Agriculture
Previous week corn price forecast Difference between supply and demand shows overbought market and the fair price at the level $350. Previous week soybean price forecast Difference between supply and demand showing overbought market and the fair price between the levels $930 – $1000. Jaundice spread by aphids, which have proliferated during warm weather, have caused severe damage to sugar beet fields in parts of France, the European Union’s largest sugar producer.
Negative soybean conditions for this year pushing price up, but for further uptrend above $1060 we do not have such negative conditions as minimum till the next WASDE report. Black Sea wheat from Russia and Ukraine is not banned in Algeria, but the country’s strict insect damage limit has effectively ruled it out from purchase tenders. Bad corn conditions for this year can push prices up and it can reach the $390 level, but after this has more potential for downtrend back to $350.
Negative soybean conditions for this year pushing price up, but for further uptrend above $1060 we do not have such negative conditions as minimum till the next WASDE report. Black Sea wheat from Russia and Ukraine is not banned in Algeria, but the country’s strict insect damage limit has effectively ruled it out from purchase tenders. Bad corn conditions for this year can push prices up and it can reach the $390 level, but after this has more potential for downtrend back to $350.
Currencies
BL Research BureauThe rupee (INR) wrapped up last week with a marginal gain at 73.45 versus the previous week’s close of 73.53 against the dollar (USD). Dollar Index: The Dollar Index is in the 92.00-94.00 range. The dollar broke below JPY105 in the middle of last week for the first time since July and remained below there ahead of the weekend. Australian Dollar: The Australian dollar is carving out a range between $0.7200 and $0.7400. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.16 per cent to 92.77.
With all the attention commentary on the euro, it was the yen, whose 1.6% gain last week, led the majors. The lower Bollinger Band is found two standard deviations from the 20-day moving average (~JPY104.70), but the dollar had moved nearly three standard deviations (~JPY104.15). One is the renewed dollar weakness that may be exacerbated going into the end of the current quarter.
Euro: The single currency covered a good part of its range last week. The failure for the dollar to close below MXN21.00 suggests a consolidative/corrective phase may be at hand.
With all the attention commentary on the euro, it was the yen, whose 1.6% gain last week, led the majors. The lower Bollinger Band is found two standard deviations from the 20-day moving average (~JPY104.70), but the dollar had moved nearly three standard deviations (~JPY104.15). One is the renewed dollar weakness that may be exacerbated going into the end of the current quarter.
Euro: The single currency covered a good part of its range last week. The failure for the dollar to close below MXN21.00 suggests a consolidative/corrective phase may be at hand.
Metals
If this happens the gold market will crush our already bullish gold forecast for 2021. Gold: Gold rose for the second week, eking out a nearly 0.5% gain. However, history has clearly shown that stocks tend to perform very poorly during periods of rising inflation, while gold performs well. Within our Momentum Investing portfolio we keep a very close eye on the gold and silver market, particularly we look at miners. As a trader though we saw an opportunity, and initiated a position in the gold market.
We could easily see inflation rise to double-digit levels and the gold/SPX ratio double and triple before policymakers are forced to undertake austerity measures. If last week’s commentary was relevant, what is new to talk about gold this week? So yes, there is no news on the gold front, but at the same time breaking news. This might be a great setup for gold to move higher from here, even though not immediately. Gold was slightly lower, with spot prices at $1,951.3 an ounce.
We could easily see inflation rise to double-digit levels and the gold/SPX ratio double and triple before policymakers are forced to undertake austerity measures. If last week’s commentary was relevant, what is new to talk about gold this week? So yes, there is no news on the gold front, but at the same time breaking news. This might be a great setup for gold to move higher from here, even though not immediately. Gold was slightly lower, with spot prices at $1,951.3 an ounce.
Oil
Malaysian palm oil futures inched up, rising for a fifth straight session tracking stronger Dalian oils and higher September exports so far. That would probably mean that the Teekay LNG units offer the best value as that business has a lot of ships on long-term contracts. The share value alone of Teekay LNG common units in the partnership has a current value that could retire the debt of Teekay Corporation with money left over. The conversion of the general partner profit interests of Teekay LNG (TGP) to another roughly 10 million shares considerably increased the distributions to the parent company.
Oil: The sharp sell-off in US equities ahead of the weekend saw the November WTI contract snap a three-day nearly 10% rally. This is one business that has benefitted from the excess oil production and the need for storage. But besides the control premiums (Teekay manages both Teekay LNG Partners and Teekay Tankers), the individual companies really have made some financial progress over the last couple of years.
Crude futures are little changed this morning after their biggest weekly rally since June.
A combination of better rates and more newer ships in operation at Teekay LNG led to net income for Teekay (the parent). Now the OPEC production cutbacks will probably affect Teekay Tankers in the third quarter negatively.
Oil: The sharp sell-off in US equities ahead of the weekend saw the November WTI contract snap a three-day nearly 10% rally. This is one business that has benefitted from the excess oil production and the need for storage. But besides the control premiums (Teekay manages both Teekay LNG Partners and Teekay Tankers), the individual companies really have made some financial progress over the last couple of years.
Crude futures are little changed this morning after their biggest weekly rally since June.
A combination of better rates and more newer ships in operation at Teekay LNG led to net income for Teekay (the parent). Now the OPEC production cutbacks will probably affect Teekay Tankers in the third quarter negatively.
United States
We have also seen a simultaneous decline in real interest rates as Fed policy has become increasingly short-termist. It’s also worth noting that the USD and GBP short ends are discounting lower Fed funds and SONIA rates, with the latter priced to fall into negative readings. Most countries say the Trump administration doesn t have the authority to demand adherence to the sanctions snapback after quitting 2015’s nuclear accord, a pact Pompeo describes as “silly.”
US Rates: The US 10-year yield edged almost two basis points last week to 0.68%. The latest CFTC data, released Friday, showed how speculative positioning in Nasdaq e-mini futures has climbed to the most bearish level since 2008. Lethal Fall | As vacations and parties fed a late-summer surge of Covid-19 in Europe, there s been one reassuring constant: a lower death toll. Leading from behind, Barack Obama got the US involved in the Libyan war while starting the largest drone war in history in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Yemen.
With all of this going on, the Fed could also react. Under the current setting, the Fed itself does not see its objective being meet in the next couple of years. Trump also pulled the plug on a series of planned airstrikes against the Islamic Republic of Iran.
US Rates: The US 10-year yield edged almost two basis points last week to 0.68%. The latest CFTC data, released Friday, showed how speculative positioning in Nasdaq e-mini futures has climbed to the most bearish level since 2008. Lethal Fall | As vacations and parties fed a late-summer surge of Covid-19 in Europe, there s been one reassuring constant: a lower death toll. Leading from behind, Barack Obama got the US involved in the Libyan war while starting the largest drone war in history in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Yemen.
With all of this going on, the Fed could also react. Under the current setting, the Fed itself does not see its objective being meet in the next couple of years. Trump also pulled the plug on a series of planned airstrikes against the Islamic Republic of Iran.
China
However, given that the currency is heavily managed, Beijing’s intentions are critical. Nio ES6 was recently selected as the ground support vehicle at the Beijing – DaXing International Airport.
Europe
New restrictions to stem the illness’s growth in London could be announced, with the U.K.’s chief medical officer set to sound the alert to Prime Minister Boris Johnson today. A meeting of EU foreign ministers today will highlight why calls are growing to scrap a requirement for unanimity on sanctioning other countries. FOMC, ECB, BOE OIS forwards €STR as well as one-week and one-month Euribor fixings have been below the Eurosystem/ECB deposit facility rate (DFR) for a long time.
Capital Markets | The EU will this week consider new efforts to grow its capital markets now that London is outside the bloc. The gathering will also show why it’s so difficult for any EU government not least a small state to accept such a change. Cyprus is standing firm, saying Turkish provocations have persisted, and its demand to sanction more Turks predates the EU push for penalties against Belarus. We also publish the Brexit Bulletin, a daily briefing on the latest on the U.K. s departure from the EU.
Yes, we acknowledge that the likelihood of an ECB rate cut has increased, but it’s not our main scenario. It comes after Prime Minister Boris Johnson confirmed the country is undergoing an of infections on Friday. Now Johnson s strategy for a free-trade pact with the EU before the end of the year is in tatters.
0 Capital Markets | The EU will this week consider new efforts to grow its capital markets now that London is outside the bloc. The gathering will also show why it’s so difficult for any EU government not least a small state to accept such a change. Cyprus is standing firm, saying Turkish provocations have persisted, and its demand to sanction more Turks predates the EU push for penalties against Belarus. We also publish the Brexit Bulletin, a daily briefing on the latest on the U.K. s departure from the EU.
Yes, we acknowledge that the likelihood of an ECB rate cut has increased, but it’s not our main scenario. It comes after Prime Minister Boris Johnson confirmed the country is undergoing an of infections on Friday. Now Johnson s strategy for a free-trade pact with the EU before the end of the year is in tatters.
