Open: London Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture October 10, 2022



By the end of last week, sterling was falling against the dollar again.


The decision by the OPEC+ countries last Wednesday to cut production quotas by 2 million barrels per day was taken as geopolitical aggression that would raise the price. Falling oil prices have owed a lot to the belief that a recession is setting in, and that this would reduce demand for oil. Oil Another potential reason for a pivot: the oil price. That could be a big question for both the oil price and the last month of the political campaign. It is already at or near the top of its downward trend channel since midsummer, and approaching the psychological levels of $100 per barrel and its 200-day moving average.
OPEC+ has been producing less than its total quota for a while.

United States

Key this week is the US inflation data, which has a non-negligible chance of surprising and cementing bets on a 75-basis-point rate hike next month. This might be enough for the Fed, but it won t want to see any ease until there is confidence about victory against inflation. Coming Up European shares are poised for a soft start to the week after a strong US jobs print bolstered wagers for more aggressive Fed hikes. The Fed is hoping that it can rein in inflation via the means of tighter financial conditions.
Goldman s Consumer Dream Ends Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon once predicted the firm would be a leader in retail banking, like it is on Wall Street. The US has more fast-growing tech companies that can justify a higher multiple, so it s not necessarily such a bad sign that the US looks more expensive. It fostered the impression that this Fed would turn on a dime. It s Fed s fault if we see a damaging recession, says El-Erian. The lasting lesson is that it really matters whether and when the Fed turns.
The ECB’s Mario Centeno and Philip Lane speak at events, while the Fed’s Lael Brainard and Charles Evans address a conference.


The trip comes less than two months after President Emmanuel Macron visited the former French colony in a bid to reset relations after years of tensions. He s on the defensive after multiple EU leaders blasted his debt-financed 200 billion plan to rein in energy costs through next winter. Adding an extra-territorial dimension to the EU s toolkit indicates a major policy shift for the bloc, we re told. They later address the Tallinn Digital Summit 9:30 a.m. EU foreign police chief Josep Borrell addresses the EU ambassadors conference 10 a.m.
The ECB has raised rates twice since July, each time more than initially flagged. EU eyes new sanction power on third- country firms.