New York | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture July 28, 2020



Over two decades ago Jay got his start at the Kansas City Board of Trade in the Wheat Futures pit. Crop Watch corn and soybeans, but the fields in North Dakota are once again grappling with too much rain, while those in Nebraska and Ohio have not received enough. That would be 26% below the bumper crop which the European Union’s largest producer harvested in 2019, it said. That’s because these are coffee can stocks. Islamabad was exporting sugar until earlier this year, but now has a shortage as sugar production has fallen below consumption levels for the 2019/20 marketing year ending Sept. 30. Ivory Coast is in the middle of its April-to-October rainy season, but the central cocoa-growing region of Bongouanou recorded below average rainfall. COLUMN-Crop Watch: Mild weather supports big yields, though some relief needed -Braun Strong yield expectations continue for the U.S.



FOREX: The euro retreated from its two-year high as dollar sales declined before a two-day Federal Reserve meeting, during which investors expect its outlook will be reaffirmed. However, a $44 billion dollar increase over the last two weeks has seen the sentiment-defining index climb to fresh post-crisis highs. Market upheaval was widespread consistent with the funding, liquidity mechanisms that make the dollar rise more broadly even if it had been falling against the euro. Dollar index The dollar index seems to be under bear grip as it continued to head south on Monday, extending the downtrend for six weeks in a row. September WTI is little changed around $41.50 a barrel.The main development in the capital markets today is the firmer dollar against nearly all the major and emerging market currencies. Also, the dollar is facing significant downward pressure, as indicated by the dollar index. The US Dollar Index fell a hefty 1.6% last week, marking the fifth straight week of decline.



The Gold Springs project also had an NPV of nearly $300 million with current gold prices. Unfortunately, the sensitivity analysis only goes up to $1,700 per ounce gold price, but it still demonstrates the favorable economics as gold prices rise. Source: Liberty Gold Presentation In 2020, Liberty Gold plans to continue developing the mine with activities that will add value to the future buyer. Last week alone, 55 tonnes of gold and over 1,200 tonnes of silver flowed-in as gold rates soared by over five per cent. Source: Gold Springs Resource Presentation The Gold Springs project looks like a good one so far. Source: Liberty Gold Presentation The NPV and IRR calculated in the image above are assuming an initial capital requirement of $113.2 million and a $1,300 per ounce gold price. Also, look for nonsensical articles on the alleged price difference between paper gold and physical gold.



As seen below, operating income grew by 53% since 2016, despite the one-time negative oil price event that affected Q2’20 results. Refinitiv Oil Research estimates that US seaborne crude imports are likely to have fallen by 2% week-on-week to a total of 5.8 million bpd. OPEC prepares for an age of dwindling demand The coronavirus crisis may have triggered the long-anticipated tipping point in oil demand and it is focusing minds in OPEC. The IEA forecasts oil demand at the end of 2021 at 98.86 million bpd compared to 100.84 million bpd at the end of 2019. The volatility in crude oil and gasoline prices has been clearly reflected in recent years in both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). Still, gasoline inventories are anticipated to have fallen by 0.967 million bbl, while distillates are likely to have decreased by 0.333 million bbl. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.23 per cent to $43.51 per barrel.

United States


After this week’s FOMC meeting and the first look at Q2 GDP, the US July employment report is due at the end of next week. At last week’s close, Vanguard Total Bond Market (NASDAQ:BND) posted a 10.3% total return. Asian stock markets ended on a mixed note, ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting that begins today. However, a watered-down package is unlikely to get support by investors, which could increase worries about the health crisis, especially in the US. But the outlook remains uncertain, particularly around Fed posturing in the current environment, and thus, I wouldn’t put too much stock into a resumption of the buyback anytime soon. Facebook is the first of the US mega-cap companies this week to report earnings – tomorrow after the close. In this case, Marqeta chief revenue officer Omri Dahan said it would have taken years for the Wall Street giant to build a similar product in-house.



If she s viewed as a proxy for the U.S., Beijing might stonewall her candidacy. Five Things Follow Us Get the newsletter High stakes stimulus talks continue, virus back in Beijing, and another monster day for earnings. As for China, it s much less clear what kind of a candidate Beijing prefers, and that s by design. Beijing reported one new coronavirus case, its first in 21 days, reflecting the fragility of the Chinese capital’s success at stamping out infections earlier this month. Beijing confirmed a fresh case after going weeks without one, and Vietnam is battling a sudden spate of infections.



Meanwhile, Boris Johnson has said that a scheme offering £50 vouchers towards bike repairs will be launched on Tuesday in a drive to encourage active travel. Billions of euros are at stake for investors as the ECB extended a request that banks hold off on returning capital until January 2021. The European Union request “is suspended until the order terminating the present proceedings for interim relief is made,” the Luxembourg-based court said in a judgment dated July 24. The money rate floor, the ECB’s deposit rate, was reduced but only by 10 bps, making NIRP only a little more NIRP-y at -30 bps. Getty Images The ECB asked lenders to delay paying dividends until next year to conserve their financial strength. The ECB, which supervises the largest banks in the eurozone, extended its previous recommendation for a moratorium on dividends and buybacks until January from October. Of those who thought the pandemic was handled badly, 70 per cent blamed the government and 65 per cent blamed Boris Johnson.