Open: New York Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture January 11, 2021

A member of the National Guard plays a trumpet during a flag rai


Combined across CBOT corn, wheat, soybeans and soy products, and including Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat, speculators’ total gross longs have hit a record 987,624 futures and options contracts. Within the past week, CBOT corn, soybean and wheat futures have all notched prices not seen since 2014. Archer, who advises mills in the world’s largest sugar producer, said the current hedging level is the highest since it started doing the projections in 2012.
Raw sugar futures on ICE closed stable on Friday after the previous session’s 4% dive, ending the week little changed. MARKET NEWS Chicago soybean futures rose for a second straight session to hit their highest in 6-1/2 years, as tightening supplies and strong Chinese demand underpinned prices. It expects Brazilian sugar exports to reach 25 million tonnes in 2021-22.


Dollar indexThe dollar index closed marginally higher at 90.10 last week as against the preceding close of 89.94. In global markets, gold prices continued their slide amid a stronger dollar, a rise in US bond yields, and firm equities. MARKET NEWS Gold eased, touching a near six-week low earlier in the session, as a stronger dollar and higher U.S. Treasury yields kept prices under pressure. What will it take for the powerful central bank to boost bond buys and send the dollar down?
Moreover, the dollar index is signalling a rally in the greenback. Dems’ Georgia victories are behind the significant dollar rise, not the historic mob storming of the Capitol. Following this, the dollar index has opened with a gap-up at 90.31 today, and it looks set to run up more. Markets slip Stocks and Treasuries are retreating this morning as the dollar climbs against all its major peers. So, the depreciation of the rupee can be attributed to a strong dollar.
Euro Stoxx 50 retreats by 0.44% at press time as rising COVID-19 cases have dampened investor sentiment.


On MCX, February gold futures fell 0.4% to Rs 48,760 per 10 grams, extending losses to Rs 2,350 in just two days. The Gold price failed to maintain a move higher above the descending channel which has been in place since early August, indicating weakness in the price above $1900. S&P 500 futures pointed to a drop at the open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.107%, oil traded below $52 a barrel and gold was higher. WTI crude futures are down by 0.54% to $51.96, while gold futures are up 1% at $1,853.70.
Gold prices are trading up 0.3% at Rs 49,120 per 10 grams. In the previous session, gold had tumbled Rs 2,050 per 10 grams. This informed our decision to begin favouring industrial commodities over gold (GLD). less As previously shown, Gold has broken below 1869, critical support. However, we should expect the main move of Gold to be down during this week. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 closed 0.90% lower, driven by a plunge in gold miner shares.


Saudi seaborne crude exports for last week were seen at 32.4 million bbl (4.6 million bpd) compared to the revised 43.5 million bbl (6.2 million bpd) the week prior. Malaysian palm oil futures fell after data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) showed the world’s second-biggest palm producer imported record high levels of palm oil in December. Weekly Iraqi crude exports went up 0.2 million bbl to 24.5 million bbl (3.5 million bpd). U.S. crude oil production has fallen 2 million barrels per day in the last year as low prices and demand forced shale producers to cut their losses.
Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, surprised the market on Jan. 5 with a voluntary output cuts of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in February and March. Oil rigs (RIG-OL-USA-BHI) rose by 8 to 275 and gas rigs (RIG-GS-USA-BHI) rose by 1 to 84, the highest since May as per data by Baker Hughes. Gasoline departures from Northwest Europe to the United States picked up last week with three vessels expected to cross the Atlantic, while the week prior saw only one departure.
The U.S. has classified Yemen s Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization after attacks on oil tankers last year in the Red Sea.
Saudi Aramco raised the OSPs for Feb crude oil sales to Asia in the range of $0.2-0.7/bbl with the lighter grades seeing sharper increases. For real time export numbers please refer to the Oil Flows Explorer on Eikon.

United States

On the political front, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif) said the House may move to impeach President Trump as soon as this week. The only reason the probabilities weren’t even higher was the possibility that the Fed’s money pumping following its 2019 “pivot” would push the recession start into 2021. If investors throw a 2013-style tantrum – when shares fell on the mere hint that the Fed would slow Treasury purchases – Powell may change his mind.
When economically sensitive sectors and bond yields rise together, it often signals that Wall Street is embarking on the classic reflation trade that anticipates a full-fledged economic recovery. Plunge Shares in Twitter Inc. fell 7% in pre-market trading after the platform permanently banned President Trump’s account on the site. Platforms including TikTok, Twitter , YouTube, Reddit, Instagram, Facebook and messaging platform Discord have become the new Wall Street trading desks. So far, markets are shrugging off the political drama in Washington, which is set to result in the second impeachment of outgoing President Donald Trump for inciting violence.
There is, however, an uncomfortably high probability of the US economy re-entering recession territory during 2022. US stock futures are trading lower today, indicating a negative opening for Wall Street indices. Since leaving Wall Street I’ve dedicated my financial career towards studying this situation and helping people understand what’s actually happening.


The Beijing-based internet firm, best known for its eponymous search engine, said it plans to establish a separate company that will make EVs. The order aims to stop U.S. investors’ money from supporting Beijing’s efforts to modernize its military.


City of London’s plight laid bare as hopes for Brexit deal fade.