the industry as illegal cotton seeds were sold in the market. But if poor longer-term weather forecasts materialize as expected, this would be potentially very good news for coffee.


“In my previous article, I have mentioned that New Zealand dollar was one of the most overvalued currencies vs. the U.S. dollar. The reality of rising Covid-19 infections is gripping stocks, the euro toppled the dollar in global payments and a giant chipmaker’s shares slipped. Historically, “expensive” exchange rate of the New Zealand dollar and a bearish divergence between NZD and milk prices enhance the views of a limited upside for the currency. Intraday buying intensity, price change on low volume days, and net dollar interest on up vs. down days are measured by the three.
In this article, however, I would like to outline three reasons to sell the New Zealand dollar. Based on the 24-month running bond spreads correlations, I have calculated that the is overvalued by while the Canadian dollar is overvalued by only . The U.S. currency has weakened more than 11% from its March peak, with predictions of more downside and investors fleeing a bullish dollar exchange-traded fund.
There also seems to be an increasing demand to use Bitcoin where Gold used to be used to hedge Dollar risk, inflation and other things. Traders should remain flexible, however, and be prepared to take some profits on existing long positions if the dollar index rallies from here. Source: FXCM, Bluegold Trader (website), personal calculations What is important is that the relative overvaluation of the New Zealand dollar is rather broad-based.


The pressure on prices is compounded by the demand for silver via a myriad of other developments such as silver’s medical uses. The current annual usage in motor vehicles is in excess 36 million ounces of silver according to The Silver Institute. Conversely, if the gold price turns bullish in the next few quarters, which is not very likely, WPM could eventually cross Watch gold like a hawk. It mainly accomplishes this setup by holding higher weightings in the two leading individual names by size and profitability,Newmont (NEM) and Barrick Gold (GOLD).
Below is a bar graph comparing the iShares MSCI expense ratio to the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF, and peer/competing trusts VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ), U.S. One of the oddities has been the dramatic divergence between Gold (-3.6%) and Silver (-4.4%) on the one hand and Bitcoin (+13.4%) on the other. For the auto industry to manufacture 100% of their vehicles based on the electric format will necessitate a huge increase in demand for precious metals such as silver.
This change in social behavior has driven the demand for more and larger screens and silver is required to make these screens. This quarter’s attributable gold equivalent production was compared to 183,394 ounces in the prior-year quarter. Today we will take a quick look at what these political changes mean for the silver industry and how best to position ourselves going forward.


The decline in oil demand and production in 2020 has sent shares of oil stocks lower, creating higher dividend yields. The new administration is also trumpeting a new: “Green Deal” which suggests that future of oil, coal and gas is now bleak. Here’s a look at three dividend oil stocks for investors to consider. Shares yield 9% and could be a long-term bet on a recovery in oil prices — and Exxon’s history of raising dividends. US crude fell 37 cents to $41.45 a barrel, while Brent crude futures lost 28 cents to $44.06.
One of the largest oil companies in the U.S. and world is XOM.

United States

The largest percentage of deaths by far in the US has been in nursing homes among elderly people with preexisting conditions. The left has also been staunchly opposed to executive orders applied by Donald Trump, but they applaud the idea of executive orders on lockdowns being instituted by Biden. Any further lockdowns will be the final nail in the coffin for the US economy, except for major corporations which are enjoying the lion’s share of stimulus cash.
One of the worst performers has been tech with the US NYFANG index -3.8% since the vaccine news. Then, in October 2019, management announced it was simultaneously suspending its dividend and share repurchase program and deregistering its shares from Nasdaq. During his investing career, Carl Icahn has gone through many dramatic ups and downs, and each time, he staged a major comeback. The US presidential elections are now over, and we need to prepare for a new administration and some new policies.
Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) is one such enterprise which has seen its stock price move from around $329.00 to $484.00 today. The incoming president, Joe Biden has already stated that the US will rejoin the Paris Accord and join the fight against global warming. It also comes as the US and its allies surround China with stealth fighters, called “F-35 friends circle.”


A senior EU official says the bloc s leaders may not be in a position to decide on a more ambitious emissions goal for 2030 without clarity about financing. Against that backdrop, EU lawmakers and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will discuss how to improve the systems in the region.