Open: London Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture October 14, 2020



The U.S. soybean crop was 61% harvested, the USDA said, well ahead of the five-year average of 42% and slightly ahead of the average analyst estimate of 59%. MARKET NEWS Chicago soybean futures slid, weighed down by a rapid pace of U.S. harvest, although losses were limited by lack of rains in top producer Brazil. Coffee may revisit its September high while cocoa its July low.


The euro was barely changed at $1.1742.The Australian dollar has been slugged by news that China has stopped taking shipments of Australian coal, dragging the Aussie to one-week lows. The onshore yuan last traded at 6.7422 per dollar. “Many factors are pointing to more upside for the dollar,” said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities. Gene comments on stock, bond, dollar, oil & gold markets, with a particular emphasis on monetary policy, technology issues and S&P intraday action.
Both developments are supporting the dollar, traders said. The efficiency ratio measures the amount spent to generate a dollar of revenue. Across the Tasman Sea, the New Zealand dollar edged higher against its US counterpart. The measure for the euro area also dropped.Today s AgendaAll times CET.


Gold may drop more, driven by a wave four Base metals may keep their bullish momentum awhile, but with limited upside.


REUTERS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Q4 OUTLOOK 2020 – WANG TAO Oil may have completed a strong bounce from its April low and is expected to fall deeply. Similar outlook is on palm oil which could have peaked in September.

United States

McConnell s proposal to vote next week on just one provision appeared to stoke opposition even from President Donald Trump, who tweeted Go big or go home!! Miraculously, QE saved the day, and the US stock market had the longest recovery on record, while the economy enjoyed modest growth rather than a recession. The overwhelming majority of the national political media have determined that the fate of the Trump presidency is a matter of life and death to their own credibility.
President Trump recently said China “will pay a big price” for the unprecedented havoc wrought by the virus on modern society. “The US has to deter such an act, and these types of training missions are part of that – forward presence and resolve being communicated to Beijing,” he said. This experiment has never been conducted before, especially not in the magnitude of the one carried out by the US, although the one conducted by Japan comes close. “It’s unusual for the US to dispatch fuel tankers from Guam [instead of from Kadena airbase in Japan] because such operations are uneconomical and inefficient,” SCSPI said.
Indicating low inventory levels, the report is consistent with some other recent data like the regional Fed manufacturing surveys. In that article, I use the research of Professor Lawrence Kotlikoff on US debt and my earlier article on the US being broke. (Source: Author) The US is not alone in incurring unprecedented debt, as I describe in “Per Capita World Debt Has Surged To More Than $200,000.”


Take, for instance, a South China Morning Post (SCMP) report, citing a Beijing think tank that said at least 60 US warplanes conducted reconnaissance flights near China in September. Concern over escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing have been center stage in 2020.


EU leaders will tomorrow declare with concern that there hasn’t been sufficient progress in talks on a Brexit deal, according to a draft of their communique. The new iPhone range was announced, the Brexit deal deadline is tomorrow and another Covid-19 drug hit a snag. That’s the question due to be discussed today between EU lawmakers and Germany, which represents national governments, in negotiations over the bloc’s budget and jointly-financed recovery plan.
We also publish the Brexit Bulletin, a daily briefing on the latest on the U.K. s departure from the EU. That s according to a veteran EU official involved in imposing some of the biggest-ever penalties.