Open: New York Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture April 05, 2021

A member of the National Guard plays a trumpet during a flag rai


Last week’s US producer planting intentions dramatically surprised the markets when the USDA data was sharply lower than trade’s expectations for 2021’s corn (CORN) and soybeans (SOYB) seedings. China’s second buying spree last month suggests that the USDA will up corn’s exports by 200 million bu. However, this will likely be handled by upping corn’s feed & residual by 50 million bu. Corn’s March 1, stocks were 66 million bu. soybean stocks were 30 million higher than the trade’s estimate.


Read More: Macro Traders Couldn’t Care Less About Dollar Debasement FearsStill, opportunities to short the dollar may re-emerge as Europe’s pandemic situation improves, the Goldman team said. Meanwhile, the DXY US Dollar index was a little moved amid a quiet trading session as several key APAC markets are closed for public holidays. Among higher yielding nations, Canada’s favorable sovereign ratings and limited U.S. dollar funding concerns make it an attractive alternative to many emerging-market counterparts.Not everyone is upbeat on the loonie.
After bearishly breaching support at around 31.00 to the dollar, the path is clear for Thailand’s currency to fall toward its July low of 31.858. He favors the Canadian dollar versus most other G-10 currencies except the greenback. Not only has gold performed poorly, the dollar is still dominant.Not only that, inflation has been mild, contra to what all the Goldbug Macro types would have predicted.
Technically, the loonie is flirting with key long-term hurdles against the U.S. dollar, euro and yen. Increased appetite for equities dented demand for gold, while the dollar was slightly up. Increased appetite for equities dented demand for gold, while the U.S. dollar was slightly up. This may support dollar (UUP) and put some downward pressure on gold (GLD).


Gold loans had boomed over the past year as small businesses tried to revive themselves from lockdowns by pledging family jewelry that’s a staple of almost all Indian households. The rapid healing of the labor market from the second pandemic wave may reinforce reflation hopes and dampen prospects for gold prices. less Gold (XAU/USD) is holding onto the recent recovery gains at around $1730 on Easter Monday, with thin trades offering little incentives. Non-yielding assets such as precious metals appear lackluster against this backdrop, and exchange-traded gold ETFs have suffered continuous outflows over the past few months.
less Gold prices fell modestly during Monday’s APAC morning session, pausing a three-day gain as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed more than 3%. As we saw in the wake of the Great Financial Crisis and over last summer, gold seems to do well during periods of stagnation plus aggressive Fed easing. However, gold remains at risk of witnessing some wild moves amid holiday-thinned market conditions.
Shrimp, blinds, bamboo products, gold jewelry and rattan furniture may face duties. S&P 500 futures pointed to a jump at the open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.72%, oil dropped and gold was lower. Image Source: Pixabay The Technical Confluences Detector shows that gold needs a firm break above $1729, the Fibonacci 61.8% one-month, to extending the two-day recovery momentum.


Saudi seaborne crude exports for last week were seen at 36.9 million bbl (5.3 million bpd) compared to the revised 35.3 million bbl (5.0 million bpd) the week prior. Oil prices fell, driven by the decision of OPEC+ to gradually ease some of its production cuts and higher Iranian output. US crude production were reported at 11.1 million bpd, according to EIA, an increase of 100,000 bpd. The recovery in prices were on the back of OPEC+ decision to gradually ease the production cuts between May and July.
Last Thursday, oil prices advanced more than 3% as OPEC+ surprised the market with a total 2.25-million-barrel production hike from May to July (table below). Increasing insistence from within and outside the OPEC+ led to the producer group agreeing to gradually increase production and reduce the supply cuts that have been in place. That being said, the market is likely to see a lot of noise in this general vicinity as we continue to see oil jump back and forth.
But it still remains higher than at any time since the runaway spike in oil prices in the summer of 2008. Pioneer Natural Resources Co: The U.S. oil producer agreed on Thursday to acquire privately-held rival DoublePoint Energy for about $6.4 billion, speeding up a consolidation of shale oil producers.
Refinitiv Oil Research continued to see exports from Northwest Europe (NWE) to the US last week as the transatlantic route showed favourable arbitrage conditions.

United States

BEFORE THE BELL Wall Street futures rose, and Japan’s Nikkei ended in green, after robust U.S. jobs data raised hopes for a quicker economic recovery. The Fed is expected to increases rates sooner than previously anticipated after the US jobs blowout strengthened the prospects of faster economic recovery amidst higher vaccination rates. According to Bullard, the Fed is: “…now more likely to allow inflation to develop to a certain degree and allow that to feed into inflation expectations.
Kosovo lawmakers elected U.S-educated jurist Vjosa Osmani president, filling a post held by an ex-guerrilla who stepped down last year to face war crimes charges. The question for investors is whether Fed policymakers are too optimistic about their ability to intervene in time to keep a lid on inflation. less Billionaire investor Carl Icahn’s investment firm (IEP) has hired a former (GE) executive as the company’s CEO, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday.
Let’s wait to see those outcomes.” Fed policymakers are working hard to allay investor fears about this new policy. During this time the size of the Fed’s balance sheet rose to nearly $8 trillion from under $3 trillion. “The other uncertainty is the pace of the vaccinations and the virus.”Made in U.S.A. Reflation Trade Is One Export World Doesn’t WantOn the vaccine front, news was more encouraging. The latest quarterly stocks data along with the US domestic & export trends will update the April 9, US old-crop balance sheets.


As a result, EU members may continue to impose lockdown measures or restrict cross-country travel, potentially constricting economic activity and slowing recovery efforts. The next few months will be dominated by the search for proof that the U.S. can avoid overheating , and the EU can get its vaccination program on track. U.K. PM Boris Johnson Seeks Tests for All Two Covid-19 tests a week recommended in drive to open economy. If the EU can improve its record on this front, it could soon make up much of the gap.
The greatest concerns are inflationary pressure in the U.S., and the EU vaccination program.