Open: New York Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture January 04, 2021

A member of the National Guard plays a trumpet during a flag rai


Raw sugar futures on ICE climbed to a five-week high on Thursday, boosted by tightening supplies and a weakening dollar, while arabica coffee prices also advanced. 3 corn supplier was a sign of tightening global food supplies during the COVID-19 pandemic. Malaysian palm oil futures climbed, as rival soyoil gained on concerns over disruptions to Argentina supply and dry weather conditions in South America.


In global markets, gold prices rose to near two-month highs, supported by a weak dollar and concerns about a surge in new coronavirus cases around the world. FOREX: The U.S. dollar held near mid-2018 lows as bullish sentiment across global markets prompted investors to buy riskier currencies such as the Chinese yuan, despite a resurgent pandemic. The sliding dollar helps, but also the market’s resilience is fueled by investors’ buying frenzy. In FX markets, the cyclically-sensitive Norwegian Krone largely outperformed alongside the Euro, as the haven-associated US Dollar continued to lose ground against its major counterparts.
Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.9%, with Japan’s Topix index closing 0.5% lower as the yen rose against the dollar. The safe-haven dollar renews its slide that typified late 2020 as investors look beyond the current coronavirus crisis (FXE, UDN). less 2021 has kicked-off where we left-off as 2020 closed out, with the US Dollar under pressure, stocks at record highs, and bitcoin through the roof.
(GLD, SLV) The Euro stormed higher against its haven-associated counterparts in 2020, climbing 3.4% and 8.8% respectively against the Japanese Yen and US Dollar. If the central bank in the United States continues to work so feverishly against the currency, the British pound should be a beneficiary. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index had gained 1.5% by 5:50 a.m., boosted by strong manufacturing data from the euro area.


China has imported very little steel scrap, an iron ore substitute that can be remelted to make steel, in 2020 amid tight restrictions on solid waste inflows. Even with the recent volatility in prices, gold remains among the best-performing commodities this year to combat the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. This, alongside supply deficits, pushed gold and palladium prices up by more than 20% this year, while silver rose 47%, and platinum 10%. The country’s copper output fell 2.1% to 493,538 tonnes in November, the agency said.
Tracking similar global trends, gold prices surged today in Indian markets. Significantly, two of those are reserved for steel and cement plants, as opposed to utilities, where previous investments have led to big failures. Note that gold prices have been trading in a very narrow range over the past two weeks. (ETH-X, BITCOMP) Gold and silver also benefited from the Greenback’s slide, gaining 1.3% and 2.83% respectively despite yields on US 10-year Treasuries pushing back above 0.94%.
Chile’s total copper production through November hit 5.29 million tonnes, an increase of 0.2% over the same period in 2019. Speaking of the precious yellow metal, how lucrative has gold been as a long-term investment in India?


Saudi seaborne crude exports for last week were seen at 35.8 million bbl (5.1 million bpd) compared to the revised 49.3 million bbl (7.0 million bpd) the week prior. Russian oil and gas condensate output declined to 10.27 million barrels per day (bpd) last year, according to energy ministry data cited by the Interfax news agency. Weekly Iraqi crude exports went up 2.4 million bbl to 22.7 million bbl (3.2 million bpd). The poll of 39 economists and analysts conducted in the second half of December forecast Brent crude prices would average $50.67 per barrel next year.
less Oil is advancing, hitting a fresh multi month high as OPEC is expected to keep production capped. Oil prices gained by 2.0% on Monday morning trade with Brent seen at $52.89/bbl, up 2.1% and WTI seen at $49.47/bbl, up by 2.0% as of 0700 hrs GMT. For real time export numbers please refer to the Oil Flows Explorer on Eikon. SOMO has assured that there was no impact on oil exports.
Brent and WTI gained 0.9% and 0.2% for the last trading day of the year to close at $51.8/bbl and $48.52/bbl respectively. Access the gasoline report here (link to be pasted on Eikon search) You can access the full report here.

United States

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has repeatedly called on the central bank to address inequality…but the irony is, the Fed is one of the progenitors of economic inequality. less This is one of my favorite posts to write every year as we get to look back on Wall Street predictions and see how they panned out. less In the later stages of a bull market advance, the financial media and Wall Street analysts start seeking out rationalizations to support their bullish views.
Votes President Donald Trump urged election officials in Georgia to “find 11,780 votes” to flip the state that President-elect Joe Biden won in November’s election. Fed chairman Powell has made countless remarks about the need for the US central bank to address climate change. Looking ahead, a slew of PMI figures out of Europe and the US headline the economic docket alongside Brazil’s trade balance release for the month of December. He sees risks subsiding with the easing of the trade war, coronavirus vaccine progress, and the conclusion of the US election.
That could change if federal resources are used to speed things up in the US and if Europe approves the AstraZeneca (AZN) inoculation. Now let’s take a look at their thoughts on 2020… After looking at all the Wall Street reports, here are the targets from Wall Street’s top strategists. More Republicans criticized efforts by members of their own party to oppose certification of Biden s win, an unorthodox legislative plan that Trump has greeted with enthusiasm.


The supermarket sticker shock threatened by a no-deal Brexit has been averted, but British shoppers may still find prices creeping higher. Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned that tougher restrictions may be on the way and is under pressure to close all schools in England. Furthermore, we have the Brexit situation finally coming to an end, although there are still a lot of minor details to work through. From the minute the ECB selected Christine Lagarde to succeed Mario Draghi, it seemed almost like a forgone conclusion.
less Later this year, the ECB will meet for a grand strategy review.