Open: New York Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture July 19, 2021

A member of the National Guard plays a trumpet during a flag rai

Currencies

Pay close attention to the US dollar, as a strengthening US dollar also tends to work against the stock market as well. The dollar rides high, with the Scandis and dollar-bloc currencies off leading the move with losses of mostly 0.3%-0.7%, with the Canadian dollar being tagged for more than 1%. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 74.73 against the dollar, then fell further to 74.77, registering a fall of 20 paise over its previous close.
The Indian Rupee started on a weaker note this Monday against the greenback tracking the strength of the dollar, Reliance Securities said in a research note. I’d also expect to see the dollar rising as global investors generally want to hold dollars when things are looking their worst. The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading up 0.02 per cent at 92.70. Since the start of July, 10-year yields have declined around 18bps yet the dollar index has been moving higher (SPTL).
Pixabay The dollar is losing its reaction function to falling Treasury yields, which suggests that it is attracting safe-haven flows. Dollar pressured by the Yield and the higher balance extreme might serve as resistance. The dollar is up from its recent lows but the rally so far looks pretty anemic.

Metals

Jason Sen Follow Gold Spot broke first support at 1825/23 to bottom exactly at strong support at 1813/10, but there was no bounce from here. Gold Spot broke first support at 1825/23 to bottom exactly at strong support at 1813/10, but there was no bounce from here. The yield is down by 0.7%, testing buyers around the swing lows of the prior week while Gold rose about 0.2%, testing DVAH for buyers. Gold prices remained weak today in Indian markets amid lackluster global cues.
Silver Spot could not break above first resistance at 2625/30 and collapsed to important support at 2580/2570. Gold prices are trading down by 0.4% at Rs 47,885 per 10 grams. Silver tests important support at 2580/2570 but looks likely to break lower for a sell signal. In the previous session, gold had dropped Rs 400 per 10 grams. Copper prices peaked a little later (early May), fell 16% at the recent low, and are still down nearly 12% from the highs. On MCX, gold futures were flat at Rs 48,076 per 10 grams.

Oil

Investment in shale oil companies has finally collapsed—even as oil prices levitate. That is a powerful reminder that there is plenty of spare crude oil capacity out there to meet rising demand, especially in the US and parts of Europe (OIL). The grand OPEC+ bargain, to boost production, raise baselines, and make nice again, sets the stage for slightly lower oil prices. While the new OPEC+ agreement does limit the likelihood of some extremely bullish Q4 oil price scenarios playing out, it also reduces the downside risk of OPEC+ falling apart.
Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures fell 0.57 per cent to USD 73.17 per barrel. Still, this is not a significant adverse outcome as it increases the probability of an orderly return to normal production levels for heavy-weight oil producers. Free cash flow numbers for the industry as a whole made it absolutely obvious that shale oil had been a money-loser for years. less Oil prices extended losses, albeit at a slower pace, on Friday, July 16, with Brent dipping 0.16% to $ 72.64/bbl, and WTI closing 0.13% lower at $71.09/bbl.
As it stands, the news seems to have left crude oil traders without a clear directional lead. That seems to be tuned to a “risk-off” setting, which usually bodes ill for oil prices.

United States

Nasdaq Futures are trading down by 12 points (down 0.1%) while Dow Futures are trading down by 133 points (down 0.4%). Thursday: Fed Chair testimony Friday: NY Cash Market Open We can see the large CPI print was bearish for the index, and the market recovered. The momentum continued this week, when small caps plunged 3.9%, while the Nasdaq 100 Index fell 0.2% and tech stocks in the S&P 500 added 0.4%. For a detailed explanation of the Fed policies – Why did the Federal Reserve start paying interest on reserve balances held on deposit at the Fed?
Does the Fed pay interest on required reserves, excess reserves, or both?
Bonds are bid, and the US 10-year yield is around three basis points lows near 1.26%. US stock futures are trading lower today, indicating a negative opening for Wall Street. This anemic investment environment is also reflected in the flatness of the US yield curve. Tuesday 1:00 PM: Weak 30-Year bond auction offered at 2.00% yield Wednesday: Fed Chair testimony . Weakness has been mild so far, but selling may yet gather steam as markets in Europe and the US join the fray.

Europe

Meanwhile, trade from Dublin Port to continental Europe has increased since Brexit while business with ports in Britain has slumped. His feature articles have been published on: FXstreet.com, Thestreet.com, Action forex, Forex TV, Istockanalyst, ForexFactory, Fxtraders.eu, Insidefutures.com, etc.

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