Open: New York Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture March 10, 2021

A member of the National Guard plays a trumpet during a flag rai


US corn exports were also stable this month, but the USDA did increase China’s wheat feeding level by 5 mmt which is a bit negative for corn’s foreign demand. “In the current season, nearly four million tonnes of wheat will reach the silos, raising the reserves of this important strategic commodity,” the ministry said. U.S. holds corn, soybean supply view at seven-year low The U.S. Agriculture Department (USDA) left its outlook for domestic corn and soybean supplies unchanged at seven-year lows on Tuesday.
Similar to corn and beans, the USDA left wheat’s US balance sheet unchanged. In corn (CORN), the World Board also kept its 2020/21 US ending stocks unchanged. Brazil’s slow bean harvest and late safrina corn plantings (73% vs 91% 5 yr average) remain corn’s biggest production unknown over next 8-10 weeks. Over two decades ago Jay got his start at the Kansas City Board of Trade in the Wheat Futures pit. The US dollar value could be the factor if wheat hits or misses its goal.
The upcoming March 31 quarterly stocks will be barometer on corn’s 2nd half feed demand. Raw sugar futures fell 1.8% on Tuesday, breaking the 16-cent support level, amid a weak Brazilian currency and news of falling consumption and imports in the United States.


Dollar indexThe dollar index dropped on Tuesday and ended the session at 91.96 versus its previous close of 92.31, thus retracting below the resistance of 92.00. MARKET NEWS Gold inched lower after posting its biggest jump in two months in the previous session, as firmer U.S. Treasury yields and dollar eroded the metal’s appeal. Any signs of inflation overheating may intensify market speculation about the Fed tapering stimulus efforts and may fuel further strength in longer-dated yields as well as the US Dollar.
FOREX: The U.S. dollar rose, clawing back some of its losses sustained overnight, as U.S. yields found a floor following their drop from one-year highs. The U.S. dollar rose, clawing back some of the losses sustained overnight, as U.S. yields found a floor following their drop from one-year highs. The dollar index retreated from recent highs due to a pullback in US sovereign bond yields as the 10-year yield dipped to 1.523%. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.23 per cent to 92.16 ahead of the inflation data this Wednesday.
Gold prices retreated slightly during the APAC session on Wednesday as the US Dollar (DXY) index rebounded alongside longer-term Treasury yields. Topping the list of today’s underperforming currencies are the Australian dollar (-0.52%) and New Zealand dollar (-0.50%). Since the last week of February, the trend in dollar index is clearly bullish and the decline on Tuesday could well be a correction.


In the prior day, gold prices posted the biggest jump in two months as Treasury yields retreated after a strong 3-year note auction. Copper futures advanced in London on hopes of rising demand, but prices in Shanghai fell on fears of policy tightening by top consumer China. The EU is assessing whether schemes which certify that refiners are sourcing gold responsibly conform with conflict minerals regulation that came into force in the bloc this year. Last year, Geneva-based Mercuria agreed to buy about 10,000 tonnes of copper blister, an impure form of the metal, for delivery to China.
On the macro front, gold traders are eyeing US February consumer price index data for clues about the Fed’s future tapering trajectory. Gold prices are trading down by 0.3% at Rs 44,720 per 10 grams. Real yields exhibit a historically negative correlation with gold, with their 12-month correlation coefficient standing at -0.89. Further rises in real yields may serve to undermine gold prices, which is non-yielding.
In the previous session, gold had jumped 1.4% while silver had surged 2.6%, tracking a jump in global rates.
On MCX, gold futures were down 0.3% to Rs 44,732 per 10 grams while silver rates declined 0.7% to Rs 67,011.


Stockpiles in the world’s second-largest producer of palm oil fell 1.8% from January to a three-month low of 1.3 million tonnes, according to Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) data. First, figures for February are set to show a pick up in inflation, especially in headline prices fueled by rising oil prices. I have worked in the areas of oil refining, natural gas production, synthetic fuels, ethanol production, butanol production, and various biomass to energy projects.
The single biggest factor influencing changes in gasoline prices is almost always underlying changes in the price of oil. During the time gasoline prices rose by $0.46/gallon, the price of oil rose by $0.31/gallon. Show me a time that gasoline prices spiked or plunged, and the vast majority of the time you will find that oil followed the same pattern. While an attack on Saudi oil infrastructure failed to reduce Saudi production, OPEC+ producers continue to limit their output with their intention to stabilise the market .
I have over 20 years of international engineering experience in the chemicals, oil and gas, and renewable energy industries, and hold several patents related to my work. Assuming unchanged oil prices measured in DKK this effect will peak in April with a positive contribution of around 0.3% point. The country is a major player in the global offshore and marine industry where local companies dominate the market for oil rigs construction.

United States

In the futures market, non-commercials as of Tuesday last week were sitting on 23,493 net shorts in Nasdaq 100 index (mini) futures. Inflation will accordingly likely print markedly above the Fed target, also in core terms, already before summer. However, they increase the US seed usage by 1 million while dropping the residual by 1 million bu after last month’s higher Ag Forum seedings. As regards market-moving news, we would like to highlight the February CPI report, since this is a key data point both for the Fed and the FX market.
They also left the US bean export forecast the same after last month’s increase. Nasdaq Futures are trading down by 56 points (down 0.4%) while Dow Futures are trading down by 67 points (down 0.2%). The bond auction is due at around 18:00 GMT, around the time that the US House of Representatives is . Last Friday, after dropping 12 percent intraday from its all-time high set on February 16, the Nasdaq 100 reversed with a daily hammer.
The Fed doesn’t want to admit that it would stop such a movement because that would impact current markets. Despite the recent strength in the US domestic crush (5 records in last 5 months), the USDA decided to leave this demand unchanged.


A divided and reluctant ECB could increase the sensitivity of EUR rates to another leg higher in USD rates. EUR rates have moved sideways during recent weeks despite USD rates continuing higher, begging the questions: Will the ECB walk the walk? Repricing of inflation The 2023 point in the staff projections for inflation is crucial to see if the ECB agrees with the technical nature of the inflation prints. Buying a 3y1y seagull utilises the rolldown in rates as well as on the vol curve to give decent carry with limited downside unless markets start pricing ECB hikes.
However, with the repricing of EUR inflation, 10y real rates have actually come down since Lagarde’s intervention!
The ECB discussion about nominal vs real rates changes. It might be a fine balance, but it could matter to market perception whether the ECB comes out as content or as divided. Vaccines are a flashpoint in post-Brexit relations, with about a third of Britons but only 6% of the European Union s population receiving a dose so far. GDP-weighted 10y government bond yields, which Lagarde referred to in her Sintra speech – are above zero.
New opportunities may follow in the aftermath of the ECB meeting.