Open: New York Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture July 30, 2020

Agriculture

Access the latest vessel line-up information for Argentina and Brazil agriculture commodities imports and exports and China soybean imports, and to see the latest updates for Egypt wheat and soybean imports, Saudi Arabia wheat and corn imports, and Malaysia palm oil. USDA representative in Argentina sees lower corn, wheat crops Argentina will harvest less wheat and corn this season than previously estimated, the local representative of the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a report on Wednesday.
COLUMN-Brazilian exporters unfazed by strong U.S. corn, soy demand 1 exporter of soybeans and in the top three in corn. Wheat production in the 2020/21 crop year is forecast at 20 million tonnes versus the 21 million tonne estimate given in the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report published earlier this month. MARKET NEWS U.S. corn, soybean and wheat Brazil corn and soybean Paraguay corn and soybean China corn EU-28 sugar beet Russia sugar beet Thailand sugarcane Trade Flows:
Thread count | China has bought more than $1 billion worth of American cotton in the past three months as part of the phase one trade deal signed with the U.S. in January, even though it doesn t need it right now. -Braun Exporters in the United States will have a busy start to the upcoming marketing year after the record or near-record soybean and corn sales this month, though they will have to keep an eye on shipments out of Brazil, which will continue to compete with U.S. supplies well into next year.
less Share By Lucy Craymer Close July 30, 2020

Currencies

less As we come into Thursday, we’re looking at a market that’s seen a whole lot of Dollar weakness and we believe the Buck has been hit a little too hard and fast at this point, with the door opening up for a healthy rebound. The scramble to limit risks comes as gold prices hit record highs this week, spurred by investors hunting for safe haven assets in markets rattled by worries of rising coronavirus cases, lofty equity valuations and a falling U.S. dollar.
At the interbank forex market, the rupee opened at 74.84, then lost further ground and touched 74.87 against the US dollar, down seven paise over its last close of 74.80. BL Research BureauThe rupee (INR) settled with a marginal gain yesterday at 74.79 compared to the previous close of 74.83 against the dollar. Gene comments on stock, bond, dollar, oil & gold markets, with a particular emphasis on monetary policy, technology issues and S&P intraday action. People are trying to get out of the dollar.
I think the dollar is going to crash.” Peter asked a poignant question: how is the Fed going to stop the dollar from falling? Once the dollar starts to fall, it takes on a life of its own. If the dollar is going to fall, and people believe it is going to fall, they’re going to dump those bonds.

Metals

Investors last week had already pushed gold prices past the record last set in August 2011. Although it isn’t a prolific region for gold production, it does present some opportunities for gold investors. The European Union is set to become the dominant EU-level bond issuer in the coming years, offering investors another type of safe EUR asset. In recent days, gold prices have hit record highs. It was widely feared at the time that the gold price was poised to break down below $1,000.
Since then, however, courageous contrarians have been rewarded by the gold price rising 75% and 6:52 am ET Real interest rates are back on investors’ minds with the collapse in yields on inflation-protected securities helping raise gold prices to fresh records in recent days.
This is also reflected in the valuation: mark-to-market adjustments made by Russian investment firm Aton indicate that at the gold price of $1,930/ounce, Polymetal is trading at a discount of 7% relative to its 1-year average EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.6 (currently 7.1). All that can safely be said is that the price will be ramped up until it starts falling, and then the cycle repeats.
The Canadian miner raised the low-end of its production outlook for the year, benefiting from a surge in gold prices and a ramp up in operations after coronavirus-led shutdowns.

Oil

Shell and Total opened Big Oil earnings with surprise profits on trading gains from buying and selling oil. Husky Energy racks up Q2 loss after oil slump Husky Energy posted a quarterly loss as the COVID-19 pandemic caused crude oil prices to crash and sapped global demand for fuel. The company posted a quarterly loss as the COVID-19 pandemic caused crude oil prices to crash and sapped global demand for fuel. As oil prices go up, the company’s potential increases significantly.
That’s not much when you consider that at one point in the quarter oil prices actually traded negative. Furthermore, oil prices have failed to increase because of the alarming rises in Covid-19 cases around the world, which is jeopardising the recovery in fuel demand as it raises prospects of lockdowns being re-imposed. OIL: My focus is in the financial markets, cyber-security, hacking, agriculture, natural gas, crude oil, geopolitics and alternative investments. Valero’s throughput, the amount of crude oil processed by its refineries, dropped 22% to 2.3 million barrels per day, while refining margins slumped 58% to $1.08 billion in the quarter ended June 30.
PREVIEW-Saudi Arabia may cut Sept crude oil prices to Asia survey

United States

Many people in the crowd were choosing not to wear face masks despite medical recommendations during the coronavirus pandemic AP Merchandise vendors wearing face masks at the BOK Centre in Tulsa, Oklahoma ahead of a Donald Trump rally Getty Trump supporter Scott Hilliard, left, argues with Black Lives Matter protester Eugene Smith near the BOK Centre in Tulsa, Oklahoma ahead of a campaign rally by the president AP A Trump supporter and a Black Lives Matter protester face off in Tulsa, Oklahoma ahead of a campaign rally by Donald Trump AFP via
Many people in the crowd were choosing not to wear face masks despite medical recommendations during the coronavirus pandemic AP Merchandise vendors wearing face masks at the BOK Centre in Tulsa, Oklahoma ahead of a Donald Trump rally Getty Trump supporter Scott Hilliard, left, argues with Black Lives Matter protester Eugene Smith near the BOK Centre in Tulsa, Oklahoma ahead of a campaign rally by the president AP A Trump supporter and a Black Lives Matter protester face off in Tulsa, Oklahoma ahead of a campaign rally by Donald Trump AFP via
A police officer gestures during a Black Lives Matter event near the BOK Centre in Tulsa, Oklahoma ahead of a campaign rally by Donald Trump AP Trump supporters take their seats in the BOK Centre in Tulsa, Oklahoma ahead of a campaign rally by the president.
A protester shouts at Donald Trump supporters outside a rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma REUTERS Eric Trump, Donald Trump’s second son, in the BOK Centre in Tulsa, Oklahoma ahead of a campaign rally A protester shouts at Donald Trump supporters outside a rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma REUTERS Eric Trump, Donald Trump’s second son, in the BOK Centre in Tulsa, Oklahoma ahead of a campaign rally
Again cap speaking outside a rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma REUTERS Trump supporters wait to enter a rally at the BOK Center in Tulsa, Oklahoma AFP via Getty Images Donald Trump supporters and opponents clash outside the BOK Centre in Tulsa, Oklahoma ahead of an election rally by the president AP A Trump supporter sits in the upper rows of the BOK Centre in Tulsa, Oklahoma ahead of a campaign rally.
Again cap speaking outside a rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma REUTERS Trump supporters wait to enter a rally at the BOK Center in Tulsa, Oklahoma AFP via Getty Images Donald Trump supporters and opponents clash outside the BOK Centre in Tulsa, Oklahoma ahead of an election rally by the president AP -06-30T09:27:03.173Z Donald Trump’s conversations with former prime minister Theresa May have been described as “humiliating and bullying” by US officials, according to a CNN report.
-06-30T09:38:49.696Z Our reporter, , has more details below on the CNN report about Donald Trump’s interactions with Theresa May: The ruling came just hours after Republican congressman Louie Gohmert tested positive for Covid-19, who had been due to travel with Donald Trump.

China

After Hong Kong | Fears are growing that China’s President Xi Jinping wants to cement his place alongside Mao and Deng by recapture authority over Taiwan, a prize that s eluded Communist Party leaders for decades. Hong Kong, newly tamed under President Xi Jinping s national security law, is only the latest place to test Beijing s patience. Businessweek Today After subduing Hong Kong, Xi Jinping has set his sights on Taiwan, as the Chinese leader continues on the path of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping by bringing more territory under Beijing’s control.
In an online press conference for British media Liu Xiaoming, acknowledged that the disagreements over human rights abuses in Xinjiang, tech giant Huawei, and Hong Kong had “seriously poisoned the atmosphere”. > UK Politics China’s ambassador to Britain has warned that “Cold War warriors” want to damage relations between Beijing and Britain and spark a new conflict. Of the domestic cases, 96 were recorded in Xinjiang, the far-flung western province occupied by China’s Muslim Uiyghers, a minority ethnic group that has been subjected to unimaginable brutality by the government in Beijing, which has herded more than a million of them into concentration-camp-like settings.
Since the days of Mao Zedong, China s leaders have bolstered their legitimacy by reclaiming and subsequently subduing rebellious parts of the country s far-flung corners most notably the huge territories of Tibet and Xinjiang.
That could eventually lead to Chinese-backed hog farms in the South American nation more famed for its cattle-rearing grasslands, at a time when Beijing is looking to diversify pork supply after domestic farms were hit hard by African swine flu.
Beijing’s ambassador, who spoke for around an hour in an address punctuated with propaganda videos, rejected claims of abuse against Uighur Muslims, describing claims by human rights groups as “the lies of the century”. News > UK

Europe

Reuters A pro-Brexit supporter jumps on an EU flag PA Getty AFP via Getty PA Getty AP Getty Reuters A pro-Brexit supporter jumps on an EU flag PA Getty AFP via Getty PA Getty AP Getty A man waves Union flags from a small car as he drives past Brexit supporters gathering AFP via Getty A pro-Brexit supporter pours beer onto an EU flag PA Getty An EU flag lies trampled in the mud Getty Getty PA PA Getty Getty PA AFP via Getty Pro-Brexit supporters celebrating in Parliament Square, after the UK left the European Union on 31 January.
A man waves Union flags from a small car as he drives past Brexit supporters gathering AFP via Getty A pro-Brexit supporter pours beer onto an EU flag PA Getty An EU flag lies trampled in the mud Getty Getty PA PA Getty Getty PA AFP via Getty A woman standing outside Sheffield town hall PA PA NHS workers during a minute’s silence outside Glenfield Hospital Getty Staff react outside Salford Royal Hospital in Manchester during a minute’s silence to pay tribute to the NHS staff and key workers who have died during the coronavirus outbreak PA Staff inside Camberwell bus depot in London, during a minute’s silence PA NHS staff at the Mater hospital in Belfast, during a minute’s silence to pay tribute to the NHS staff and key workers who have died during the coronavirus outbreak.
The demand for EU bonds should be strong and the EU has the potential to become the dominant EU-level issuer. Technically, the issuer is not new, since the EU has been borrowing via financial markets for a long time, but the current outstanding amount of EU bonds of just over EUR 50bn is relatively modest.
The demand will be there The current market environment should be very receptive to EU bonds. However, in the medium term, the higher amount of bonds should also make EU bonds more attractive due to better liquidity, and longer out EU bonds could trade at more expensive levels compared to at least the EFSF and the ESM.
The EIB continues to enjoy a slightly better credit rating compared to the EU (see more below) and EIB bonds will probably remain more expensive versus EU bonds for a longer time.

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