Open: New York Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture August 25, 2020

A member of the National Guard plays a trumpet during a flag rai


Corn experienced the biggest decline, with just 64% of the crop rated good to excellent, a 5 percentage point fall from last week and 3% lower than analyst expectations. Soybeans soared following the previous week’s release of what would typically be an extremely bearish USDA world agricultural supply and demand (WASDE) report. Data Source: Reuters/Datastream We believe soybeans’ ability to surge despite USDA estimates of higher stockpiles (and expectations of a new crop just short of a new record) is impressive.
Crop Watch corn and soybeans declined after another mostly dry week. COLUMN-Crop Watch: Dry weather clips crop yields again; Iowa corn still messy -Braun Yield expectations for the U.S. Overall, ear numbers per acre and soybean pod numbers are the two most important crop factors in measuring the potential yield. Looking at corn’s (CORN) main yield component across the PF tour, 2020’s ear counts were down in 6 of the 7 states vs. 2018.
Real “bargains” will need to be found elsewhere – in lagging agricultural markets like, sugar, corn, coffee and, yes, soybeans. With dryness impacting seed size and pod numbers, Pro Farmer projected 52.5 US yield and 4.36 billion bu soybean crop. It is getting late for improvements to corn, but soybeans could still be fortified with additional rainfall over the next couple of weeks.


Dollar index The dollar index was mostly flat yesterday and was trading around the 21-day moving average around 93.15. A shift toward allowing higher inflation – which some market participants expect – would mean lower interest rates for longer and a weaker dollar. Gold prices slipped as a rise in risk sentiment offset support for the metal from a weaker dollar. Gold prices slipped as a rise in risk sentiment offset support for the metal from a weaker U.S. dollar.
That shift implies keeping interest rates lower for longer and thus weighing on the dollar. A decline in the dollar index is positive for the rupee.Trade strategy The rupee has begun today’s session on the front foot with a gap-up open. Even more powerful weak dollar policies today could result in a similar scenario for many of the same commodities. Agricultural commodities could mimic metals and soar – especially if the current downward trickle of the dollar turns into a torrent, lifting all boats in the process.
While the currency pair is rising amid dollar weakness, it is lagging behind peers such as the euro. Markets like that, pushing stocks higher and the safe-haven dollar lower.


“To elaborate, Indians hold the largest stock of gold in the world, 25,000 tonnes of which is held by households (including temples) as per the World Gold Council estimates. While many investors look for the gold:silver ratio to converge toward its long-term average, in reality, the ratio swings significantly away from this average. The ratio has been at extremely elevated levels in recent years, highlighting silver’s low valuation relative to gold for an extended period of time.
Since then, silver has had several bull markets in which prices have increased—or as some silver aficionados may argue, the relative value of fiat currency has decreased. With gold prices scaling new highs, it is yet to be seen if gold will again become the preferred investment product. Today’s infographic comes to us from New Pacific Metals and it takes a look at the bull markets in silver prices and the future of silver. >> Fabrice Drouin Ristori on Twitter is an independent investment analyst and studies the gold and silver market and their future role in the international monetary system.
He follows regularly since 1970 the gold, silver and foreign exchange markets.
The long-term daily gold:silver average ratio stands at 65. We expect other commodities will put on their rally caps and join gold and silver, should the current drop in the battered buck continue.


The cost cuts are the latest by oil and gas producers as oil demand and prices have plunged due to the COVID-19 pandemic. After cutting crude oil production, refineries have also started taking precautionary measures and are cutting production. Producers have shut more than 1.5 million barrels per day of Gulf Coast offshore oil production, nearly 14% of the nation’s total output. BEFORE THE BELL Futures for Canadian main stock index rose, following gains in oil prices after Tropical Storms Marco and Laura forced deep U.S. production cuts.
Oil fluctuated as one of two storm fronts menacing crude production in the U.S. was downgraded. The two U.S. shale oil producers are planning to trim staff in coming days, people familiar with the matter said on Monday, after each posted large second-quarter losses. The system’s onset has already shut 82% of oil and 57% of natural gas production in the Gulf. The LNA and allied oil guards last week said they would allow limited fuel shipments from ports to restock power stations.
EOG relies heavily on crude oil, which represents of the total production. Oil advanced after Tropical Storms Marco and Laura forced deep U.S. production cuts.

United States

“The Nasdaq has broken the record 16 times already…but Biden, he said he’d shut it down,” Trump said. By keeping rates low, the Fed is pricing people out of one market and forcing them into another and this is a perfect example of that,” Harrison said. Cohen triggered the probe after he handed Congress a series of Trump financial records from 2011 to 2013, New York said in a filing in state court in Manhattan. Some analysts and political commentators have said that a recovering economy could be Mr Trump’s only path to victory in November.
“This is the most important election in the history of our country,” Trump said. That comes as the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) denied delaying a vaccine as part of a deep state conspiracy against the president. President Donald Trump – who bashed China over everything from coronavirus to tech – in the first night of the Republican convention. First lady Melania Trump and Secretary of State Michael Pompeo will be among the high-profile speakers on the second day of the Republican National Convention.
Other speakers on the slate from last night included the President’s son Donald Trump Jr., one of his most popular surrogates. Five Things You Need to Know The Republican National Convention invoked fear in an opening day geared to President Trump’s base.


They touched on intellectual property and access issues, with neither side expressing dissatisfaction, even as Beijing falls behind in meeting its promises to increase purchases of U.S. goods. Both sides agreed to create conditions to push the deal forward, China’s Ministry of Commerce said in a separate statement Tuesday morning in Beijing. China s Ministry of Commerce confirmed in a statement Tuesday morning in Beijing that both sides agreed to create conditions to push the deal forward.
China Mengniu Dairy scrapped plans to buy Kirin Holdings s Australian beverage unit after being told the deal would likely be blocked amid strained relations between Canberra and Beijing.
Still, the failed deal may be a blessing for Beijing, given the pandemic is ravaging many of the businesses that other Chinese firms snapped up in the past.


Downing Street has been forced to deny claims that Boris Johnson could quit as prime minister within six months because of ongoing health problems due to coronavirus. It will provide financial assistance, in the form of loans granted from the EU to Member States, of up to EUR100 billion in total. On Monday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson made a direct appeal to parents to return their children to the classroom when schools reopen next week. The new goal “isn’t unique,” the Finance Ministry said in a statement, citing an average target of 9% of GDP for EU members.
In order to address the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, the European Union created SURE unemployment insurance scheme and the EU Recovery Fund. At the same time, the EU bonds are completely backed up by the payments of those countries if necessary. According to the EU officials, bond issuance will begin in late September and end by June 2021. The EU Recovery Fund is worth EUR750 billion in total.
Secondly, the misguided policies of the ECB (OMT, negative interest rates and QE) led to the deterioration of the profitability of the European banking sector. The pandemic threatens EU plans to tax dirty imports.