Open: New York Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture April 01, 2021



The producer survey revealed lower than expected corn and soybean plantings while this year’s US winter wheat seeding were revised up 1.09 million acres from January’s initial Ag Dept. Corn’s 91.14 million 2021 survey level was 2.06 million below expectations, but only 327,000 higher than last year. Both, US soybeans and wheat (WEAT) quarterly stocks were modest higher than trade expectation, but corn’s March 1 stocks were lower than expected. stocks was modestly below expectations, but this stock level implies corn’s feed demand rose 110 million bu.
Overall, the reduced corn (CORN) and soybean (SOYB) planting levels prompted an immediate price jump. Recent Chinese buying will likely tighten corn’s stocks by 200 million in April’s balance sheet. The USDA’s corn quarterly stocks caught the trade’s eye. This pace is below 2010/11’s 75.6% Sept to Feb level, but price ratioing seems needed to attract wheat feeding to slow this usage. Few assets have fared worse: namely, the price of orange-juice futures, cocoa, Turkey’s lira and long-term U.S. government bonds.
Corn’s 7.7 billion bu.


less The rise in the US 10 yr has pulled up the US dollar, but soon the trillions of new money printing will soon pressure the dollar south. As the euro continues to strengthen against the pound, the key pair with the dollar is expected to recover to 1.1762, or to 1.1810 under an optimistic scenario. If the nonfarm payrolls number fails to meet an estimation of 647k, this could lead to a deeper pullback in the US Dollar and buoy bullion prices. The dollar is mostly firmer, but the euro held the $1.1700 support.
Two critical data points are eyed on Thursday, and they may push the dollar higher. We can see below the dollar ‘T Theory’ cycle suggesting we near done, and a period of change is due in the next 4 to 6 months. Gold prices rose as yields eased and the dollar slipped. Gold prices rose as yields eased and the U.S. dollar slipped. EUR/USD is under pressure amid renewed US Dollar strength after Biden presents his infrastructure plan (UUP).
Prices returned to above a psychological level at $1,700 as the DXY US Dollar index retreated from a four-month high.


less Last year we saw gold, silver, and mining stocks soar into August after the Spring stock market crash. * Timers Digest has Tim Ord ranked number 5 in gains for the S&P and second for gold timer for 2004. less US home prices continue to gallop ahead. This potential double bottom for gold also is happening after the RSI crossed below 30, to give an extreme oversold reading. We also advise investors to have a well-diversified portfolio with the right mix of equity, debt, gold and other asset classes.
Gold miners are flush with cash after prices rose, fueled by investors seeking safe-haven status amid the pandemic. Forecasts of a rapid global economic expansion this year, powered by vaccinations and U.S. stimulus, have tarnished gold’s allure as a haven in uncertain times. My favorite indicator for the gold trend is actually the GDX/GLD relative strength as it tends to be a leading indicator for both. A rising real yield may weigh on gold prices despite a temporary retreat in the Greenback.
Gold futures on Wednesday closed their worst quarter since 2016, falling 9.5% to $1,713.80 a troy ounce.
If you have gold, bonds, or other asset classes in your portfolio, we’ll address that at the end.


Crude oil prices are prices are on the rise on Thursday, recouping some of the losses from the previous session ahead of the OPEC meeting today (OIL). US crude oil and gasoline inventories fell last week and refinery throughput was seen near a one year high, on account of improved demand. Crude oil inventories fell 876,000 bbl against a Reuters poll estimate of an increase of 107,000 bbl. Gasoline stocks fell by 1.7 million bbl compared to the poll forecast of a 730,000 bbl gain.
I have worked in the areas of oil refining, natural gas production, synthetic fuels, ethanol production, butanol production, and various biomass to energy projects. OPEC+ meanwhile lowering its 2021 oil demand growth forecast by 300,000 bpd, prior to a meeting on Thursday meant to decide on output policy, similarly weighed on prices. Brilliant Cartel OPEC and its allies are holding talks today on whether to prolong the vast production curbs that have been in place to support the oil price.
Crude oil prices were little-changed during Thursday’s APAC trading session after falling over 3.8% over the prior two sessions. During the first two years of his first term, President Bush oversaw low and relatively stable gasoline prices. Oil rise on hopes that OPEC and its allies will keep production curbs in place when they meet.

United States

That would mean the Fed having a permanent presence in the market, allowing eligible banks to convert Treasuries into cash on demand, as an ever-ready backstop. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who was Fed chair during one market wobble, says “extreme policy interventions” are a sign that some repair work is needed.There’s lot of reasons. BEFORE THE BELL Wall Street futures were in green as chipmakers gained, while investors awaited weekly jobless claims data.
Wall Street futures were in green as chipmakers gained, while investors awaited weekly jobless claims data. In September 2019, the Fed had to flood the repo market with hundreds of billions after interest rates spiked in a sign of distress. Europe’s Down Jones Stoxx 600 is edging closer to last year’s record high, and US futures are trading with a clear upside bias, led by the Nasdaq. A central clearinghouse (CCP) that handles many if not all Treasuries trades, supported by capital supplied by its members, could limit the need for Fed interventions.
While higher rates for corporates may weigh on Wall Street, it means less debt issuance, which is positive for bonds. With Governors of many states pushing for federal decriminalization of marijuana, Wall Street analysts believe these two cannabis stocks will gain significantly in the near term. Biden would boost the corporate income tax rate to 28% from 21%, which was set in former President Donald Trump’s 2017 tax cut.


New York, London Winning Finance Hubs’ Race for VaccinationsVaccine hesitation appears widespread in the population, fueled by post-inoculation deaths and lingering distrust in the Beijing-backed government.


Last year, BNEF expected the industrial and power sectors covered by the EU carbon market to reduce their emissions by 50% by 2030. It now expects the sectors covered by the EU carbon market to reduce their emissions by 63% in the same period. Proposals for European-wide spending and taxing programs, along with the desire of higher-income EU countries not to pay perpetual subsidies to lower-income countries, run into these realities every day. Coronavirus cases continue rising in the old continent and the threat of overwhelming France’s health system caused President Emmanuel Macron to impose a monthlong lockdown.
That means that the average carbon intensity of the remaining EU power generators is higher.
Thus, it’s interesting that the European Union continues to show large gaps in hourly labor costs. By now, I have built up excellent skills and experience in analyzing macroeconomic and political developments in Europe, the Eurozone and Germany, including ECB watching. Norway and Iceland are not part of the European Union, but they are part of a broader grouping called the European Economic Area.)
A report on structural racism in the U.K., commissioned by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, was released on Wednesday. Main focus: Europe, Eurozone, Germany and ECB.