Open: New York Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture June 08, 2021

These two reports are highly important to the size of 2021 crops and help determine corn & wheat’s past quarter’s feed demand. Reports of strong feedlot wheat usage have surfaced, but this might not impact the 2020/21 balance sheet until June 30 quarterly stocks are known. S Plains rains will likely up hard red wheat’s contribution to the US winter wheat output by 39 million to 770 million. Wheat’s US old-crop balance sheet could see a slight increase in its export demand after a recent surge in shipments.
Corn’s ethanol utilization through April & the expansion of automobile travel as US vaccinations move to 70% suggests biofuel output could return to 2019 levels. This could slip corn’s old -crop stocks to 1.207 billion bu which we and the trade are now expecting. Given these past tendencies, the upcoming US corn balance sheet will likely follow this pattern. A similar 50 million decline 2021/22’s ending stocks is also anticipated (CORN).
US old-crop soybean ending stocks are expected to stay at 120 million.

Despite the limited yield support, the dollar is steady to firmer, with sterling, New Zealand dollar, and yen nursing 0.20%-0.35% losses. Gene comments on stock, bond, dollar, oil & gold markets, with a particular emphasis on monetary policy, technology issues and S&P intraday action. The retreat in gold could be largely associated with a broad-based rebound staged by the US dollar amid the cautious market mood. A relatively softer dollar also improved the appetite for gold.
Yet, a large deviation from the baseline forecast may stoke market volatility, especially for the US Dollar and precious metals. Investors prefer the safe-haven US dollar amid inflation anxiety and uncertainty on the Fed’s monetary policy stance. The WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of other currencies, has been on an almost nonstop slide since the start of April. Image Source: Pixabay Additionally, renewed US-China concerns and covid woes in Asia lift the safe-haven appeal of the dollar at gold’s expense.
The dollar gained, while gold prices dipped. Recent comments from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen appears to be bolstering the US Dollar and weighing on precious metal prices too.

To know more about gold, check out our article on how to invest in gold here: How to Invest in Gold? Gold traders eagerly await the US inflation data due this Thursday for fresh direction, as the data could throw fresh light on the Fed’s next policy move. The world’s largest gold ETF – SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) – saw 1.9 million shares of net redemption last week, pausing a four-week inflow streak. Note that last week, gold had hit almost a five-month high of Rs 49,700 in Indian markets amid a global rally on lingering worries over inflation.
Gold prices are trading down by 0.1% at Rs 49,130 per 10 grams. Gold prices are trading up by 0.1% at Rs 49,189 per 10 grams. This mixed dynamic renders gold prices vulnerable to heightened volatility during and after the data. Gold prices in India inched lower today amid flat global rates. The Technical Confluences Detector shows that gold price is struggling below a powerful resistance around $1894, as it attempts a bounce from lower levels.
Gold is widely perceived as a store of value and hedge against inflation, therefore a higher-than-expected CPI reading may be positive for its prices.

According to COOIT, domestic Indian refineries are currently importing Crude Palm Oil after payment of ₹32 per kg as import duty and ₹41 per kg on Soya Crude Oil. The new company is expected to produce 108,000 to 114,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2022, with adjusted core earnings between $750 million and $800 million. They are importing palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and soyabean oil from Brazil and Argentina. Crude oil exports from Middle East picked up pace with higher exports from Saudi Arabi and UAE, while North African exports were lower.
Imperial Oil Ltd: JPMorgan raises target price to C$49 from C$42, anticipating a rebound in commodity prices and upstream production. The pipeline is key to landlocked Alberta’s efforts to boost crude exports from its oil sands. Oil prices fell, but overall optimism about strong demand recovery limited losses. Chinese oil imports fell in May according to official data as refineries underwent maintenance.
As for oil, currently a popular bet, the currency has accounted for about two thirds of its gains. “Nepal and Bangladesh are not the manufacturers of soyabean and/or palm oil.

This is the conundrum for our Treasury and Fed: keep printing money and cause inflation to run intractable, which will destroy the stock market and the economy. Just like when asking for the average household income, does one take the income earned in a year, and divide by all the households in the US? Last week, former New York Fed President William Dudley said the central bank will begin the process of tapering – winding down its monthly asset purchases – by year-end.
On the other hand however, an inflation overshoot may reignite fears about the Fed tapering stimulus and exerting downward pressure on the yellow metal. less The capital markets appear to be in a holding pattern ahead of this week’s big events, including the US CPI and the ECB meeting. The Fed’s unstated goal, of course, is for inflation to benefit the top 1% and no one else. The Fed may be forced by inflation realities to start tapering sooner than it (and Wall Street) would like.
Some Fed watchers are eying the August Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers as a potential time and place for officials to signal strongly on tapering. Or does one identify all the households in the US, rank them by income from top to bottom, and pick the one in the middle. June potential arrivals were now tracking at 313,000 tons according to Refinitiv tracking data, compared to May which saw just 180,000 tons arrive from the US.

China s wolf warriors are turning the world against Beijing LME s open outcry trading floor lives to holler another day. Lawmakers in China are making progress on legislation aimed at countering sanctions from the U.S. Read how China s Wolf Warriors are turning the world against Beijing.

U.S. President Joe Biden and U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson plan to use this week s Group of Seven leaders summit to rally support for a global vaccine push. Escalating dispute | The EU is ready to consider tougher retaliation if the U.K. fails to implement its post-Brexit obligations over Northern Ireland, according to a bloc official. With talks due tomorrow, patience in Brussels is running thin over what the EU sees as the U.K. s unilateral actions and threats.
Eurozone GDP 3rd reading due today however main focus will be on US CPI & ECB on Thursday. In addition to German macro, FX players are looking ahead to US inflation data and the ECB meeting on Thursday. His feature articles have been published on: FXstreet.com, Thestreet.com, Action forex, Forex TV, Istockanalyst, ForexFactory, Fxtraders.eu, Insidefutures.com, etc. Lagarde’s press conference carries downside risks.