Open: London Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture October 01, 2020



Raw sugar futures closed up on ICE on Wednesday as the front-month October contract expired and traders noted the largest delivery ever for the exchange at 2.62 million tonnes. MARKET NEWS Chicago soybean futures rose for a second session to trade near its highest since early March as strong demand from China tightened U.S. supplies. Russia, one of the world’s largest exporters of wheat, competes with France, Ukraine and other major producers for supplies to Africa, the Middle East and elsewhere.


Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.19 per cent down at 93.70. The rupee strengthened by 22 paise to 73.54 against the US dollar in opening trade on Thursday, as positive domestic equities and weak American currency buoyed investor sentiments. The economic data agenda is busy again, topped by manufacturing activity for the euro-area, the U.K. and later for the U.S., plus jobless claims for the latter.


Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released late evening on Wednesday showed crude oil inventories having reduced by 2 million barrels to 492.4 million barrels. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.19 per cent to $40.95 per barrel. Also, at 492.4 million barrels, oil inventory is still above pre-Covid levels of last year, at 422.6 million barrels. Analysts add that increasing supplies from Libya to the OPEC+ and higher production in Russia, too, will be weighing on sentiments in the near term on crude oil futures.
Crude Value Insights offers you an investing service and community focused on oil and natural gas. In the four tables below, meanwhile, you can see the same thing, but this time with $50 oil and $2.50 natural gas. Malaysian palm oil futures rose 2.3% on bargain buying and overnight rally in soy prices on the Chicago Board of Trade. Oil held onto gains after U.S. crude stockpiles shrank. The resurgence of Covid-19 cases in Europe and other parts of the world is raising doubts of a sustained recovery in demand for oil.
Today, it is up about 2 per cent and trading at ₹2,937/barrel (9.00 hours IST), but analysts continue to hold a bearish outlook for the near term.

United States

A recent Wall Street Journal/NBC poll found 47% of Biden supporters plan to vote by mail whereas 86% of Trump supporters plan to vote in person. In June, the Fed released the results of its annual stress test and additional analysis, which found that all large banks were sufficiently capitalized. The draft communique we have echoes Donald Trump a bit, stressing “the need to rebalance the economic relationship and achieve reciprocity,” while also lambasting Beijing’s human rights record.
However, just in case they weren’t, the Fed also restricted banks from increasing dividends above second-quarter levels, and buybacks were banned. We could emerge on Election Eve with Mr. Biden polling ahead by no more than four points, putting President Trump within striking distance in the Electoral College. The US Air Force has revealed a new stealth fighter prototype it says has already secretly built and flown, according to Defense News. She succumbed to her wounds at a nearby hospital, after which investigators found her ID, indicating she was employed by the US embassy in the Ukrainian capital of Kiev.
Pack was appointed in June and started a big shakeup at the US state media outlets run by the USAGM, like Voice of America and Radio Free Asia. The Senate will be more motivated to pass something if the stock market falls or if Trump’s poll numbers weaken. Beyond the campaign trail, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he sees “one more serious try” at securing a deal on a fiscal stimulus package with Congress.


This US interference gave Beijing the foreign boogeyman it needed to pass the controversial national security law. Speaking of which, they will welcome (and give themselves credit for) Xi Jinping’s commitment to carbon neutrality.


President Lagarde even opened the door for considering make-up strategies, where the ECB would allow inflation overshooting for some period following the recent years of too low inflation. Inflation Overshoot | ECB President Christine Lagarde says it s worth examining a Federal Reserve-style strategy that allows inflation to temporarily rise above the institution s target. Thus, the next policy move is still not likely before the December meeting, though ECB speeches could turn dovish earlier on.
Reading between the lines suggests that TLTROs at sweetened terms will be preferred over rate cuts, which supports our thinking on the ECB’s next policy steps. Expecting higher inflation The main message was that the world today is different than it was in 2003, when the ECB’s current strategy was last revised. Merkel said Germany will return to normal spending levels as soon as possible as she defended its unprecedented borrowing to deal with the fallout from the pandemic.
EU leaders will vow to make the bloc strategically autonomous, reducing their dependence on imports from countries like China.
When the ECB president mentions overshooting, it is more likely to end up in the final document. There are concerns about getting the virus under control, Brexit talks continue and Biden’s chances of winning increase. A key question now is whether the EU will move quickly to trigger tariffs against the U.S. or await the outcome of the Nov. 3 election.