Open: New York Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture June 03, 2021



Mish on Coffee and Sugar Exchange less The May manufacturing PMI increased slightly from 60.7 to 61.2.


As of June 2, real-estate companies from China had sold $20.3 billion of dollar bonds this year, according to Refinitiv, a 16% increase over the same period last year. Gene comments on stock, bond, dollar, oil & gold markets, with a particular emphasis on monetary policy, technology issues and S&P intraday action. US Dollar is rising after Fed Harker calls for tapering asset purchases ADP private sector jobs reports and US ISM Services PMI are due. The dollar index has been moving in a horizontal trend for the past couple of weeks.
Gold prices dipped as the dollar strengthened. Supporting this, the foreign inflows are improving, and the dollar index shows persisting weakness in the greenback. The Swiss franc, the euro and the British pound dropped 0.3%, 0.2% and 0.1% respectively against the U.S. dollar. Pexels News headlines said that the fund will instead invest more in the Chinese Yuan (CYB), the Euro (FXE), and gold (GLD). The same is true for Ohio’s million-dollar payouts, in an economy with output in the hundreds of billions of dollars a year.


Hence, any rise in steel prices impacts the prices of vehicles, consumer goods, construction costs as steel is a raw material for these sectors. Note that tracking an uptick in global rates, domestic gold prices in India have risen more than Rs 5,000 per 10 grams over the past two months. “Domestic steel prices are at 20-25 per cent discount to international prices. In international markets, gold prices were flat, near a five-month high of US$ 1,907.7 per ounce, supported by a retreat in US bond yields.
Amid a flat global trend, gold prices in India edged lower today. Gold prices are trading down by 0.1% at Rs 49,106 per 10 grams. Indian iron ore has gone up by ₹4,000/tonne, which is also pushing steel prices higher. less (Length 00:12:51) Jordan Roy-Byrne joins Cory Fleck for a look at how gold has performed compared to gold stocks, bonds, and the US markets. On MCX, gold futures were down 0.1% to Rs 49,575 per 10 grams. Most of the steel companies have ramped up exports owing to weak domestic demand.


Still, gasoline stocks rose by 2.51 million bbl, compared to projection of a 1.48 million bbl decrease. According to a US oil and gas agency, commercial crude stocks in the country fell by 5.36 million bbl in the week ending the 28th May. A Reuters poll had predicted a draw of 2.44 million bbl in crude stocks and a 0.8 percentage points increase in refinery runs. Overall, prices may not see their next major move until the next LNG export report, which is due out at the end of the month.
Volatility index dips below 16 Benchmark indices were trading in the green during the afternoon on Thursday, supported by realty and oil & gas stocks. According to the DailyFX Economic Calendar, natural gas stocks for the week ending May 28 are expected to increase by 95 billion cubic feet. As of 08:00 GMT, the front month Brent futures contract was trading at $71.57/bbl, which is 0.31% higher compared to yesterday s settlement. The front month WTI futures contract traded 0.29% higher at $69.03/bbl at the same time.
Oil prices rallied to a fresh yearly high on Wednesday after the OPEC+ announcement. 1’s nominees won two seats on the oil and gas giant’s board.

United States

The planned action comes after the Trump-era policy was challenged in court and left investors confused about the extent of its reach to subsidiary firms. Will the reopening of the US economy lead the rent of shelter component back towards “fundamentals” such as inflation expectations, house price developments and the landlord asking rent? However, per the last EIA short-term energy outlook released May 11, the US is expected to export 8.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d).
The earnings per share were expected by Wall Street experts to be around $3.31, the company reported per-share earnings of $3.66. Our trend-model suggests that we can reach 7- 8% headline inflation this summer but whether it is enough to scare anyone, including the Fed, remains to be seen. The new breed of traders focuses on giving control to “the little guy” that Wall Street’s top dogs consider as “dumb money.” Nasdaq Futures are trading down by 8 points (down 0.1%) while Dow Futures are trading down by 39 points (down 0.1%).
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said yesterday that policy makers need to start discussing the appropriate time to have those discussions.
This fall is partly due to a significant number of diversions over the last few weeks as vessels were directed from the European region towards the US. The biggest monthly increase the US core inflation since 1982 (in April) hardly scared anyone but Robert Kaplan.


We expect the ECB’s bond purchase volumes to fall clearly already in August, which is customary, since bond issuance volumes normally also fall clearly in that month. The ECB could then decide on lower purchase volumes at the September meeting when the starting point is already lower due to the lower August buying. We think there will be only limited changes to the ECB staff projections in June, but see clear upside risks to the ECB’s extremely low inflation path.
less The ECB is likely to continue buying bonds at close to the current pace also after next week’s meeting. While market expectations have already shifted amidst dovish ECB commentary, a decision to continue buying at the current pace would support a pause in the trend of higher yields. Headline inflation has recently surprised the ECB staff to the upside and the headline inflation projections will be lifted for both 2021 and 2022. We noticed that Schnabel explicitly pointed to seasonality as one of the aspects the ECB considers when deciding on its bond purchases.
In April, the unemployment rate declined to 8.0% – much below the 8.6% that the ECB staff has projected for the full year 2021. Germany failed to cut dangerous air pollution, EU court rules.