Open: New York Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture February 25, 2021

A member of the National Guard plays a trumpet during a flag rai


The Andean country, the world’s top producer of washed arabica, will produce 6.06 million bags of coffee through June, the federation said in a statement. Arabica coffee futures on ICE climbed to the highest level in more than a year on Wednesday before some profit-taking emerged, leading to a lower close.


The expectation of a vaccine driven quick economic recovery is spurring the reflation trade boosting demand for riskier assets whilst dragging on demand for the safe haven US Dollar. The dollar strengthened though against other traditional safe haven currencies, maintaining a two-day gain to trade at105.875 yen and holding near the three-month high of90.945 Swiss francs reached overnight. The Canadian dollar changed hands at its own three-year high of C$1.2502 per US dollar.
US Dollar hits new low against Australian and Canadian Dollar. However, we now expect a slightly stronger dollar ahead and see USDNOK about sideways going forward.We still expect the NOK to strengthen during the next couple of years. EUR/USD looks towards 1.22 and currently trades at a monthly high of 1.2180 heading into the European session amid broad US Dollar weakness (FXE, UDN). “The dollar will probably weaken over time as economies pick-up and the reflation trade gets more attention,” said Bart Wakabayashi, Tokyo branch manager of State Street Bank and Trust.
The euro traded near the top of its recent range at $1.2178, near the almost one-month high of $1.2180 touched earlier this week. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.19 per cent to 90. This in turn weakened the US dollar, which usually has a positive impact on commodities prices, as well as increasing investor s risk appetite.


After the recent decline, gold prices are now down about Rs 10,000 per 10 grams as compared to August highs of Rs 56,200 per 10 grams. The platinum miner reported headline earnings per share (HEPS) of 1855 cents for the six months ended on Dec. 31, compared with 436 cents per share last year. Gold prices today extended decline to the third day in Indian markets amid a risk-on rally. He writes a bi-weekly in-depth analysis for one of Germany´s largest gold and silver retailer the “pro aurum group”.
In global markets, gold prices fell 0.4% as a risk-on rally in equities dimmed the appeal of the safe-haven asset. Nornickel is the world’s largest palladium producer, accounting for 40% of the globally mined metal, and one of the world’s largest nickel producers. The price of Gold confirmed a symmetrical triangle breakdown on the said timeframe after delivering an hourly close below the rising trendline support at $1796. Gold prices are trading flat at Rs 46,528 per 10 grams.
The brokerage’s large bullish bets have startled some traders as prices for copper, widely used in power and construction, hit 9-1/2-year highs. He is well known for combining technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis into one accurate conclusion about the gold market.


The largest U.S. oil producer is reeling from the sharp decline in oil demand and a series of bad bets on projects when prices were much higher. As the global recovery continues, oil demand will rise and oil inventories will fall further. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, advanced 0.16 per cent to $67.15 per barrel. less Crude and Brent oil prices are surging this week, up over 7% and 6%, respectively. Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs raised its price target for Brent oil to hit $75 a barrel by Q3, up from a price target of $65.
A severe storm led to US crude output to drop by around 1 million bpd last week, which is more than 10% of production. The report showed a 1.3 million barrels build in crude stocks to 463 million barrels due to exceptionally low refinery utilisation, while US gasoline stocks remained unchanged. Given a faster vaccine roll-out and much higher oil prices than expected, the outlook for the Norwegian economy has improved.
Given the outlook for both rates and oil prices longer out, we actually believe there is a good chance the cross could come below 10.00 before the summer.
Crude inventories were up by 1.3 million barrels in the week to 463 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 5.2 million-barrel drop.

United States

Speaking to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, he said that the U.S. economy is a long way from full employment and the Fed’s inflation goals. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated on Wednesday that the central bank wouldn’t adjust policy until the economy is clearly improving, and will look through any near-term spike in inflation. The Fed still wants to keep inflation contained, but it no longer recognizes the concept of “too high” employment.
How much further can bond yields rally without defenestrating equities (and effectively forcing the Fed to show its hand and come up with more support for markets)? Nasdaq Futures are trading up 28 points (up 0.2%) while Dow Futures are trading up by 79 points (up 0.3%) The rupee is trading at 72.46 against the US$. That being said, not all indices are created equal and the high-flying Nasdaq 100, which has dragged markets higher since March 2020, maybe falling out of favor. The rise in Treasury yields means investors have new reasons to pay attention to Fed speakers.
Unlike in the wake of the Great Financial Crisis, when the Fed kept trying new things in monetary policy — QEI, QEII, Operation Twist (lol), Evan’s Rule, etc. Under the old Fed framework, as Brainard describes it, there was this notion that sometimes employment could get “too high.” less (XAU/USD) eyes deeper losses, as the rally in the US Treasury yields picks up pace in European trading.


China denied ever asking U.S. diplomats to take anal swab tests for Covid-19 following a report that said Beijing admitted to the practice. Instead, Beijing and Moscow like those thorns in America’s side.