Open: New York Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture February 22, 2021

A member of the National Guard plays a trumpet during a flag rai


Strong corn (CORN) & beans (SOYB) prices prompted the USDA to slice 825,000 N Plains spring wheat (WEAT) seedings limiting US wheat area to 45 million for 21/22. from corn’s previous fall Baseline supplies US domestic demand was shuffled, but the USDA upped corn’s 21/22 exports by 325 million bu, given China’s current strong demand. Ukraine wheat export prices flat over past week Ukrainian soft milling wheat export prices remained almost unchanged over the past week, APK-Inform agriculture consultancy said on Monday.
The USDA’s corn forecast was 900,000 acres less than the trade at 92 million while soybeans were 600,000 higher than the trade’ survey at 90 million acres. This spring’s US cotton plantings could remain at 12 million acres, while the US rice area could drop to 2.7 million, off 336,000. In corn, the USDA’s 2021/22 balance sheet had a larger crop size, but this year’s smaller carryover & 1 bu lower trend yield (179.5) cut 405 million bu.
Even with a 50 million cut in exports, soybean’s carryover will only grow 25 million bu by 2022 according to the USDA. Overall, corn’s 21/22 ending stocks outlook is only 50 million higher at 1.552 billion bu. Their all-wheat US plantings were half a million lower than trade ideas at 45 million. The DC analysts upped 2021’s US corn & soybean areas while shaving wheat plantings from their fall Baselines levels.


MARKET NEWS Gold prices gained after hitting a more than seven-month low in the previous session, as support from a weaker dollar eclipsed pressure from firmer Treasury yields. US Dollar weakness over the last two sessions offered gold prices some relief after a heavy selloff observed earlier last week. While the US dollar is expected to weaken, the rise in US Treasury yields makes the greenback slightly more attractive against other lower-yielding currencies (FXB).
Dollar net short positioning fell last week to $29.09 billion, which is the lowest level since mid-December, according to calculations by Reuters and Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.04 per cent to 90.32. less Gold prices edged slightly higher during APAC session on Monday as the US Dollar (DXY) index traded steadily near the 50-Day Moving Average line. “Commodity currencies and the pound are particularly strong against the dollar, and this trend looks set to continue,” said Yukio Ishizuki, foreign exchange strategist at Daiwa Securities.
The medical debate has been raging on and so has the economic one – too many economic boosts may cause overheating, and this battle is tearing the dollar apart. If he reiterates the bank’s willingness to do more and opens the door to expanded bond-buying, yields could fall and the dollar could rise. US dollar net shorts have fallen for four straight weeks, which shows that there are still some investors who are optimistic about the greenback.


Gold prices today edged higher in Indian markets, tracking higher global rates. Real yields exhibit a historically negative correlation with gold prices, and their inverse relationship can be visualized in the graph below. Gold prices have been trending lower since early January, weighed by vaccine progress and rising longer-dated Treasury yields. Well, although the “digital gold vs. gold” narrative is fun, it’s not clear that it’s real in any meaningful sense.
Copper vaulted above $9,000 a ton.Coming up… Gold prices are trading up by 0.4% at Rs 46,375 per 10 grams. Further rises in real yields may serve to undermine gold prices, which is non-yielding. The Johannesburg-listed miner, one of the world’s largest platinum producers, reported headline earnings per share (HEPS) for 2020 of 115.54 rand ($7.83), compared with 70.87 rand a year earlier. On MCX, gold futures rose 0.3% to Rs 46,340 per 10 grams, after sliding to eight-month lows of Rs 45,861 in the previous session.
On the other hand, an – with oil and copper prices already shooting higher, also for their own reasons.
While nickel makes up 60 per cent, cobalt and manganese make up 20 per cent each.


Iraq s oil minister claimed that the country was scrapping the bid called for prepayment for crude, which was originally intended when oil prices were lower. Asia’s third-largest economy imported about 4.8 million barrels per day (bpd) oil in January, a decline of 6% from the previous month and marginally higher than a year earlier. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, advanced 1.30 per cent to USD 63.73 per barrel. OPEC this month cut its 2021 forecast for U.S. tight crude, another term for shale, and expects production to decline by 140,000 barrels per day to 7.16 million bpd.
Oil prices grew stronger on Monday morning trade with Brent & WTI hitting their highest levels since January 2020 and WTI crossing the $60/bbl mark. For real time export numbers please refer to the Oil Flows Explorer on Eikon. Chinese trader Zhenhua Oil Corp was touted to be a frontrunner for securing the contract. Iran is also set to take part as the Islamic Republic engages in a diplomatic back-and-forth that could eventually lift sanctions on its crude exports.
Margins have also suffered greatly this week as gasoline feedstocks such as naphtha are fetching a higher price than the finished product itself. With the WTI prices crossing the $60/bbl level, it provides more support for bringing new rigs back into operation.

United States

The rally was more pronounced with the growing hopes of US stimulus, when the US president pushed his first major legislative for a $1.9 trillion Coronavirus relief plan. less Last March, the Fed essentially urged investors to take on risk and go up the risk curve. US stock futures are trading lower today, indicating a negative opening for Wall Street. Nasdaq-100 futures fell 1.3%, suggesting that tech stocks will lead the market lower after the opening bell.
European barrels have been pulled across the Atlantic, as demand prospects were boosted with the vaccine rollout ahead of the US summer driving season. Today, Wall Street continues to use Zacks research including the Zacks Rank and Zacks Equity Research, which combines the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis. As of this moment it’s looking like a down day for the coin and a down day for NASDAQ futures. Last March, as Covid-19 began to create havoc, stocks were in free fall and bonds were getting bid up, the Fed got to work.
President Joe Biden’s stimulus will help America recover and funds can flow out of the US to other places. He is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg, and The Wall Street Journal, as well as other top-tier publications.


The comments come after Biden and President Xi Jinping spoke earlier this month.


According to the website, sales of plug-in vehicles were 3.2 million last year with the EU accounting for 10.2 per cent of total sales. Though overall sales in the global market dropped 20 per cent year-on-year, the growth in the EU increased by 137 per cent. Last year, the European Union (EU) topped China as the largest EV car seller with sales of 1.4 million vehicles. Both the Bank of England and the ECB are buying corporate bonds to keep credit markets functioning smoothly after the coronavirus pandemic dealt a blow to the global economy.
All eyes are on PM Boris Johnson who is set to lay out the path to reopening the UK with schools set to open 8th March.
By now, I have built up excellent skills and experience in analyzing macroeconomic and political developments in Europe, the Eurozone and Germany, including ECB watching. Main focus: Europe, Eurozone, Germany and ECB.