Open: New York Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture March 03, 2021

A member of the National Guard plays a trumpet during a flag rai


MARKET NEWS Chicago soybean futures slid, after notching strong gains in the previous session, although worries about excessive rains in Brazil and dry weather in Argentina limited losses. Ukrainian wheat exports totalled 13.7 million tonnes as of Marc. The volume included 700,000 tonnes of wheat exported in February.


Dollar indexThe dollar index made an attempt to close above the resistance of 91.00 yesterday. Will this crash the dollar or are there reasons to doubt this story?Will Jay-Jay mean Nay-Nay for the Dollar? Despite the coming liquidity tsunami we would like to offer some reasons why the dollar may not weaken much – or at all. The safe-haven U.S. dollar remained broadly weaker as Treasury yields retreated further, restoring some calm to global markets and reigniting demand for riskier assets.
We expect growth outperformance (financial, fiscal and vaccination impulses), inflation outperformance (in part because of the dollar weakness in 2020) and a relatively more hawkish central bank(!) The dollar index has been sluggish since today morning and since 91.00 holds strong, it might attract fresh sellers resulting in a fall. Yet even without eye-catching moves, higher yields continue supporting the dollar. Bangladesh’s exports have risen by around 80% in dollar terms in the past decade, driven by the booming garment industry, while India and Pakistan’s exports have actually declined marginally.
FOREX: The U.S. dollar fell as investor sentiment improved and government bond yields extended their retreat, while commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars rose. The dollar edged higher.


We offer mass affluent, HNW, UHNW and institutional investors including family offices, gold, silver, platinum and palladium bullion in London, Zurich, Singapore, Hong Kong, Perth and soon Dubai. Shanghai aluminium prices rose to a near 9-1/2-year high, buoyed by concerns of supply cuts in China, the world’s biggest user and producer of the metal. The demand side is equally bullish, driven by government stimulus spending centered around infrastructure, particularly China which is the world’s largest copper importer.
less Copper prices continue to soar as the global economic recovery strengthens amid a backdrop of loose monetary and financial conditions, slowing Covid-19 infection rates, and shifting energy policies. A new all-time high would certainly solidify the bull case for copper and potentially beget even higher highs. Miguel published an article recently in which he expresses concern about some conspiracy theories circulating on the web with respect to the silver market.
He also noted how backwardation is a sign of shortage in the market, which is currently the case with silver. Miguel believes that there are plenty of reasons to buy silver but that the false conspiracy theories being spread about are not one of them! The green energy push is heavily reliant on metals like copper. While there are many gradations under close examination, the bullish narrative for copper can be broken down into simpler terms.


An industry body in the US estimated crude oil inventories to have increased by 7.4 million bbl as against a Reuters poll forecast of a draw of 928,000 bbl. Middle East fuel oil exports slumped last week to 653,000 MT, down 127,000 MT w-o-w. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Bahrain did not register any exports last week. Higher expectation of fuel consumption, a proxy for oil demand, points to a sharp recovery in industrial activity in the economy hit hard by the pandemic.
Kerry Says Hydrogen Is Jump Ball in Clean-Energy Race The U.S. oil and gas industry should embrace huge opportunities, the presidential climate envoy said. Oil prices have come under pressure amid uncertainty over how much supply OPEC+ will restore to the market at its Thursday meeting. The group is the largest actor in the oil market, with collective production covering more than 40% of worldwide demand. Gasoline stocks are estimated to have fallen by 9.9 million bbl against the poll forecast of a 2.3 million bbl decline.
Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories rose sharply by 7.4 million barrels in the week to February 26, data from an industry body showed.
Malaysian palm oil futures extended losses for a fourth straight session, dragged lower by expectations of higher stockpiles for end-February after exports dropped in the month. In Asia, Indian fuel demand will reach a record in the 12 months through March 2022, according to the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell of the nation’s oil ministry.

United States

This undercuts the Fed’s reliance on market-based measures of inflation – without their sharp increase in holdings, inflation expectations based on TIPs yields would be higher. Europe’s share of global EV sales doubled to 43% last year, while at the same time China and the U.S. saw market share decline, the Wall Street Journal reports. They’re willing to take a little risk with inflation, as Fed chair Jay Powell noted last week (see Bond Investors Are Right To Worry).
We’re using the PCE to describe inflation since it is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. Since leaving Wall Street I’ve dedicated my financial career towards studying this situation and helping people understand what’s actually happening. Increasing labor force participation by drawing discouraged workers back into the jobs market has gained more attention in recent years, both at the Fed and within Congress. Reserves were becoming scarce in August 2019, which triggered money market turbulence and shortly also “soft QE” by the Fed.
The precipitating event was President Donald Trump’s decision late last year to recognize Morocco’s claim to the mineral-rich region. While the old continent is struggling to get people to take the AstraZeneca jab, the US is ramping up the rollout and also production. Mr. Kotok’s articles and financial market commentaries have appeared in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, and other publications.


EU holds a 300m dose contract with the firm and remember that JnJ provides “full protection” at only one dose. With Prime Minister Boris Johnson setting June 21 as the earliest the economy can emerge fully from a third lockdown, Sunak has promised to support people and businesses. The European Union pushed back on this move, citing a longstanding United Nations consensus that the people of Western Sahara, known as Saharawis, have a right to self-determination.
One of the key ingredients to a larger progression in the EU will be the addition of JnJ to the supply. The EU countries have not.