Open: New York Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture April 23, 2021

A member of the National Guard plays a trumpet during a flag rai


The sugar industry has set the 60 lt target in view of the Centre extending Rs ₹3,500 crore as assistance for sugar exports this season. In turn, the Uttar Pradesh mills gave their export market release quota to their western counterparts, allowing seven lt of sugar for exports. “Though we have contracted 52 lt for exports, physically 33 lt of sugar have been exported,” said Rahil Shaikh, Managing Director, MEIR Commodities India. We have to see if we can export more than the targeted 60 lt for this season,” said Praful Vithalani, President of All-India Sugar Traders Association (AISTA).
“This year, we can sell beyond the 60 lt export target as the sugar market is expected to stay firm. Last year, sugar mills got an average incentive of ₹9,750 a tonne for exports, with the Centre spending ₹6,300 crore totally. “We can definitely ship 60 lt of sugar with the assistance provided by the Centre,” he said. But lack of unity among the mills has resulted in sugar being sold lower than the minimum sale price of Rs 31 a kg,” Mohan said.
His view stems from the recent developments that have seen sugar prices rise 3.3 per cent in the past week and 9.66 per cent the past month. As a result of this, Maharashtra sugar mills gave their domestic market release quota to Uttar Pradesh mills.


The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading lower by 0.15 per cent to 91.19. The euro and the British pound gained 0.3% against the U.S. dollar and the Swiss franc was mostly flat against the U.S. dollar, with 1 franc buying $1.09. “As a result, the dollar is likely to fall against the yen, but the larger trend for the dollar is still mixed. The dollar traded lower ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting next week, while gold prices rose.
In global markets, gold prices edged higher amid falling US Treasury yields and a softer dollar. The dollar can still rise against commodity currencies if commodity prices start falling again.” The US dollar lost ground across the board during the first two days of the trading week. The most susceptible among those assets likely being other high-beta stocks and currencies, especially risk-sensitive ones such as the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollars.
The surprise index hints of a massive positive Global PMI surprise The million-dollar question is if longer bond yields will follow up alongside this cascade of positive data surprises. For instance, suppose a trader buys futures that pay off if bitcoin rises against the U.S. dollar.


In domestic markets, gold prices edged higher in early trade today after a sharp drop in the previous session. Stricter social distancing measures and lockdowns are expected to dent domestic demand for gold as the pandemic situation worsens in the country. less Gold prices paused a rally and retreated form an eight-week high after India reported the world’s highest daily COVID-19 infections of 314,835 on Thursday. Even with the recent volatility in prices, gold remains among the best-performing commodities this year to combat the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.
Green brews | Anheuser-Busch InBev will use solar power to brew Michelob Ultra Pure Gold beer in its latest effort to appeal to younger, more environmentally conscious consumers. A better-than-expected fundamental outlook revitalized reflation hopes and may drive down the demand for non-yielding gold as an investment asset. On the one hand, gold’s strength dominated, pushing higher as digital assets consolidated at lower levels.
Gold prices are trading down 0.1% at Rs 47,743 per 10 grams. Souring risk appetite may buoy the appeal of gold as a perceived safe-haven, cushioning the downside.
Gold futures were up 0.3% at Rs 47,927 per 10 grams.


Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, edged higher by 0.58 per cent to USD 65.78 per barrel. Oil prices are rising on Friday, but end the week with a decline amid mixed signals about near-term demand prospects. As of 09:20 BST, the front month Brent futures contract was trading at $65.50/bbl, just 0.10 higher compared to the previous day s settle. On the other hand, oil found strong resistance above the $64 level and declined to the pivotal $60 area ahead of the OPEC meeting next week.
Similarly, fuel oil stocks showed a big draw of 231,000 mt to 1.51 million mt. Front month WTI saw a similar story as it traded $0.21 higher at $61.91/bbl during the same time period. Front month June WTI futures were up $0.75 at $61.61/bbl, with the other 49-month forward contracts traded between $0.43 and $0.61. Last week saw 231,000 tons of gasoline exported to the US all of which loaded out of the Netherlands. June ICE Brent futures were $0.69 higher at $65.47/bbl, while the rest of the 48-month forward contracts traded between $0.46 and $0.64.
Likewise, gasoline stocks fell by 79,000 mt to 1.18 million mt.

United States

Nasdaq Futures are trading up by 4 points (flat) while Dow Futures are trading up by 18 points (up 0.1%) The rupee is trading at 74.92 against the US$. BEFORE THE BELL Wall Street futures were slightly higher, after the indexes ended lower in the previous session following President Biden s plan to double capital gains tax. US stock futures are trading higher today, indicating a positive opening for Wall Street. Share April 23, 2021 3:43 am ET U.S. stock futures nudged up after Wall Street indexes took a leg lower amid worries about the possibility of higher capital-gains taxes.
Next week there is a crowded economic and event calendar, with the latest Fed decision and the first look at US Q1 GDP the standouts. GBP/USD currently trades around 1.3875 and may look to push higher ahead of the US open and the US PMI release. While stocks slumped on the Bloomberg News report yesterday, Wall Street is reacting relatively calmly to the plan, with many pointing to the likelihood of long negotiations.
Outside of a potential technical move to ensure that the effective fed funds rate remains anchored close to the mid-range (12.5bp), we don’t expect much new from Jay Powell. Any further positive beats in the US next week may put the brakes on any GBP/USD rally. The Fed is deliberately stuck behind the curve and want to see ACTUAL progress, not forecasted progress, on inflation and unemployment.


The matter was discussed on Wednesday at a meeting with EU diplomats, where most EU states supported the legal action, two diplomats told Reuters. AstraZeneca PLC: Launching legal action against AstraZeneca will not help the European Union secure vaccine doses more quickly, German Health Minister Jens Spahn said. An effective spread control is in place via the PEPP, but the ECB is not per se safeguarding a particular nominal level in the yield curve. One of the concerns, as one diplomat explained, is that a lawsuit wouldn’t guarantee that the EU got more doses.
The EU Commission said Thursday that no decision has been made at this point in time regarding AstraZeneca, leaving the door open for a lawsuit in the not-too-distant future.
Many financial pundits pondered whether the ECB could turn hawkish already this week, but Lagarde had very few news on the “significantly increased” PEPP programme in store for us. “Powell has to reiterate the continuation of easy monetary policy just like Lagarde,” said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities. This is probably as important to the ECB as the nominal level of the German curve or the EUR swap curve.
This curve spread control should continue to favour intra-EUR carry plays as the ECB backs up the bet. The EIB, the EU’s funding arm, says it’s working to improve worker well-being, but several lawmakers want an official probe.