Open: New York Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture April 21, 2021



As far back as January this year, BusinessLine had warned of an emerging wheat glut (see Is India heading towards a wheat glut?, January 7). Third successive year This is the third successive year of large wheat harvest, far beyond what the country needs in terms of actual consumption plus buffer stocks. New variety may lift wheat output to a record this yearIndian wheat is currently outpriced in the export market. The London-based International Grains Council has projected global wheat production for 2021-22 at a record 790 million tonnes (last year 773 mt).
As of April 1, the government was holding 27 million tonnes (mt) of wheat stocks, over three times the minimum stock norm. Advance signalsAwash with wheat, the world market is not ready for the Indian cereal. But quality issues may continue to haunt Indian wheat. To be sure, the current wheat glut was not unexpected at all. The risk of a collapse in wheat prices cannot be ruled out.


However, since other dollar pairs such as AUD/USD and GBP/USD declined, we can probably attribute the move lower to a stronger dollar rather than a weaker euro. Gene comments on stock, bond, dollar, oil & gold markets, with a particular emphasis on monetary policy, technology issues and S&P intraday action. Here are three reasons why the euro may move higher: The much-needed downside equity correction may now make way for a fresh increase, as seen in S&P 500 futures.
The greenback has been gaining ground in a risk-off mood – investors have flocked to the safe-haven dollar while stocks declined. After reaching 1.2080 in the London session, the EUR/USD turned south, triggering a similar move on other dollar pairs. The greenback is mostly firmer, though the Canadian dollar is resilient ahead of the Bank of Canada meeting outcome. The Swiss franc, the euro and the British pound were down 0.1%, 0.2% and 0.1% respectively against the U.S. dollar.
A gentle increase in shares may weigh on the dollar. We had been seeing a lot of demand for stocks and selling of the US Dollar and this had set up the expectation for a turnaround. Over the past month, the NZD has been the weakest currency against the US dollar due to its strong fall on March 23rd.


China is estimated to have produced 83 million tons of crude steel in February, up 11% year over year, according to latest data from the World Steel Association. Now, China’s demand for iron ore to feed its steel mills and underpin its economic recovery has driven the industry’s benchmark price to its highest level since February 2011. 1 miner by market value reported a 4% increase in iron-ore output for the first nine months of its fiscal year through June, to 188.3 million tons.
less Gold prices rallied to an eight-week high as viral resurgence in some parts of the world dampened the growth outlook, boosting the demand for safety. The miner expects overall production of the steelmaking ingredient at the top end of its 245 million tonnes (Mt) to 255 Mt forecast range. The surge in iron-ore prices has been underpinned by stronger steel prices in China after Beijing last year ramped up stimulus spending with a focus on infrastructure. As price moves in gold and silver have shown in recent months, precious metals tend to be volatile, and their prices zigzag.
Gold is little changed near $1780, and oil is consolidating at the lower end of yesterday’s wide range and outside down day. Still, strong Chinese steel demand and wide margins among steelmakers will limit any retreat in prices in the near term, Goldman Sachs said. Steel prices, also around decade highs, have been encouraging mills to churn out more of the material to meet demand from industries including construction and automobiles.


For the latest week, an industry body in the US forecasted gasoline stocks have fallen by 1.6 million bbl against the poll estimate of a build of 500,000 bbl. As a result, gasoline stocks fell by 1.62 million bbl, compared to expectations of a 464,000 bbl build. According to a US oil and gas agency, commercial crude stocks in the country rose by 436,000 bbl in the week ending the 16th of April. A Reuters poll had predicted a draw of 2.98 million bbl in crude stocks and a 0.7 percentage points increase in refinery runs.
The discovery contains between 19 million and 26 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) of recoverable resources, which could be immediately put into production, it added.
Asia Gasoline 92 R crack spread traded 6% lower on wednesday as compared to previous session. Oil dropped as increasing COVID-19 cases in India dented fuel demand outlook. Equinor ASA: Equinor has discovered more oil and gas at its Tyrihans field in the Norwegian Sea, the company said. Refinitiv Oil Research did not register any arrival of diesel and gasoil from the US into Europe this week (see US to Europe Diesel Report).
Gasoline markets saw softening of sentiment on Wednesday as resurgence of Covid-19 cases in many countries weighed on the gasoline market.

United States

Results from the latest quarter missed Wall Street’s average estimate by 2 cents per share. BEFORE THE BELL U.S. stock index futures were little changed after Wall Street closed lower in the previous session as the surging global coronavirus infections hit travel-related stocks. U.S. stock index futures were little changed after Wall Street closed lower in the previous session as the surging global coronavirus infections hit travel-related stocks. Lithia Motors Inc: The auto retailer topped Wall Street estimates for first-quarter profit as the auto retailer benefited from strong demand and higher vehicle prices.
The key word in Fed communications of late, which is likely to be repeated at next week s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, is transitory. Next week, the top six US companies – all tech – report, and the Nasdaq acts wobbly ahead of this. The US equity market indices corrected yesterday, but not enough to deserve much of a mention.
Wall Street nicknames them “set ‘em and forget ‘em” funds because their strategy purportedly adjusts risk lower as you age. A dovish Fed is also helping the upside to the precious metal as the US central bank remain committed to its supportive policy. Despite strong economic data released in the US and China recently, growth prospects appeared to be uneven in other parts of the world.


This is in line with Chinese President Xi Jinping’s goal of having a quarter of the country’s energy consumption from non-fossil fuel sources in 2030. Unless Beijing fixes the problem, green-power stocks—and China’s towering clean-energy ambitions for the next five years—may remain grounded.


David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David J. Merkel, CFA — 2010-present, I run my own equity asset management shop, called Aleph Investments. Germany’s top court clears road for EU recovery fund ratification. EU reaches deal on binding goals that change everything. His feature articles have been published on:,, Action forex, Forex TV, Istockanalyst, ForexFactory,,, etc.
Furthermore, the German index is the “blue-chip index” for the European Union.