Open: New York Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture December 23, 2020

A member of the National Guard plays a trumpet during a flag rai


New Dehli agreed last week to subsidise up to 6 million tonnes of sugar exports this season to try to cut surplus stocks and support local prices.


Greer also said that a weaker dollar directly speaks to commodities rallying, and he thinks those markets are signaling that there is commodity inflation going on. The net investment yesterday was recorded at ₹1,153 crore (equity and debt combined) and this largely helped the rupee to stay afloat against the dollar despite bearish opening. A fall from here means a weak dollar that can be positive for the rupee.Trade strategyThe rupee has opened today’s session marginally lower at 73.89.
However, it has an immediate support at 74, which works well for INR longs given the risk-reward ratio; also, the dollar index looks weak for the day. Gene comments on stock, bond, dollar, oil & gold markets, with a particular emphasis on monetary policy, technology issues and S&P intraday action. The dollar bounced earlier this week, which maybe put the risk appetite on its heels, but the tape is taking it in stride, he said. • US Dollar is trending lower despite Trump raising doubts over whether he will sign the COVID rescue package agreed by Congress.
Greer also discussed the connection between the dollar and U.S. equity markets and why that relationship matters during the interview. less Recovering from the day’s low of 73.96, the rupee (INR) ended Tuesday’s session at 73.84 against the dollar (USD). The Dollar has been the sacrificial lamb throughout this recovery in risk-assets and Bill shares the levels you need to be watching going forward.


The streaming transaction would involve “a significant up-front payment” to Oyu Tolgoi, as well as deferred payments based on gold “spot” prices, Turquoise Hill said. In domestic markets, gold prices slipped today tracking a muted trend seen in international spot prices. Its products include components and machinery, steel infrastructure, furniture, and fabricated components, and many other products. Gold prices are trading down by 0.3% at Rs 49,955 per 10 grams.
In early trades, February gold contracts traded lower by 0.1% on the MCX, at Rs 50,050 per 10 grams. Note that even though gold has recovered from lows of below Rs 48,000, it remains significantly lower than the August highs of Rs 56,200. In the video below, Vijay shares the reason behind the recent rally in silver prices and how you can profit from this opportunity. Speaking of the stock markets, India’s #1 trader, Vijay Bhambwani talks about a new all-time high for silver, in his latest video for Fast Profits Daily.
less A lot of investors continue to hear that the silver market is manipulated. Fortunately, John Lee of SilverElephant joined me on the show to answer that question, and he also shared what he expects for silver in 2021.


An industry body in the USA forecasted a build in crude oil inventories, estimating the stocks to have gone up by 2.7 million bbl. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell 1.44 per cent to $49.36 per barrel. With current WTI crude oil prices at nearly $50 / barrel, the NPV of the asset will be able to generate strong cash flow. The disruption in Miri and Cendor crude supplies reduced Malaysia’s oil exports this month and supported spot prices in the region.
Malaysian palm oil futures reversed course to edge higher as fears of a potential supply crunch and gains in rival soyoil helped offset pressure from higher export taxes. ConocoPhillips with Concho Resources – ConocoPhillips Investor Presentation The combined company will have unconventional production of 430 thousand barrels / day, a near doubling in unconventional oil production. China’s bid to establish global benchmark for palm oil futures seen an uphill battle China, the world’s No.
On the sectoral front, barring the oil & gas sector, all sectors are trading in green with stocks from the real estate sector witnessing most of the buying interest.
I’ve written in the past about how most investors are underestimating the probability of a sharp snap back in oil prices after the Covid-19 crisis clears. Access the fuel oil report here (link to be pasted on Eikon search) You can access the full report here.

United States

Nor was the House of Representatives and Senate backed US stimulus bill of $900 billion, given that Donald Trump has expressed dissatisfaction and may not sign the bill. After a Fed meeting last week and heading into the holiday markets, Greer said the stimulus bill is probably going to mean very little. If this results in further debate and a delay in the stimulus package, we will most likely see more volatility in the US equities market in the coming days.
The US Fed’s target rate for the federal funds rate is currently 0.13%, whereas the equivalent ECB deposit rate is -0.50%, and the BOJ rate is -0.06. Markets mixed Investor reaction to the possibility that Trump may derail the stimulus package has been fairly muted so far as traders look forward to a few days off. A USD 900bn stimulus bill was concluded on Sunday by the US Congress including direct transfers of USD 600 to most adults and an additional USD 600 per child. Fixed income investors have been ahead of this for years, exhibiting greater accuracy about Fed policy than the FOMC itself (see Bond Market Looks Past Fed).
At the end of the year’s last FOMC meeting last Wednesday, the Fed raised its 2021 real GDP forecast from four percent to 4.2 percent. Weighting the US, eurozone, UK and Japan PMIs together, for example, creates a “G4 developed world” series of indicators, covering output, new orders, employment, inflation, etc. In contrast to the tightening of COVID-19 restrictions seen in the US, eurozone containment levels were eased slightly, though they remained severe in some member states.


Europe, in particular, was facing unique challenges, including keeping the bloc together amid rising populism, uneven economic growth, troubled banking systems, Brexit, and more. The pandemic recession insured these virtually zero interest rate targets, though the ECB and the BoJ were actually there even before the pandemic. Boris Johnson may extend the tightest lockdown to more areas of England, while even countries that thought they had the virus under control are seeing fresh outbreaks.
Sterling was also under pressure again due to the combination of a mutated virus and no news on the Brexit front. No white smoke from the Brexit negotiations, “fishy” political incentives in the negotiation room and also in the vaccine deals. There was some better news for U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson with the announcement that French authorities would allow sea and rail connections with Britain to reopen. According to Der Spiegel, the EU allegedly rejected an offer to buy another 200m vaccines from BioNTech (Germany) to ensure that Sanofi (France) got a similar-sized order.
Individually, Europe may also experience headwinds in the form of the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union, as the Brexit transition has still not been resolved. Service sector activity stabilised, but it was the manufacturing sector that saw the strongest performance, benefitting in part from a pre-Brexit stockpiling boost. British stocks have been at the center of a risk-off move starting late last week as Brexit concerns resume.