Open: New York Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture February 02, 2021



Ukrainian wheat exports totalled 13 million tonnes as of Feb. 1, down almost 2.9 million tonne from the same date a season ago, the data showed. This increases pressure on new-crop supplies and this year s U.S. harvest, where soybean acres will be battling against those of corn as farmers weigh the profitability potential. Ivory Coast, the world s top cocoa producer, is in the dry season, which runs from mid-November to March, when rainfall is limited.


Dollar indexThe dollar index rallied last session and closed at 90.98, falling short of breaching the key resistance at 91.00. US Dollar trades around 7 week high although steps towards bypassing Republicans over Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus could keep US under pressure. All the assets that act as a safe-haven from the US dollar meltdown are taking their turn to hammer the US Dollar. Silver failed to break the August high and trades lower overnight after the CME raised margins, the dollar trades stronger and after was left unimpressed by the latest surge.
The dollar hovered near a seven-week high, benefiting from a euro selloff overnight after coronavirus lockdowns choked consumer spending in Germany, and on short-covering in the over-crowded dollar-selling positions. FOREX: The euro struggled at seven-week lows against the U.S. dollar as concerns about extended lockdowns dampened sentiment towards the single currency. In FX, we note the odd strength in the US dollar, given the backdrop and look at risks to long dated safe haven bonds if yields continue to rise.
less The rupee (INR) closed Monday’s session marginally lower — ended at 73.02 versus previous close of 72.95 against the dollar (USD). The euro is unable to take advantage of the dollar’s weakness, and that could be a sign of things to come. Bitcoin has been hammering the US dollar since the last quarter of 2020, rising from around $12 000 to a high of about $41 000.


The government also reduced import duty on gold dore and silver dore, non-refined mined gold or silver. Hubert is an independent gold and silver analyst who specializes in fractal analysis and the fundamentals of gold and silver . … more Hubert is an independent gold and silver analyst who specializes in fractal analysis and the fundamentals of gold and silver . Silver prices extended their rally on Monday to an eight-year high as small investors answered calls on social media last week to buy the metal to push up prices.
In the international market, gold traded lower at USD 1,847 per ounce, and silver also dipped to USD 27.50 per ounce. Gold prices had plunged 1.2% or Rs 627 per 10 gram in the previous session while silver had surged 6% or Rs 4238 per kg. Let’s get this out of the way before we’re accused of being silver bears: we’ve been bullish on the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) for months. Bitcoins seem to have followed the path (following silver) as expected, and the baton has likely been handed to silver.
Gold and silver prices fell despite yields on US 10-year Treasuries dipping 1 basis point lower. Retail investors cannot directly access the wholesale silver market, so instead they have bought into bars and coins.


Learn more about forex Oil (OIL) prices are on the rise after major producers showed that they were cutting crude output adhering to commitments on restraints. The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (OIL) market pulled back a bit during the beginning of the session on Monday but then shot straight up in the air. Lifting of the sanctions would legitimise Iranian crude oil exports and could rapidly increase supply in the market. As consumer awareness increases around climate change and demand shifts away from the oil and gas industry, the demand for EVs grows immensely.
To view the full Middle East crude oil report click here (link to be pasted in Eikon search) You can access the full report here. Falling US crude inventories and the vaccination programs also supported oil prices. It is aiming to ramp up renewable power generation to 50 gigawatts (GW) by 2030 from 3.3 GW currently, while slashing oil output to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Electricity outages in Kazakhstan resulted in the country s oil production falling 2% in January, improving the compliance to OPEC+ cuts.
The Norway wealth fund dumped oil stocks amid a $10 billion loss on fossil fuel holdings in 2020.
Crude’s futures curve kept strengthening, suggesting the large stockpiles built up last year are shrinking fast and will continue to do so.

United States

But Schoen told the Washington Post on Sunday he would not make fraud arguments, and a former colleague said he couldn’t see Castor touching Trump’s “preposterous” claims either. In what amounted to a test vote, only five Republican senators voted with Democrats last week to block an effort to declare Trump’s impeachment trial unconstitutional. It’s likely Trump turned to the Alabama solo practitioner based on his work last year on behalf of the former president’s longtime ally Roger Stone.
Save America, a leadership PAC Trump launched a week after the election, took in $30.9 million between Nov. 24 and the end of the year. Democrats impeached Trump a week later, charging him with inciting insurrection, and his trial will begin in the Senate next week. After four years of turmoil under Trump, it’s time for both sides to take a moment and reflect,” said Zhu Feng, professor of international relations at Nanjing University. Last week, Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida, who has closely aligned himself with Trump, went to Cheney’s home state of Wyoming for a rally denouncing her.
The RNC took in $45.3 million, including the transfers from Trump Make America Great Again, and ended the year with $80.5 million in cash on hand. Trump’s legal briefs are supposed to be delivered next week, and the trial is set to begin Feb. 9. Under former President Donald Trump, the U.S. lost a lot of leverage for its blasé attitude on rights and democratic backsliding.


Jack Ma was absent from a list of China s entrepreneurial greats published by state media, underscoring how far the Alibaba co-founder has run afoul of Beijing. In June, Vucic drew condemnation from pro-EU politicians for kissing the Chinese flag when an airplane delivered medical gear from Beijing to Belgrade. Chinese President Xi Jinping has a vested interest in dozens of infrastructure projects key to his regional Belt and Road ambitions. “These are the issues that U.S. will definitely touch,” Shi Yinhong, director of Renmin University’s Center on American Studies in Beijing.


Chancellor Angela Merkel vowed to offer all Germans a vaccine by the end of September, even if new shots aren’t approved. “That has eclipsed last week’s bearishness over the EU’s vaccine troubles.”PricesOPEC may be adding less supply into the market than expected. Bayer’s production effort extends its current pact with CureVac — a German startup that got investment from Merkel’s government last year — on regulatory clearance and global distribution. Serbia’s goal is to join the EU, though with an electorate already divided over membership, the pandemic risks pushing the country into the orbit of rival powers.
Already, the Serbian approach has its followers within the EU: neighboring Hungary became the first member of the bloc to approve shots made by Russia and China. “I would have wished that France, Europe could have been more present on your side on the topic of vaccines,” Macron told Vucic and a group of reporters. There is a perception of China being more prepared to help than the EU, said Faris Kocan, a foreign policy researcher at the University of Ljubljana.
The ECB has not been particularly aggressive in its bond purchases lately, and seems happy about the current levels of bond yields and spreads. Serbia is an important bridge for China to Europe, is a traditional ally of Russia and is aspiring to join the EU. Feeling that it wasn’t fair that AstraZeneca could keep supplying the Brits while slowing down the EU’s rollout, Brussels contemplated export controls.