Open: New York Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture December 09, 2020



Raw sugar futures on ICE closed down on Tuesday as funds continue to reduce their long position and the market consolidates lower on lack of fresh fundamentals.


Bets that Covid-19 vaccines will propel the global economic recovery next year have prompted investors to buy assets outside the U.S., pushing the dollar lower in recent weeks. The Euro is already up 14% this year and is likely to strengthen considerably in 2021 as the dollar falls rapidly. After a 12 year correction, the Euro is now breaking out on the upside against the dollar and looks very bullish. The euro against the dollar is the commodity with the biggest trading volume in the world at $1.5 trillion a day.
Gene comments on stock, bond, dollar, oil & gold markets, with a particular emphasis on monetary policy, technology issues and S&P intraday action. It is the first move by the Trump administration since Election Day, and comes a week after Democrat leaders in Congress dropped their demands for a multi-trillion dollar package. He said the stimulus package would weaken the U.S. dollar and create more liquidity that will benefit the bullion.
This will not only put enormous pressure on the financial system, but will also be reflected in a collapsing dollar. Hence, the dollar index is likely to resume the downtrend and a decline is positive for the Indian currency. A dearer euro pushes prices of imported goods lower and also weakens the currency bloc’s economies by making exports less competitive.


MARKET NEWS Gold prices slipped from a two-week peak as encouraging coronavirus vaccine developments pushed investors toward riskier equities, with global shares rising to a record high. Gold stock enthusiasts who bought metals and miners at my key $1788 buy zone for gold are looking very good. In international markets, gold prices eased today as encouraging vaccine developments pushed investors towards riskier equities. Even with the recent volatility in prices, gold remains among the best-performing commodities this year to combat the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.
The Gold Analyst offers quality technical and fundamental analysis of the price of gold to help educate readers in their investment decisions. On Wednesday, the prices of gold slipped as positive developments on the COVID-19 vaccine buoyed Asian equities to record highs and sent investors towards riskier assets. Tracking global cues, gold prices also fell in Indian markets as equity markets rallied across the world amid Covid vaccine optimism.
Later on in 2008, he began researching areas of the gold and silver market that, curiously, the majority of the precious metal analyst community have left unexplored. 9, 2020 6:14 AM ET|| About: Revival Gold Inc. (RVLGF)by: SA TranscriptsThe following slide deck was published by Revival Gold Inc. in conjunction with this event. Gold (and silver) has now completed the correction since August and is about to resume its 20 year uptrend.


An industry body in the US forecasted crude oil inventories to have risen by 1.14 million bbl against a Reuters poll forecast for a draw of 1.42 million bbl. Demand for drilling services sank after oil prices collapsed earlier this year, pushing several oilfield services firms to file for bankruptcy, incur heavy losses and cut jobs. Gasoline stocks were forecasted to have gone up by 6.44 million bbl compared to analyst estimates of a build of 2.93 million bbl in the poll.
Canadian oil companies are restoring production they had to shut-in to counter a steep price drop this year as the COVID-19 pandemic hammered fuel demand. Access the fuel oil report here (link to be pasted on Eikon search) You can access the full report here. Malaysian palm oil futures slipped for a third straight session as concerns grew over demand and Dalian soyoil fell, although worries about declining output limited losses. U.S. crude stocks rose by 1.14 million barrels in the week to December 4 to about 493 million barrels, data from an industry body showed.
The weekly EIA crude oil inventories report is in the spotlight, with baseline forecasts pointing to a narrow 849.3k-barrel drawdown.
Negative RSI divergence suggests upward momentum may be fading, which may set the stage for a pullback in crude oil prices. Progress in vaccines development outweighed concerns over an unexpected jump in U.S. crude oil inventories.

United States

The pandemic seems likely to get worse before it gets better, but expectations for fourth-quarter GDP in the US continue to reflect moderate growth. While some worry about inflation from the sharp economic resurgence juiced by so much artificial stimulus, inflation remains far below the Fed’s target. The stock market Bulls require being fed ever more positive news to keep charging higher and this Bull has been well fed. If the Fed is expected to hike rates more frequently because growth is super strong, then there’s no particular reason to think that’s a bad condition for stocks.
This particular ship is already loaded with $80 trillion total US debt of which the government has issued $27 trillion and the Fed printed $7 trillion. That means revenue and profits.But in theory the Fed could hike rates if inflation is seen as getting out of hand. The yield on a bond reflects the expected Fed policy path in the years ahead. On the U.S. stimulus package, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin presented Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi with a $916 billion economic rescue package.
US stock futures are trading higher today, indicating a positive opening for Wall Street indices. I don’t believe that anyone back in 2017 forecasted that US debt would be $28t in January 2021, at the end of Trump’s four years.


Its maritime lane takes in ports across South Asia and beyond.Beijing has already done a lot of work binding other countries to its economic orbit. That’s why Beijing floated the idea of raising the retirement age in the outline of its next five-year economic plan released last month. This summer, Beijing tripled consumers’ duty-free allowance and opened domestic duty-free stores where the quota can be spent up to six months after a trip. For Australia s government, though, it has become a matter of principle over trade.In contrast, Beijing is offering a lifeline to the cash-strapped Iraqi administration.


If it goes badly, officials on both sides fear the chances of a deal being ready before the end of December when the Brexit transition period ends will fade. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is due to have dinner with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen later on Wednesday. By now, I have built up excellent skills and experience in analyzing macroeconomic and political developments in Europe, the Eurozone and Germany, including ECB watching. Main focus: Europe, Eurozone, Germany and ECB.