Open: New York Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture May 05, 2021

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Agriculture

With S. Am analysts cutting their corn (CORN) output, the USDA could cut Brazil’s crop by 8 mmt to 101 mmt. Given this year’s early arrival of the dry season in April, Brazil’s overall corn output is under threat despite a sizable jump in plantings this year. Price rises Whether it’s corn, iron ore, lumber or oil, commodity prices are surging as large parts of the global economy reopen after the pandemic. Traditionally, the USDA’s May new-crop 2021/22 corn balance sheet utilizes their Ag Outlook demand and yield ideas along with their March plantings.
This week’s US plantings rose by 29% to 46%; 10% higher than corn’s early May 5-yr average. After April’s post-quarterly stocks adjustments in US feed & ethanol 2020/21 corn demand outlooks, we don’t expect any changes in these USDA forecasts this month. This postponed their 2nd crop safrina corn seedings past its optimal February period. South American crop concerns have provided the latest support to the corn market.
However, corn’s current export sales are just 9 million bu. Futures surged this week above $7 a bushel for the first time in more than eight years on the Chicago Board of Trade, alongside increases for soybeans and wheat.

Currencies

Due to the way that GDP is calculated, a dollar of counterproductive spending is the same as a dollar of productive spending. The New Zealand dollar is also inside yesterday’s range (~$0.7115-$0.7205) but has resurfaced above the 20-day moving average, which it settled below yesterday for the first time since mid-April. Gene comments on stock, bond, dollar, oil & gold markets, with a particular emphasis on monetary policy, technology issues and S&P intraday action.
less Gold prices inched higher on Wednesday after the U.S. dollar eased off a two-week peak. The dollar index fell 0.1% against its rivals and made the yellow metal less expensive for investors using other currencies. The dollar weakened, while gold futures were slightly higher. The U.S. dollar weakened, while gold futures were slightly higher. The pace of vaccinations has picked up even in the Euro area, while also seasonal variation is aiding in pushing new Covid-19 infections lower.
The Bloomberg survey median forecast was for a 3% gain, but the Australian dollar is within yesterday’s range (~$0.7675-$0.7765). The Swiss franc, the euro and the British pound fell 0.4%, 0.3% and 0.1% respectively against the U.S. dollar.

Metals

Gold prices are trading flat at Rs 46,876 per 10 grams. Barrick Gold Corp: The company reported a 78% rise in first-quarter profit helped by rising gold and copper prices, and said it was on track to meet annual guidance. On the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX), June gold futures rose 0.2%, or Rs 74, to trade at Rs 46,945 per 10 grams. Spot gold is currently trading at $1,776.47 per ounce as of 0831 GMT (GLD). Gold prices were trading higher in domestic markets in early trade today amid mixed economic data and contrasting comments from Fed officials and the US treasury secretary.
The Gold Analyst offers quality technical and fundamental analysis of the price of gold to help educate readers in their investment decisions. less The rebound in Gold and gold mining stocks has been weak. Even with the recent volatility in prices, gold remains among the best-performing commodities this year to combat the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. GDX & GDXJ Weekly Candles Sure, gold stocks have outperformed gold, but their other metrics have been weak.
From a technical standpoint, Tuesday’s downside reversal reinforces that the oversold rebound in the gold stocks could be over.

Oil

Marathon Oil Corp: JPMorgan raises target price to $73 from $70, after the company reported strong first-quarter earnings across all segments led by refining. Oil prices traded higher as Brent crude futures rose 1.2% to trade at $69.73 per barrel, while US WTI crude futures rose 1.2% to trade at $66.45 a barrel. According to a US oil and gas agency, commercial crude stocks in the country plunged by 7.69 million bbl in the week ending the 30th April. Still, gasoline stocks fell by 5.31 million bbl, compared to expectations of a 652,000 bbl decrease.
Pioneer’s total average realized price surged about 41% from the previous three months to $42.75 per barrel of oil equivalent in the quarter. That was when oil was well above $100 per barrel. A Reuters poll had predicted a draw of 2.35 million bbl in crude stocks and a 0.5 percentage points increase in refinery runs. A steep drop in U.S. crude inventories also supported prices after data from an industry body showed stockpiles fell by 7.7 million barrels in the week ended April 30.
A sharp fall in US oil inventories, according to API, is helping oil continue its rally. On Tuesday, the API said crude stocks dropped by 7.7 million barrels in the week ended April 30.

United States

She later said that it does not predict nor recommend raising rates and also said it is the Fed’s job, highlighting the bank’s independence. Even a decade after the last turning point, when Paul Volcker, Fed chairman, quashed inflation at the expense of a deep recession, annual price rises again passed 6%. Investors also reacted negatively to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s comments that the Fed may have to raise rates if Biden’s spending plans go forward.
The Fed outlook is also likely to be repriced later this year when the central bank starts to change its rhetoric. less The improving macro environment and stronger inflation signals are likely to convince at least the Fed to change course. Yellen later clarified that she was not forecasting or recommending a Fed rate hike and emphasized her support for the independence of the central bank. The index-extension in SGBs is however huge and will for Nasdaq OMX take place in late May while for HB bond index it will take place 7th May.
in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University less U.S. stock futures traded higher in early pre-market trade after the Nasdaq dipped more than 260 points in the previous session. The Fed has adopted a new, softer target of average inflation of 2%, meaning it can overshoot for years to make up for the past decade’s misses. Still, declining birth rates are a problem across the developed world, and the US is no exception.

China

The board was launched in 2019 with backing from President Xi Jinping, as a fundraising base for China’s homegrown technology champions.

Europe

France s maritime minister suggested her government could cut off electricity to the Channel island of Jersey, amid a row with the U.K. over post-Brexit fishing rights.And finally … It will involve creating an industry alliance of Europe’s leading semiconductor companies and research centers as well as more than a dozen EU governments, Breton said. Meanwhile, the EU is backing intrusive rules to prevent foreign state-funded firms such as those from China from undercutting EU rivals.
Meanwhile, Brussels is backing intrusive rules to prevent foreign state-funded firms such as those from China from undercutting EU rivals. The European Union is planning new carbon tariffs, while the U.K. has new restrictions even on trade with parts of itself thanks to its botched exit from the EU. The ECB is then likely to start tapering the PEPP in the autumn, as the recovery strengthens, and end net purchases under the programme in March 2022. Even as an end to lockdowns approach, Brexit means London may not spring back to life.

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