Open: New York Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture August 04, 2020



EXPLAINER-Cheaper cocoa may not be a recipe for lower chocolate prices Chocolate fans will not necessarily benefit from predictions of a fall in cocoa prices this year. The volume included 18.3 million tonnes of wheat, 6.9 million tonnes of barley and 448,000 tonnes of peas, the ministry said in a statement. Sugar prices showed a mixed trend on Tuesday on eased local and bulk demand amid enough supply from producing level. Crop Watch producers maintain high expectations for their corn and soybeans, but at least half of the locations are needing some rain to prevent a decline in yield potential.
But chocolate bars will not necessarily get cheaper partly because the price of cocoa is only one ingredient in the mix that makes up the retail price. MARKET NEWS Chicago soybean futures slid for the first time in four sessions, as near-perfect weather across the U.S. Midwest boosted expectations of a bumper harvest. Cocoa futures in New York and London rose sharply on Monday as dealers see a more positive outlook for the chocolate-making raw material.
Two years of trade disputes between the U.S. and China have driven up the cost of consumer electronics, industrial equipment, soybeans, steel and washing machines. After an impressive start in June, India’s monsoon petered out in July, a crucial month for young grain plants and oilseeds such as rice, cotton and soybeans. The Sugar and Bioenergy segment produces sugar and ethanol and generates electricity from burning sugarcane bagasse.


The Australian Dollar is advancing following the central bank’s update, supported in part by the weaker US Dollar. A rebound in the dollar faltered as political wrangling over a U.S. relief plan and the gloomy economic outlook kept investors shy of the currency. FOREX: A dollar rebound faltered as political wrangling over a U.S. relief plan and the gloomy outlook weighed on the currency. The dollar slipped as political wrangling over a U.S. relief plan weighed on the currency.
The U.S. dollar slipped as political wrangling over a U.S. relief plan weighed on the currency. Gene comments on stock, bond, dollar, oil & gold markets, with a particular emphasis on monetary policy, technology issues and S&P intraday action. Bondholders would receive about 54.8 cents on the dollar, close to the midpoint of the most recent offers from creditors and Argentina, people familiar said. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.08 per cent to 93.46.
Further, when the dollar did spike in May, gold’s price dropped sharply, demonstrating that this play can indeed work both ways. The US dollar continues to lose strength in general, although it is a little overdone.


Finally, while investors have yet to be deterred by the high price, the record level is hurting consumer demand for gold, which could be a future headwind. With the high price of gold hurting physical demand, we will have to rely on investors’ continued optimism in order to see even more gains. Looking ahead, I believe there are some fundamental reasons investors will want to stay long gold, such as declining interest rates and vast government spending programs.
less Share Gold prices rose to a record high against a backdrop of high market uncertainty. With this key corner of the market facing headwinds, that should put a limit on how high the price of gold will rise in the months ahead. After a strong move in the first half of the year, gold roared higher in July, despite the stock market climbing as well. As investors bid up the price of gold, the consumer market gets negatively affected. While a difficult economy and Covid-19 uncertainty will encourage investors to hedge their equity or fixed-income positions with gold, the same macro-themes will negatively impact consumer demand.
After review, I continue to see some fundamental reasons why investors will want to use gold as a hedge going forward.
Concurrently, gold has seen its price rise pretty consistently over the past year, highlighting the inverse relationship.


During the world of COVID-19, oil prices collapsed and basically no oil company in the world can make money at $20 / barrel. The company’s 45% stake here means significant low cost oil, oil that’s so high quality it actually sells for several $ / barrel more than Brent. The downside for the company is continued low oil prices, however, the company has significant potential to recover. I will still be maintaining my Bullish rating, since Exxon still offer a way to capitalize on any eventual recovery in oil and gas prices, regardless of the dividend.
At current oil prices, the company will generate respectable cash flow, and with a recovery, that cash flow will increase significantly. Crude oil inventories likely fell 3.3 million bbl while gasoline stocks are estimated to have gone up by 0.6 million bbl. Average daily production tumbled 38.8% to 202,815 barrels of oil equivalent (boe), while prices crashed 78.1% to $7.88 per boe, the company said.
Although they can reduce their costs, the biggest factor that will determine whether they require more debt or not is always going to remain oil and gas prices. The U.S. shale producer on Monday posted a bigger-than-expected second-quarter loss as the coronavirus crisis and related lockdowns pummeled demand for fuel and hammered oil prices. It’s worth noting here that a significant % of investors believe that the company isn’t adequately valuing its inventory for current oil prices.

United States

Executive action President Donald Trump said he may take executive action to impose a moratorium on evictions and enact a payroll tax holiday. Trump May Halt Evictions Amid Virus-Aid Talks Trump could also take executive action to enact a payroll tax holiday. Tim Murtaugh, the campaign’s communications director, said the convention would still be “a celebration of the accomplishments of President Trump on behalf of all Americans”. President Trump said he discussed taking executive action to suspend payroll taxes, a move both parties’ lawmakers have rebuffed.
Trump said he may take executive action to impose a moratorium on evictions and enact a payroll-tax holiday. U.S. stock futures fell as President Donald Trump’s threat to ban TikTok failing a sale of its U.S. operations drew sharp rebuke from China hurting investor sentiment. That along with Trump s insistence that any deal be struck by Sept. 15 drew a strong rebuke from Chinese state media, which called the potential sale theft.
The drama did little to hurt technology stocks: The Nasdaq 100 soared to a fresh record on Monday as traders bought companies poised to outperform in a stay-at-home economy. China Daily warned authorities won’t accept the “theft” of a Chinese tech company, after Donald Trump said ByteDance’s TikTok must sell its U.S. unit or see it shut down. The S&P is also close to marking a new all-time high as it too finished with a doji similar to the Nasdaq on higher volume accumulation.


Peter Martin, Gordana Filipovic and Alan Crawford explain how Serbia s purchase of Chinese-made attack drones underscores Beijing s broadening strategic footprint on NATO s doorstep. Any further worsening of relations between Beijing and London could weigh on the pound. ByteDance is a success story in Beijing s quest for so-called cyber-sovereignty.


EU 2020/21 barley exports had reached 254,305 tonnes, down 60% from 2019/20, while EU 2020/21 maize imports stood at 1.01 million tonnes, down by 52%. A new document warns that Brexit will bring up to 10 months of disruption, with emergency traffic control measures in Kent to last until “the end of October 2021”. Chicks exported to the EU will die unless they can be rushed through the chaos expected at UK ports next year, the government has admitted. Grocery list | Extra paperwork required by Brexit will raise U.K. supermarkets cost of operating in Northern Ireland so much that some may pull out, a trade group warned.
German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas regretted the planned withdrawal, describing Berlin’s relationship with the Washington as “complicated.” Chancellor Angela Merkel was reportedly shocked.
The United States quarterly GDP fall, at -9.5%, is small compared to Germany’s -10.1%, France -13.8%, Italy -12.4%, Spain -18.5% and the European Union 27 at -11.9%.