Open: London Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture November 30, 2020



Gene comments on stock, bond, dollar, oil & gold markets, with a particular emphasis on monetary policy, technology issues and S&P intraday action. “A renewed push above $2,000/oz in the next 3-6 months seems likely,” the bank added in a note, citing its bearish dollar outlook and low-interest rates as tailwinds. The pandemic crisis response has already broken many taboos that used to divide euro members: can it also give them the impetus to tackle this final frontier?
Coming Up Euro Stoxx 50 futures are pointing lower ahead of the final trading session of what could be the best month ever for Europe’s main equities gauge. In other words, this should be dollar-bearish.


Steel Dynamics has seen earnings decline by an average of 2% per year over the last three years, while revenue has grown by 1% per year. Silver slipped 3.2 per cent to $21.96 per ounce, while platinum fell 0.9 per cent to $954.64 and palladium was down 0.4 per cent at $2,416.22. As with most industries, the steel industry has been hurt by the global health crisis, and Steel Dynamics has seen its earnings and revenue drop as a result. The rally in steel stocks has been more orderly and not quite as extreme as what we have seen from copper stocks.
Spot gold fell 1.2 per cent to $1,766.26 per ounce by 0301 GMT. The last time we saw such a big bullish position on copper was in June ’18 when the price of copper was hovering right at $3.30. Gold is down 5.9 per cent so far this month, its biggest monthly decline since November 2016. ALSO READ Demand for gold jewellery expected to rebound in H2Gold is seen as a hedge against inflation likely to result from monetary stimulus.
Copper prices have shot up very rapidly, while aluminum and steel prices have also rallied. I do think steel companies will see improvement in their earnings and revenue as the global economy starts to run at an increased pace.


The weak earnings were due to a significant decline in oil and gas prices, despite some UK production increase. The detail per segment is shown below: Source: From the company presentation (extract) Equinor’s realized price for liquids was $38.3 per barrel during the third quarter of 2020. Mid-week, oil prices closed above $46/bbl for the first time since March, and closed the week above $45/bbl. The OPEC meeting next week is expected to see the group extend production cuts beyond January 2021.
Rising oil and gas prices didn’t seem to help minerals MLP BSM. Oil prices could improve with recovering demand, which will greatly help Equinor’s upstream operations. Oil and natural gas were strong this week. It has also avoided any exposure to the oil and gas sector. This dichotomy will create an increase in volatility in the oil sector that will last many months. We’re not in a tanking mode, and not going to be near-term; though big-cap value’s behind generally (not entirely; some oil, telephony and industrials are still not juiced).

United States

While these stocks represent less than 5% of available stocks, their market cap exceeds $19 trillion out of the approximately $33 trillion (57.6%) of the US stock exchanges. The population of this unique mega cap segment is approximately 330 stocks out of over 7,800 stocks across the US stock exchanges. For the next 53 batches of votes counted, Biden led Trump by the same exact 50.05 to 49.95 percent margin in every single batch. They were unusually large in size (hundreds of thousands) and had an unusually high (90 percent and above) Biden-to-Trump ratio 3.
Late on election night, with Trump comfortably ahead, many swing states stopped counting ballots. There is a whiff of speculative excess around both:Meanwhile, as President Trump has commented, the Dow Jones Industrial Average passed 30,000 for the first time, just before Thanksgiving. The potential market opportunity is very large as Parkinson’s is affecting about a million people in the US alone, of which 40% has related disease psychosis.
Frederick Kaufman tackles the complex history of money, beginning with the earliest myths and wrapping up with Wall Street’s byzantine present-day doings.
Trump grew his support among black voters by 50 percent over 2016. As I’ve contended for months; this market is interested in stability; and tended to prefer a Trump victory.


Budget Tensions | It’s also the last week to get a deal on the EU’s next multiannual budget and celebrated stimulus plan. If Poland and Hungary don’t drop their veto by next Monday, the functioning of the EU will face serious disruption, raising fundamental questions about the future of the bloc.