Open: London Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture October 21, 2022



Bloomberg Economics estimates the drag on growth ranges from near zero in the US, to 0.2 percentage point in China, and 0.8 percentage point in the euro area. Until it s resolved, lawmakers won t be able to proceed with business including legislation to access EU funds, euro adoption and the purchase of F-16 fighter jets.


Amped up US oil production and reduced energy intensity of output globally mean the drag from rising prices is smaller than in the past.

United States

Fed Governor Lisa Cook said that inflation would likely require ongoing rate hikes and then keeping policy restrictive for some time. It further implies that the imbalance between the Fed s hawkishness and the rest of the planet could grow wider.


Brexit still vitiates British politics, and so the debate has moved to a claim by Remainers that this debacle shows that taking back control was always futile. The rush to replacing Liz Truss, emergency action on Europe s energy crisis, national security questions over Elon Musk and the ECB s campaign to rein in inflation. The other is whether Boris Johnson, deposed in disgrace earlier this year, can persuade enough MPs to help him get his old job back. Questions of Sovereignty Britain has been tearing itself apart over the diaphanous issue of sovereignty for generations, far predating the Brexit referendum.
Photograph: Universal History Archive/Getty Until now, there might have been an impression that Brexit would liberate Britain to do things like big unfunded tax cuts. EU leaders meet for day 2 of their summit, with economics on the agenda. They could probably piece together a credible cabinet by reinstating some of the casualties from years of post-Brexit infighting.
The ECB s deposit rate is expected to reach 2.5% by next March, more than the 1.5% foreseen in an earlier poll. The EU was never an impediment to this, but the capital markets still are.