Open: New York Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture January 26, 2021

A member of the National Guard plays a trumpet during a flag rai


Moscow is expected to approve the higher wheat export tax soon as it seeks to curb domestic food inflation triggered by the COVID-19 crisis. Earlier this month local livestock and poultry producers’ associations asked the government to limit corn exports in 2020/21 to 22 million tonnes. Sugar production is expected to account for 45.2% of the region’s cane crush, up from 44.5% in a prior forecast, StoneX said. Russia is one of the world’s largest wheat exporters.


Yesterday’s rollercoaster ride in US stocks on a potential delay to the US stimulus package saw the dollar advance while bond yields dropped. Bets the US dollar keeps falling, to extend a downtrend which began last March, hit an almost decade high last week, positioning data shows. Meanwhile the US Dollar is advancing versus major peers supported by its safe haven properties amid concerns over a delay for Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus. The defensively-minded US Dollar and Japanese Yen rose while their sentiment-geared Australian and New Zealand Dollars fell alongside stocks and cyclical commodities including copper and crude oil.
On the other side of the pond, the safe-haven dollar is gaining ground amid concerns that President Joe Biden’s stimulus plan is delayed or watered down. The yen was steady at 103.76 per dollar, while the risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars softened marginally. For markets, the calculation is simple – In such a scenario, the dollar would fall, while protracted talks would boost the greenback.
Stocks are on the back foot and the safe-haven dollar is gaining ground across the board. The euro and yen are likewise hemmed in, with the euro unable to break resistance around $1.2190 while the continent grapples with new Covid-19 infections and fresh lockdowns. The Swiss franc, the euro and the British pound were down 0.1%, 0.1% and 0.3% respectively against the U.S. dollar.


In an interview with broadcaster Bloomberg HT, Donmez said Turkey had produced 42 tonnes of gold in 2020, a record high, and it would produce more in 2021. Gold prices idled as the downbeat backdrop weighed on bond yields – which is typically supportive for non-interest-bearing bullion – even as the Greenback climbed. Gold and silver price discovery will continue to be a sham much of the time. S&P 500 futures pointed to a small drop at the open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.045%, oil gained and gold slipped.
Gold bugs aren’t betting on bridges being built any time soon. weakened with thereby lifting the gold-silver ratio to a one-week high.


Still, gasoline inventories are anticipated to have risen by 1.71 million bbl, while distillates are likely to have fallen by 182,000 bbl. MARKETS TODAY OIL: Oil prices ticked up alongside rising European shares and amid reports of a blast in Saudi Arabia, trading near 11-month highs. Malaysian palm oil futures gave up early gains to trade lower by midday break, as data showing weak exports in January dampened demand outlook. According to a Reuters poll, US crude stocks are expected to show a build of 603,000 bbl for the week ending the 22nd of January.
Ltd. and Gunvor Group, have lines of credit from banks that give them cheaper rates to finance reduced-carbon production of everything from oil to aluminum. While Saudi Arabia has pledged a further 1 million bpd reduction in its crude supply, Russia and Kazakhstan have been allowed to increase production slightly. On a daily basis oil loadings will decline by 19% in February from January plan, Reuters calculations showed.
On a bullish front, Indian crude import data showed the highest arrivals since October 2018. As a result, the front month Brent spread is signaling the tightest market conditions in a year. Front month March WTI futures were up $0.01 at $52.58/bbl, with the other 49-month forward contracts traded between -$0.16 and $0.13.

United States

Pretax profit at UBS’s main wealth management business rose 22% in the fourth quarter to $936 million from $766 million in the fourth quarter of 2019. Global Headlines Impeachment moves | Senators will be sworn in as jurors in Trump s impeachment trial today and issue a summons to the former president. Worries that the Fed might signal unease with the recent rise in inflation expectations – capping scope for more monetary support – may hurt as well.
“Dovish Fed policy is a key driver for our view of upside in risk assets and bearish USD view. They pumped trillions into the debt markets via Wall Street banks and cut interest rates back to zero.
The continent is lagging behind the UK and the US and far behind Israel, the world leader – which is beginning to see promising results from its immunization scheme. In the US, President Biden declared himself open to negotiating the income cut-off level for stimulus checks. Senators will be sworn in as jurors in Donald Trump’s impeachment trial later, but then pause on that issue to get through more confirmations to Biden’s cabinet.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index had gained 0.6% by 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time, with financial services firms among the strongest performers after UBS results. “Support from the Fed and fiscal intervention is badly needed and we expect the (Fed) will dismiss any suggestion of early tapering.”


PBOC advisor Ma Jun cited the risk of fomenting asset bubbles as the impetus behind the action.


Chancellor Angela Merkel told party colleagues that Germany s management of the pandemic has slipped out of control. His burgeoning sales of high end Scottish beef to Europe are on hold because his business is too small to navigate the post-Brexit customs border for now. Brexit butchers EU trade for Scottish beef producers Brexit has dealt a blow to Andrew Duff’s business. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to announce his plan today for quarantining travelers on arrival.
The virtual Davos meeting continues today with speakers including Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron. EU turns screws on bankers clinging to their London desks.