Open: New York Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture December 29, 2020



Top five in terms of biggest bullish bets being WTI & Brent crude oil(617k), corn (266k), natural gas (252k), sugar (190k), soybeans (189k) and gold (137k). Mish on Coffee and Sugar Exchange less The PUA and PEUC programs both expired on December 26.


Dollar index The US Dollar currency index, commonly known as the Dollar index started the session on weak note, opening at 90.20 against the previous close of 90.33 levels. Trade strategy The rupee has started the session on front foot and is likely to appreciate backed by weakness in the dollar index. Gene comments on stock, bond, dollar, oil & gold markets, with a particular emphasis on monetary policy, technology issues and S&P intraday action. Having its own history with government crackdowns would also likely make Microsoft think twice before spending top dollar to take out a competitor.
*Oppenheimer Asset Mgmanalyst John Stoltzfus noted that non-US stocks have paid off for US investors as the dollar lost traction this year. The rupee had appreciated to 73.3 against the dollar and the day’s range is 73.49 and 73.30.


For the gold mining industry, however, the malinvestment occurs during the economy’s bust phase, because the boom for gold mining coincides with the bust for the broad economy. Amid mixed global cues, gold prices in India traded in a narrow range for the sixth day. In global markets, gold prices were slightly higher after US President Donald Trump approved a stimulus package. That, in essence, is why the demand for gold tends to rise during the bust phase of the economy-wide boom-bust cycle.
The contract has risen 35% this year, putting it ahead of gold as one of the best commodity-linked assets. Gold prices are trading down by 0.1% at Rs 49,965 per 10 grams. less Gold mining is — to use technical jargon — a crappy business. However, corporations and high-net-worth individuals often prefer other forms of ‘liquidity’, including Treasury Bills and gold. Note that in the previous five sessions, gold has remained in the Rs 50,000 to Rs 50,500 range.
On MCX, February gold futures were up 0.1% to Rs 50,067 per 10 grams.


Gasoline inventories are anticipated to have risen by 1.8 million bbl thanks to an expected refinery utilisation increase of 0.5 percentage points. According to Refinitiv Oil Research, US crude imports are expected to have fallen by 8% w-o-w to 5.09 million bpd in the week ending the 25th of December. Refinitiv Oil Research uses their ship tracking data to identify all ships calling the port to track and identify operations in the port to determine change in weekly inventory.
The front month Brent futures contract was trading at $51.28/bbl as of 0900 GMT, up by 0.83% compared to the previous day s settlement. PADD II is likely to have received 3% less imports at 2.46 million bpd (see US Weekly Crude Imports Report). The front month WTI futures contract was at $47.95/bbl, up by 0.69% against settlement price. As far as oil supply is concerned, OPEC+ representatives are expected to discuss their future production strategy on the 4th of January. Front month February WTI futures were down $0.23 at $48.15/bbl, with the other 49-month forward contracts traded between -$0.23 and -$0.03.
February ICE Brent futures were $0.04 higher at $51.44/bbl, while the rest of the 48-month forward contracts traded between -$0.22 and $0.01. This was mainly due to a large, 15-million-barrel build in stockpiles in the first week of December.

United States

US stock futures are trading higher today, indicating a positive opening for Wall Street indices. US stock futures are trading higher today, indicating a positive start for Wall Street indices. Some Senate Republicans bucked their own Majority Leader and joined with radical leftist Bernie Sanders and President Trump to form an odd coalition pushing for larger stimulus checks. Nasdaq Futures are trading up by 45 points (up 0.5%) while Dow Futures are trading up by 170 points (up 0.6%).
Nasdaq Futures are trading up by 54 points (up 0.4%), while Dow Futures are trading up by 159 points (up 0.5%).
Interestingly enough, yet another (minor) sell-off hit the UST market’s longer ends just this morning – on information that President Trump won’t veto the bill after all. His market analysis can also be read in most major financial publications, including the Wall Street Journal. That changed later in the day when Under Bipartisan Pressure Trump Signed the Bill. less Image Source: Unsplash Wall Street is universally bullish on the economy and stock market for 2021. Qualtrics intends to list its common stock on the Nasdaq under the symbol “XM.” The offering is expected to close sometime in January.


Similarly, a Brexit deal between the UK and the EU is expected to lend support to key financial markets by removing some uncertainty. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to win by a large majority when Members of Parliament vote this week to ratify the text. Also the underwhelming Brexit reaction raising worries about Sterling and hedge funds positioning themselves for further commodity upside in 2021.