Currencies
Supporting the rupee bulls, the dollar index hints at weak dollar. The United States federal government shutdown of 2018-2019 (the longest U.S. government shutdown in history) drove gold higher and the dollar lower. Paul Davies writes in the Wall Street Journal that many in the market expect the value of the U.S. dollar to continue to decline. As the new economic stimulus pushes up the expectations of inflation in the U.S. versus what is expected in many other countries, the value of the dollar should decline.
The medium-term (next six months) picture of gold in relation to the dollar is more bearish than the long-term (greater than one year) possibility. Reverse repo has correlated positively with the dollar since 2015, and it has increased this positivity since the pandemic started. Then there are the market strategists at Citigroup (NYSE:C), who, Mr. Davies reports, think that in 2021, the dollar could fall by another 20 percent. One thing for sure, the dollar is widely discounted, while those bullish on risk assets has rarely, if ever, been higher.
This will continue so long as the dollar weakens/stock prices rise. Strong inflows helped the rupee gain ground against the dollar.Dollar indexThe dollar index ended flat on Thursday as 92.
The medium-term (next six months) picture of gold in relation to the dollar is more bearish than the long-term (greater than one year) possibility. Reverse repo has correlated positively with the dollar since 2015, and it has increased this positivity since the pandemic started. Then there are the market strategists at Citigroup (NYSE:C), who, Mr. Davies reports, think that in 2021, the dollar could fall by another 20 percent. One thing for sure, the dollar is widely discounted, while those bullish on risk assets has rarely, if ever, been higher.
This will continue so long as the dollar weakens/stock prices rise. Strong inflows helped the rupee gain ground against the dollar.Dollar indexThe dollar index ended flat on Thursday as 92.
Metals
When the gold price is at a maximum, money managers and small speculators tend to be maximally long, while producers and swap dealers tend to be maximally short. Investors with a short term perspective can buy the stock of Jindal Steel & Power at current levels. Source: Author via Tradingview After the fund’s recent declines, the iShares Silver Trust is now trading near critical support levels that can be found near $20.40. Gold’s correlation with reverse repo, on the other hand, was negative, except with a foray into positive during 2019 and again over the past month (blue arrows).
From the perspective of the short-term technicals, gold looks close to bouncing off support (1770), which corresponds to the 50% Fibonacci retrace of the March to August rally. Overall, we think that investors have limited options under this scenario, and this is why we expect downside in the iShares Silver Trust to be somewhat limited going forward. As a result, there is very little evidence which suggests that the short-term bearish reversal in the iShares Silver Trust is likely to continue for much longer.
Source: ETFdb Over the last three-month period, the iShares Silver Trust has been impacted by negative outflows of -438.22 million. This short-term rise in gold is supported by the technicals. Source: ETFdb However, this does not tell us that “all is lost” or that the bullish trend is over for the iShares Silver Trust.
From the perspective of the short-term technicals, gold looks close to bouncing off support (1770), which corresponds to the 50% Fibonacci retrace of the March to August rally. Overall, we think that investors have limited options under this scenario, and this is why we expect downside in the iShares Silver Trust to be somewhat limited going forward. As a result, there is very little evidence which suggests that the short-term bearish reversal in the iShares Silver Trust is likely to continue for much longer.
Source: ETFdb Over the last three-month period, the iShares Silver Trust has been impacted by negative outflows of -438.22 million. This short-term rise in gold is supported by the technicals. Source: ETFdb However, this does not tell us that “all is lost” or that the bullish trend is over for the iShares Silver Trust.
Oil
Its forecast is included below: … average price of $42 per barrel over the next 12 months and $48 per barrel in the following 2 to 5 years. Meanwhile, Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, was trading 0.02 per cent higher at $47.80 per barrel. Coming Up European and U.S. stock-futures are steady, ending the week in cautious fashion, and oil pared its weekly gain ahead of next week’s OPEC+ meeting. The good news is that the price of oil has been rallying really well and is at an 8-month high as I type this.
The good news is that Royal Bank of Canada is well-diversified and should not be shell-shocked by a few oil loans going bad. If they cannot get back to $50 oil, they are in trouble when it comes to paying those debts off. (Source: Company Presentation) The Oil & Gas sector is the second headwind I will mention today.
The good news is that Royal Bank of Canada is well-diversified and should not be shell-shocked by a few oil loans going bad. If they cannot get back to $50 oil, they are in trouble when it comes to paying those debts off. (Source: Company Presentation) The Oil & Gas sector is the second headwind I will mention today.
United States
In the last few decades, the uranium market in the US has been decimated due to incredibly low uranium prices due to environmental concerns (i.e. Following the same pattern, the U.S. stock market rose with all three major stock indexes, DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ, reaching new, historical highs just before the Thanksgiving break. The Canadian housing market did not really feel the pinch that the US housing market did in 2008/09, and is well overdue.
Investor presentation Furthermore, in 2020, US President Trump issued an executive order deeming the reliance on foreign adversaries of critical minerals is a threat to national security.
This deposit is a leading graphite development property in the US. Unsurprisingly, most of the , whose owners and editors are themselves members of the CFR, didn’t like President Trump. In 2016, Donald Trump’s “America First” campaign reactivated this 100 year old foreign policy trauma. In 2020, China will account for roughly 80% of all natural graphite produced, while the US only accounts for 1%. Today, Wall Street continues to use Zacks research including the Zacks Rank and Zacks Equity Research, which combines the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis.
Unheard of in the days when all Wall Street could say was “Buy”.
Investor presentation Furthermore, in 2020, US President Trump issued an executive order deeming the reliance on foreign adversaries of critical minerals is a threat to national security.
This deposit is a leading graphite development property in the US. Unsurprisingly, most of the , whose owners and editors are themselves members of the CFR, didn’t like President Trump. In 2016, Donald Trump’s “America First” campaign reactivated this 100 year old foreign policy trauma. In 2020, China will account for roughly 80% of all natural graphite produced, while the US only accounts for 1%. Today, Wall Street continues to use Zacks research including the Zacks Rank and Zacks Equity Research, which combines the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis.
Unheard of in the days when all Wall Street could say was “Buy”.
Europe
Europe’s stimulus package remains at an impasse, in-person Brexit talks are to restart and more trials are likely for one of the Covid-19 vaccines. The European Union is now starting the effort of wooing U.S. President-elect Joe Biden’s team in the hope of accelerating talks to normalize trade relations. The U.K., however, has taken steps to get the vaccine approved before the rest of Europe by skirting EU regulators. That after some progress was made on a mini tariff-cutting deal between the two, with the EU removing levies on U.S. lobster.Face-to-FaceU.K.
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