Open: London Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture October 08, 2020



The consultancy revised down its 2020 corn harvest outlook to 31.74 million tonnes from 34.02 million tonnes a month earlier. Coffee exports in September, the last month of the 2019/2020 season, more than doubled from the same month last year to reach 56,448 60-km bags. Russia, one of the world’s biggest wheat exporters, is harvesting a large crop this year. Child labour increased in the world’s top cocoa producer during the coronavirus lockdown, according to a report in June by the Swiss-based International Cocoa Initiative (ICI).
MARKET NEWS Chicago soybean futures rose for a fifth consecutive session, buoyed by concerns over dry weather in key exporting countries.


Gene comments on stock, bond, dollar, oil & gold markets, with a particular emphasis on monetary policy, technology issues and S&P intraday action. The dollar struggled to recoup losses against other majors, excluding the kiwi.The euro edged up to $1.1770. EU budget negotiations are continuing and if each side digs in its heels, then delays in the 1.8 trillion-euro economic recovery package will become unavoidable.


Vancouver-based Sandstorm Gold (SAND) released its initial gold equivalent production for the third quarter of 2020 on October 5, 2020. The average cash cost per attributable gold equivalent ounce is estimated at resulting in cash operating margins of per ounce. Preliminary cost of sales, excluding depletion for the three month period, was resulting in record cash operating margins of approximately per attributable gold equivalent ounce. The weak production is also surprising because I thought that Yamana Gold’s (NYSE:AUY) silver stream would have gotten a big boost in Q3, with the silver price up significantly.
A little bit better sequentially, the gold equivalent production shows a concerning trend that will have to be addressed quickly. The last two quarters were quite disappointing in terms of gold equivalent production. Here is the gold equivalent production detailed by producing mine in 2Q’20. Gold production for 3Q’20 was 12,100 GEOs, down a whopping compared to the same quarter a year ago and above the 10,920 GEOs produced in Q2’20.
Unfortunately, the gold equivalent production was again surprisingly weak, as we will see later. The bullish case for gold is if the metal resumes its uptrend and reaches $2,000 per ounce.


The BTC pipeline delivers Azeri light crude oil (mainly from the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli field) through Georgia to Turkey’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan for export via tankers. Tulsa, Oklahoma-based NGL is a master limited partnership (MLP) that transports oil and natural gas liquids through its pipelines. Submitted by SouthFront, Armenian forces launched a missile attack on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline, according to Azerbaijan.

United States

The Fed has your back only applies to the largest companies, not small businesses, he said, which is creating a wide dispersion in outcomes. The Fed’s prohibition on share buybacks to force banks and other Financials to retain capital (an order of the Fed which was reiterated late last week). Zooming right back up- after President Trump flip-flopped even later at night than our late-night Briefing last evening, S&P responded to his truly softened stance.
Europe’s virus cases are spiraling out of control again, Trump may target Ant Group, and the state of Brexit talks may not be as bad as it seems. The Phillips Curve underpins the Fed’s legislated mandate to balance the inflation-induced cost of improving the circumstances of the unemployed with the low unemployment-induced cost of excessive inflation. The trend is likely to continue at least this year on the Fed’s super easy money policy. But the index of mobility and engagement compiled by the Dallas Fed suggests that low mobility remains a national phenomenon.
Actually, we take that back: what is the scariest is that the US economy is now literally on perpetual life support. There seems to be a substantial portion of the US population that is liquid and ready and willing to take on credit. To make this conspiracy theory stick, this would mean both Melania and Donald Trump are liars.


Beijing sees this as ‘shots fired across the bow’ from within the heart of its sphere of influence, given these very nations are so reliant on China for trade.


It also refuses to put illiberal democracies on a tighter leash, insisting that the terms attached to EU budget disbursements can’t substitute EU Treaty provisions for upholding the rule-of-law. The EU s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, then told a meeting of European ambassadors that he didn t expect the U.K. to walk away, according to officials present. Elaborate Choreography The U.K. government threatened on Wednesday to pull out of trade talks with the European Union if no clear deal is in sight by Oct. 15.
Lean On Lagarde | European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde ruled out removing the institution’s unprecedented monetary support until the coronavirus crisis is over.
Will this be enough to convince EU lawmakers and reluctant parliaments to give their required backing? Nikos Chrysoloras and John Ainger What s Happening Quit Threat | As Brexit negotiations heat up in London today, it’s clear the stakes couldn’t be higher. We also publish the Brexit Bulletin, a daily briefing on the latest on the U.K. s departure from the EU. EU officials, who don’t recognize that deadline, are pessimistic about that level of progress by then.