Open: New York Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture March 25, 2021

A member of the National Guard plays a trumpet during a flag rai


Iraq expects to produce 5 million tonnes of local wheat Iraq is expected to produce 5 million tonnes of wheat locally this season, deputy agriculture minister Mahdi al-Jabouri said. Commodity experts at Marex Spectron estimate the 2021-22 global coffee deficit at around 10.7 million bags, compared with previous figures of approximately 8 million bags. Besides the creeping deficit set to materialize this year, coffee importers in the US have also dealt with a global shortage of shipping containers.
The volume of French wheat exports to China has surged in the past year, as France is among the few approved suppliers able to capture robust Chinese demand. The agency said it would also increase by approximately $5.6 billion payments made to cattle producers and growers of crops like corn and soybeans. COVID-19 disrupted agricultural supply chains last year, though corn and soybean prices are now at multi-year highs. less A coffee shortage appears to be brewing as global supplies could shift into a deficit as drought in Brazil slashes output.
Source: Bloomberg In conjunction with adverse weather conditions in South America, lower inventories mean the coffee market will tighten and support higher prices. MARKET NEWS U.S. soybean futures fell for the first time in five sessions, as a strong U.S. dollar weighed on export prospects. The wheat surplus in the April-May harvest would be stockpiled rather than exported, Jabouri added.


Meanwhile, benchmark 10-year Treasury yields consolidated around 1.6 per cent, a week after hitting a more than one-year top of 1.754 per cent, which had also supported the dollar. Interestingly, the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar are back at the top of the leaderboard. MARKET NEWS Gold prices held steady as a stronger U.S. dollar countered concerns that surging COVID-19 cases across Europe could slow the pace of economic recovery. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.03 per cent to 92.55.
Surging coronavirus cases and a dip in US bond yields supported the safe-haven appeal of gold while a stronger US dollar weighed on the precious metal. The Dollar Index is at its best level since last November and is pushing above the 200-day moving average for the first time since last May. The dollar got a boost as UST yields rebounded from weekly lows as well as concerns about the economic impact of Covid-19 that continues to drag down Europe.
Copper prices fell to their lowest in more than two weeks, as a stronger dollar made greenback-priced metals more expensive to holders of other currencies. At the interbank forex market, the rupee opened significantly lower at 72.68 a dollar, but recouped some of its losses as morning trade progressed. Easing US treasury yields provided support to the precious metal at lower levels while a strong dollar capped the rise.


less Gold prices edged higher amid what looked like a retracement across a wide range of benchmark assets following the prior day’s risk-off fireworks. Gold prices are trading down by 0.1% at Rs 44,805 per 10 grams. In global markets, gold prices were flat today amid mixed cues. On MCX, gold futures for April delivery were flat at Rs 44,897 per 10 grams. Gold prices in India struggled today amid mixed global cues. That might help underpin gold and crude oil as the haven USD buying lets up and energy demand hopes flicker, but follow-through probably needs a more meaningful catalyst.
Spot gold was steady at US$ 1,734.8 per ounce. In a way, these can become optionality plays because the ability to finance the project is leveraged to the Gold price. Gold prices are idling at support-turned-resistance in the 1747.74-65.30 area. S&P 500 futures pointed to a gain at the open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.621% and gold slipped.


Malaysian palm oil futures inched down for a second straight session, as cheaper crude oil and soyoil contracts cancelled out optimism around improving March exports. Oil prices fell on revived worries about demand for oil products. Suncor, meanwhile, has focused its business on oil sands, one of the most energy-intensive and high-emitting forms of oil production. Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures fell 1.04 per cent to $63.55 per barrel. Although oil supply in Europe might be under threat due to the blockage of the Suez Canal, lower demand due to increasing coronavirus cases is limiting demand.
Crude oil prices also recovered after hitting a one-month low in the prior session, with the front-month WTI contract erasing nearly all of the prior day’s losses.
But a pandemic-driven crash in oil prices last year pushed away investors from the shale industry, forcing companies to look at asset sales and mergers for survival. COVID-19 is also on deadly rampage in countries like India and Brazil, which account for around 8% of global oil demand. Crude inventories rose by 1.9 million barrels in the week ended March 19 to 502.7 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 272,000-barrel drop.
After the PMI report and the announcement of the blocking of the Suez Canal, oil prices rose sharply.

United States

Nasdaq Futures are trading up 23 points (up 0.2%) while Dow Futures are trading up 91 points (up 0.3%) The rupee is trading at 72.60 against the US$. The Nasdaq, home to tech and many growth stocks, was down 2% Wednesday, lower for a second day, as Treasury yields also fell. Now, sellers are showing up even as the US economy is expected to boom this year, with growth slowdown in subsequent years. Worth just $1.2 billion a year ago, Nasdaq-listed Futu Holdings Ltd. has surged in value and at its peak in February was worth nearly $26 billion.
US stock futures are trading higher today, indicating a positive opening for Wall Street. We saw that in 2020, when Republicans refused to pass a second relief bill all summer and fall, even though doing so might have saved Trump s presidency. Fed speak in focus as well as US GDP, jobless claims & PCE inflation data coming up. The data, released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, is unlikely to change the wider outlook for the labor market or Fed policy.
Since leaving Wall Street I’ve dedicated my financial career towards studying this situation and helping people understand what’s actually happening. Nasdaq-100 futures edged up 0.4%, indicating that technology stocks may recover some ground.


Popular Chinese actor Wang Yibo terminated his contract as a representative for Nike in response to social media criticism over the company’s Xinjiang statement, his agency said on Weibo. H&M, Nike face boycotts in China as Xinjiang becomes wedge issue.


The EU and the UK kicked off talks to defuse tensions around vaccine distribution and released an initial statement in which they vowed to strive for a “win-win” situation. The EU s top court rules in challenges by Deutsche Telekom and its unit Slovak Telekom to topple EU antitrust fines 9:30 a.m. There was some good news on the vaccine front with the European Union and the U.K. signaling an easing of tensions over supplies. The U.K. and EU pledge vaccine cooperation, the Suez canal blockage continues, North Korea fires a missile and Bitcoin’s on a losing run.
Assuring an ongoing supply of doses is positive news, but progress hinges on calm at Thursday’s EU Summit. While the virus continues to dominate its priorities, the challenges the EU faces are now different. After the ECB cut interest rates to below zero in 2014, economies in the eurozone improved and expectations were that rates would rise in a few years. Angela Merkel s apology for a German lockdown plan abandoned within 48 hours was a singular moment in politics.
Meanwhile, Italy hopes to ease its lockdown after Easter, while German Chancellor Angela Merkel dropped plans for a five-day strict shutdown.
Calls for a referendum to reunify Ireland are growing amid the forces unleashed by Brexit and shifting demographics.Overlooked war | Africa s biggest-ever private investment is in jeopardy.