Open: New York Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture February 19, 2021



For instance, cocoa processors are not expecting a revival in demand this year as the virus pandemic suppresses air travel and consumer spending around the world, according to Bloomberg. Cocoa Association of Asia said chocolate demand could increase in the second half of the year as travel restrictions are lifted if vaccine roll-outs are successful. “Several market participants, as well as the yearly Euronext Matif survey, demonstrated that the liquidity and usefulness of the January corn expiry are open to discussion,” it said.
January was generally favourable for the new winter wheat crop but February weather is not,” it said. 3 corn and soybean exporter, but last month s rainfall had some estimates on the uptrend. We’ve outlined before concerns about a demand collapse in cocoa markets due to the virus pandemic. Raw sugar futures on ICE hit their highest in nearly four years on Thursday, buoyed by nearby supply tightness and rising energy prices.
Source: Bloomberg Cocoa-ICCO’s daily pricing in dollars per metric ton shows prices remain under 2019 levels and range bound since COVID lockdowns. Over two decades ago Jay got his start at the Kansas City Board of Trade in the Wheat Futures pit. “Russia could produce a substantially lower wheat crop in 2021.


The U.S. dollar paused after its biggest loss in 10 days as disappointing U.S. labour market data bruised optimism for a speedy recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. The global benchmark is already at around 1.30% and a move toward 1.50% would make the dollar more attractive and boost the greenback. Gold may be also vulnerable if risk aversion picks up pace and drives up demand for the US Dollar. If US data is rosy, it could cause to rise and boost the dollar.
The dollar is terrible at holding its value, and they’d rather that people not be aware of this once-common bit of knowledge. Still, the jump in core inflation, no matter the underlying explanation, has likely contributed to the rising rates also in the Euro area. However, if the statistics are only cautiously optimistic, it would lift sentiment while allowing the safe-haven dollar to decline. The recent rise in bond yields has so far NOT been enough to turn the tide on already easy financial conditions in neither the US nor the Euro area.
That is party due to rising longer-term Treasury rates and a stabilizing US Dollar. The dollar value for every ton of CO avoided is the SCC.


Indian steel pricesThe rise in global iron ore prices come on the heels of a correction in Indian steel prices. Indian steel prices increased 55 per cent between June and December last year. According to Australia’s commodity research unit ABARE, iron ore prices will likely ease to $80 a tonne by the end of the year and further to $75 in 2022. website, quoting Fastmarkets MB, said that benchmark 62 per cent iron ore fines shipped into Northern China were traded at $175.05 a tonne cost and freight on Thursday.
“But iron ore and coal are two major raw materials for the steel sectors. A 25% surge in gold prices last year, supported by unprecedented stimulus measures, has offered miners a lifeline following production disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic. An industry official, who did not wish to be identified, said the steel price movement was arrested after a hue and cry was raised over the spikes last year. His primary concern was that steel prices had been raised four times during October-December quarter and it could result in infrastructure project costs rising.
There will be some impact of the surge in Indian steel prices,” the official said.
“Steel prices had increased from ₹32,000 a tonne to ₹55,000 between June and December.


For markets, the restarting of the region’s oil production capacity is coming as a relief, with oil executives saying most of the lost output would be restored within days. Meanwhile, the global oil benchmark Brent crude was trading 1.24 per cent lower at USD 63.14 per barrel. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University less Crude oil prices weakened over the past 24 hours after WTI spent most of this month rallying over 18 percent. Fears of oversupply are also being accentuated by the prospects of OPEC+ producers boosting their production due to a rapid recovery in oil prices.
Since 2014, 5y5y inflation expectations have topped and troughed almost exactly during the months of topping or troughing base effects from oil prices. In April, judging by oil prices … There are reasons to be more structurally upbeat on inflation this time around compared to earlier reflationary cycles. It will take several days for oilfield crews to deice valves, restart systems and begin oil and gas production.
Malaysian palm oil futures extended early gains, paring losses from a sharp fall in the previous session, on bargain buying and strength in rival soyoil. There is growing concern that the refineries might take longer to restart than oil output, which could lead to stock builds. Fuel oil stocks also showed a drop of 19,000 mt to 1.66 million mt.

United States

Keeping financial conditions benign is a key target for both the Fed and the ECB, which was further emphasised in the meeting minutes from both central banks this week. At the current pace, the Fed is on pace to owning $7.62 trillion in MBSs and treasury notes and bonds by year-end (box), up from the current $6.27 trillion. Since March the US stock market, fuelled by aggressive monetary and fiscal easing, has shot to new all-time highs. )This has only intensified the handwringing about an inflationary surge, premature Fed tightening and a potential stock market rout.
Since leaving Wall Street I’ve dedicated my financial career towards studying this situation and helping people understand what’s actually happening. To begin with, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported yesterday that US import prices were up on annual basis for the first time in some time. The Nasdaq Composite tumbled 0.7 per cent.Also Friday, a preliminary version of Japan’s monthly purchasing managers’ index for manufacturing rose to its highest level in just over two years.
Further hindering energy prices was a report that the US would agree to meet with Iran to start talks about returning to the 2015 Nuclear Deal. The Biden administration said it would be willing to meet with Iran to find a way to return to the nuclear deal which was abandoned by President Donald Trump. Traders have ramped up some pretty remarkable positioning for a Fed liftoff (aka the first interest-rate hike) as the reality of more-generous government stimulus has sunk in.


After Jack Ma criticized Chinese regulators, Beijing scuttled the initial public offering of his fintech giant Ant and he largely disappeared from public view.


ECB is said to weigh disclosing climate risk in bond programs. In the U.K., supply-chain problems due to Brexit helped push factory activity to the weakest level in nine months. ECB considers disclosing climate risks in its bond programs. Britain’s financial sector no longer has unfettered access to the European Union after it left the EU single market on Dec. 31. The trade deal agreed with the EU does not cover financial services. “There’d be a soft-Brexit scenario or a fast-Covid-recovery scenario,” Mr. Monk said.
All eyes are now on Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his highly-anticipated reopening speech on Monday.