Open: New York Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture April 02, 2021



less All the gauges are flashing green – FXStreet’s Leading Indicators checklist for March’s Nonfarm Payrolls report are pointing to a positive outcome, and that may boost the dollar. less Kathy Lien Follow After rising strongly in March, the U.S. dollar kicked off the month of April with losses against most of the major currencies. In fact, there’s a good chance Friday’s number will beat, which would reinforce the U.S. dollar’s dominance and inspire fresh gains in the currency.
Treasury bond yields tellingly drifted lower and the US Dollar backtracked from recent highs, offering a familiar lift to the non-interest-bearing, anti-fiat yellow metal. Moreover, if there is one currency the dollar has more to run against, it is the euro. Consumer confidence weakened in March, according to ANZ, but as a currency with generally bigger moves, it benefitted the most from the pullback in the U.S. dollar. Despite an unexpected improvement in building permits and higher oil prices, the Canadian dollar refused to rally.
With fewer bonds circulating, they are worth more – and the result is lower yields and therefore a weaker dollar. Ahead of today’s payrolls report, the uptick in claims is a negative factor for the dollar. But if you bet against the market and the dollar and bet on gold then, you’ve taken L’s on all three since.


Gold prices popped higher from support near $1680/oz, pushing through downward-sloping resistance guiding them lower since the beginning of the year. After all, anyone who heeded their advice missed out on gold’s record run in 2020 – and on many years of outperformance since 2001. less Longtime gold bashers are gloating over the precious metal’s recent price slump. Gold shows virtually no correlation to stocks and bonds, meaning it can rise when paper assets fall.
That is likely to bid up bond yields alongside the Greenback once again, capping gold gains. It’s no mystery why many who work in the financial industry hate gold. Financial professionals concoct various rationalizations for why gold is a bad investment. Gold’s fate now hinges on the all-important US NFP report, with the US economy expected to add 647K jobs in March. Gold prices have declined more than 10% in the first quarter of 2021. The volatility could be slightly higher during and after the NFP so the USD/JPY and Gold will be affected.


DoublePoint was running seven drilling rigs and was on course to produce 80,000 barrels of oil a day as of the first quarter this year. Its state-owned company, Aramco, has visibility of oil demand two months in advance — the time period in which it informally receives orders from global refiners. Oil climbed after the OPEC+ alliance agreed to increase production gradually over the next three months. Biden s plan includes $16 billion to help retrain and employ fossil fuel workers to plug orphan oil and gas wells and clean up abandoned coal mines.
If March condensate output was in line with February’s, then daily crude-only output would be around 9.41 million barrels a day, some 165,000 barrels above than its OPEC+ quota. They won t, and they shouldn t. Biden s infrastructure plan, for example, is projected to cost around 130,000 jobs in the oil, coal, and gas industry. As countries like the U.S. rapidly expand their vaccination programs, there are growing signals that the oil market is healing.
Although European oil consumption is weak as France, Germany and Italy extend or impose new lockdowns, demand indicators from China remain strong. With oil prices firmly above $60 a barrel, the group has been under pressure to open the taps. Europe’s biggest oil producer leads the way in EV adoption, but it still guzzles just as much gas.

United States

The US is on an amid a solid vaccination campaign, state reopenings, two rounds of stimulus checks – and optimism about a new infrastructure package. If you don’t think that will work in conservative-leaning jurisdictions, consider that voters in Florida went for former President Trump in 2020 but also approved a $15-an-hour minimum wage. All other Argentine provinces have emerged from default, so fed-up bondholders are suing in a U.S. court, setting the stage for either resolution talks, or an even harder stance.
The White House laid out a US$2.25 trillion effort, which fell somewhat short of the US$3 trillion that traders thought was on the menu.
Today, Wall Street continues to use Zacks research including the Zacks Rank and Zacks Equity Research, which combines the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis. The Nasdaq managed a gain which took it above its 50-day MA, but it remains pegged by swing high resistance of both March and February swing highs. In line with the median forecast, the US economy is expected to create 550,000-650,000 new jobs in March.
Moreover, rising COVID-19 cases in the US – despite rapid immunization – also curb some of the enthusiasm. He has been quoted in a variety of financial news publications, such as CNBC, the Wall Street Journal, and the New York Post. The gains in the Nasdaq came with ‘buy’ triggers for the MACD and stochastics as technicals return net bullish.


David J. Merkel, CFA — 2010-present, I run my own equity asset management shop, called Aleph Investments. David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. In addition, Italy’s government imposed a five-day quarantine on people entering from other EU countries in a bid to deter Easter getaways. Friday’s video-conference was chaired by the EU’s top foreign envoy Josep Borrell and involved officials from Iran, Russia, China, Germany, France and the U.K.
The minister made similar requests to the European Union.