Open: New York Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture March 15, 2021

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Agriculture

The U.S. Department of Agriculture on March 9 published its monthly supply and demand report and left domestic balance sheets for corn and soybeans unchanged from the previous month. Asking prices for Ukrainian-origin 12.5% protein wheat stood at $279 to $286 per tonne FOB Black Sea, the consultancy said in a report. Money managers and hedge funds cut their bullish bet in raw sugar by 14,914 contracts for the period, bringing their net long position in the sweetener to 134,309 contracts.
Raw sugar prices closed down amid risk-off sentiment in wider financial markets and a stronger dollar, though near term supply tightness limited losses.

Currencies

The U.S. dollar gained as rising bond yields forced traders to cut their bearish dollar bets to four-month lows while gold prices edged higher on prospects of higher inflation. The dollar gained as rising bond yields forced traders to cut their bearish dollar bets to four-month lows while gold prices edged up on prospects of higher inflation. FOREX: The dollar gained for a second consecutive session as rising U.S. Treasury yields forced traders to cut their bearish dollar bets to four-month lows.
The dollar gained for a second consecutive session as rising U.S. Treasury yields forced traders to cut their bearish dollar bets to four-month lows. In FX markets, the cyclically-sensitive New Zealand Dollar and Canadian Dollar climbed higher alongside the haven-associated US Dollar and Swiss Franc. POINT: The Fed’s choice is to trash the dollar to save the economy, or trash the economy to save the dollar. The US Dollar is supported by rising bond yields a ahead of President Joe Biden’s speech at 17:45 GMT (UUP).
Brent crude, the international standard, added 47 cents to $69.69 per barrel.The US dollar rose to 109.18 Japanese yen from 109.02 yen late Friday. The euro was down 0.2% against the U.S. dollar, with 1 euro buying $1.19. At this point, as long as the US dollar (UDN) continues to get sold, it makes sense that Bitcoin would continue to gain.

Metals

Tracking a similar global trend, gold prices today edged higher in Indian markets, On MCX, gold futures were up 0.4% to Rs 44,915 per 10 grams. Subsequent rebounds in stocks, bonds, and real estate took valuations to levels as high or higher (much higher for stocks and gold) than before the turbulence took hold. less Gold and crude oil prices traded modestly higher during Monday’s APAC morning session following Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s comment on inflation over the weekend.
In global markets, gold prices were marginally higher as the passage of a US stimulus bill raised concerns over inflation risks. Gold prices have fallen 6.3% since February 10th, while crude oil prices have climbed 13.3% during the same period. Note that gold is typically considered a hedge against inflation, but higher bond yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. In the previous session, gold had hit a near one-year low when it touched Rs 44,271 per 10 grams at session’s low.
Gold traders will closely watch this week’s announcement alongside the BoE and BOJ meetings for clues about global central banks’ take on inflation and economic recovery. After falling sympathetically with other markets, gold’s price began an aggressive climb of more than 40% in just four months’ time. While stocks and real estate continued their climb to lofty levels, gold began a seven-month slide back to its pre-pandemic price.

Oil

Oil prices rose as data showed China’s economic recovery accelerated at the start of 2021, boosting the energy demand outlook at the world’s largest oil importer. Oil prices advanced as data showed China’s economic recovery accelerated at the start of 2021, boosting the energy demand outlook at the world’s largest oil importer. Saudi seaborne crude exports for last week were seen at 38.4 million bbl (5.5 million bpd) compared to the revised 49.6 million bbl (7.1 million bpd) the week prior.
Malaysian palm oil futures rallied for a ninth straight session, lifted by a jump in prices of crude and rival edible oils following a tightening in global supplies.
In the past month, we have seen higher US rates having an adverse effect on stocks and thereby also on NOK, even though oil prices have risen. According to Baker Hughes, the Oil Rig count in the US for last week dropped by 1 to 309, while Natural Gas rigs held steady at 92. Refinitiv Oil Research saw exports continuing to make the trans-Atlantic voyage last week with 148,000 tons exported while the week prior saw 260,000 tons.
Energy giants view these efforts as balancing customer demands for more oil and gas while fitting in a lower-carbon energy world. Oil prices are up as economic data from China added to signs of recovery from the pandemic. The data exclude trader positions in the NYMEX financial crude oil futures contract, which is normally included in our aggregate calculations.

United States

The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.6 per cent, to 13,319.86.The Russell 2000 index of smaller company stocks advanced 0.6 per cent to 2,352.79. Bond pros are also watching to see whether Fed officials will tweak their interest rate outlook, which now does not include any rate hikes through 2023. The sharp increase in the US treasury yields once again put global investors nervous and on sell mode, they added. Many expect interest rates to continue to rise in the coming months and investors will have to continually grapple with the anxiety about economic overheating and Fed tightening.
During World War 2 the bond investors made this patriotic choice, today maybe not so much, hence the Fed buying could be exponential. As well as the Fed this week, investors have the Bank of England on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday. Ned Davis Research estimates that a 2% yield in the US 10-year bond could lead the Nasdaq to fall 20%, and with it the entire stock market globally.
Mr Tata invests in start-ups and technology companies,” the company said in a regulatory filing. Three other major sources of the mineral are the US (6.8 million tonnes), Australia (6.5 million tonnes) and China (4.5 million tonnes). Meanwhile, the NASDAQ Composite remains below a couple of key moving average lines, having bumped into them as resistance earlier in the week.

China

Beijing extended a subsidy of ₹1.82 lakh-2.55 lakh for an electric car that had a driving range of 300 km last year. Beijing sees orange as sandstorm brings worst air since 2017. Beijing has increased its battery manufacturing capacity, thanks to its dominance in lithium refining. Shifting winds out of Beijing could blow that out of reach for quite a while.

Europe

EU considers getting a vaccine boost from Russia’s Sputnik Publicly, the European Union has dismissed Russia’s global coronavirus vaccine supply campaign as a propaganda stunt by an undesirable regime. Following last week’s promise to increase the pace of bond purchases, ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks warned that higher yields won’t always spur a similar move. Disastrous election results for Angela Merkel, pressure on vaccines and a big week for central banks.
Voters in the southern state of Baden-Wuerttemberg, Germany’s third-most populous, shifted towards Greens and Liberals, which could see Merkel’s conservatives ejected from its ruling coalition there. In both states, Angela Merkel’s CDU lost significantly (by around 4 percentage points) but remained the second largest party. By now, I have built up excellent skills and experience in analyzing macroeconomic and political developments in Europe, the Eurozone and Germany, including ECB watching.
Malmstrom was long seen as a front-runner given her experience as EU trade commissioner. Main focus: Europe, Eurozone, Germany and ECB.

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